Fantasy baseball: National League offseason moves
It's 2015, and your fantasy baseball draft will be here before you know it. Here's a look at the notable National League transactions/acquisitions that you might have missed while watching football over the last few months. When you're done, check out Ryan Fowler's look at the American League moves.
National League East
Nick Markakis - Braves
Markakis was his normal self in 2014 â his .276-14-50 line with 81 runs are all somewhat close to his numbers from the previous two seasons. The 31-year-old had neck fusion surgery in December to repair a herniated disc, but he's expected to be ready for Opening Day, and figures to bat second in a revamped (and weakened) Braves' lineup. Markakis is no more than a OF5 in mixed leagues.
Shelby Miller - Braves
Remember how good Miller was in the first half of 2013? And how he fell off a cliff late that season, without much improvement in early 2014? Well, the hardthrowing Miller had a 2.93 ERA in August/September, thanks in some part to working on pitch location. At just 24 years old, he's an interesting bounceback candidate, and he'll probably come somewhat cheap on draft day.
Albert Callaspo - Braves
Callaspo is as boring as they come from a fantasy perspective - and a real-life one - but he'll probably be the Opening Day second baseman in Atlanta. Zzz ...
Dee Gordon - Marlins
Gordon figures to bat leadoff for the Marlins, with blazing speed as his calling card. It's OK to be concerned that he stole 43 bases before last season's All-Star break and just 21 after it, but 50 steals seem like a good bet. Gordon isn't much of a hitter despite last season's high BA, but it's not like the Marlins have anyone good to take his place. There aren't 10 fantasy second basemen you'd rather own.
Martin Prado - Marlins
Prado will probably bat .280 with a dozen home runs and not much else. He's eligible at 2B/3B.
Mike Morse - Marlins
Morse has some power, but his numbers will take a hit in Miami's expansive ballpark. If he can stay healthy â which is always his issue â he could get plenty of RBI opportunities batting behind Giancarlo Stanton. Morse is probably not worth drafting in 12-team mixed leagues, though.
Mat Latos - Marlins
Latos started just 16 games during an injury-plagued 2014, and had offseason elbow surgery. However, he should be ready for Opening Day, and started more than 30 games in each season from 2010-13. There's risk involved here, but a rebound seems likely, and Miami's big ballpark with help Latos' numbers. SP3.
Michael Cuddyer - Mets
You're not in Coors Field anymore, Mr. Cuddyer. Your high batting averages should return to the .270 range, and you probably won't reach 20 home runs. New York is a fun place to live, though.
National League Central
Miguel Montero & David Ross - Cubs
Why do the Cubs hate Welington Castillo? Ross should serve mainly as Jon Lester's personal catcher, with Montero and his modest power (he's averaged 14 home runs over the last four seasons) handling most of the rest of the duties. On a non-fantasy note, check out this FanGraphs article on Montero's pitch-framing skills for some background on why the Cubs likely acquired him.
Jon Lester - Cubs
Ace, ace, baby. Lester posted a 2.46 ERA with 220 strikeouts against 48 walks in 219 2/3 innings in 2014, with the ERA and K/BB ratio easily being the best of his career. He's a top-12 fantasy starter.
Jason Hammel - Cubs
Hammel had a solid 2014 (3.47 ERA, 1.12 WHIP in 176 1/3 innings), but he's too inconsistent to trust as more than a mixed-league SP5 (or maybe even an SP6).
Jason Motte - Cubs
Motte missed all of 2013 due to Tommy John surgery, and threw just 25 innings in 2014. NL-only owners should keep him on their in-season free-agent radar, because if his once-fearsome velocity returns and closer Hector Rondon struggles, saves could come.
Marlon Byrd - Reds
Byrd strikes out a lot, doesn't walk much and plays bad defense, but he's hit 49 home runs over the last two seasons while batting .277. Those looking for a fifth outfielder in a mixed league could do worse.
Anthony DeSclafani - Reds
DeSclafani is a moderately interesting prospect who came to Cincinnati in the Latos trade. He'll compete for a slot in the Reds' rotation, and could be worth a late NL-only pick if he wins it. DeSclafani's track record suggests good control with a decent K rate.
Francisco Liriano - Pirates
Lots of walks, ground balls and strikeouts here. Liriano has averaged 160 innings over his last three seasons, and that's about what you should expect in 2015. He's OK as a mixed-league SP4 after re-signing with the Buccos. Sure, he could be great if he cuts his walk rate again, but expecting that from a 31-year-old pitcher isn't wise.
Jayson Heyward - Cardinals
Contract drives are more myth than reality, but if Heyward hits more home runs this season, he'll get approximately 80 kajillion dollars in free agency next winter. Unfortunately, he's been a disappointing fantasy player, with his production being just OK across the board. He's a low-end OF2 for standard mixed leagues.
National League West
Yasmani Tomas - Diamondbacks
The D-backs signed the powerful, 24-year-old Cuban to a six-year deal, and he's currently listed at third base on the team's depth chart (though he might move to a corner outfield spot). This article from Just a bit Outside compares Tomas to such players as Justin Upton, Dayan Viciedo and Mark Trumbo, and that's obviously a pretty wide range. Don't expect Tomas to be Jose Abreu just because he's Cuban, but you can squeeze him onto a 12-team mixed league roster if your league gives him 3B eligibility.
Jeremy Hellickson - Diamondbacks
Remember when we all thought Hellickson was going to be really good? Now he's not even a good NL-only option.
Nick Hundley - Rockies
Hey, NL-only owners: Hundley might not be much of a hitter, but he did hit 13 homers for the Padres in 2013. Even as a part-timer, he could reach double digits thanks to Planet Coors.
Howie Kendrick - Dodgers
Yeah, we know: Kendrick doesn't do anything very well from a fantasy perspective. However, his rankings at his position last year were:
BA: .293 (3rd)
HR: 7 (T-10)
RBI: 75 (5th)
R: 85 (5th)
SB: 14 (6th)
Kendrick isn't an elite fantasy option at his position, but he should be in your top 10.
Jimmy Rollins - Dodgers
At age 36, J-Roll will still probably hit 10-15 home runs and steal 20 bases, but his batting average (.249 over the last three seasons) has become a liability. His power-speed combo will cause him to go too early in your draft, and you should pass.
Yasmani Grandal - Dodgers
Grandal batted .225 with 15 homers for the Padres last year, but his minor-league track record suggests that his BA will improve. He's an interesting candidate for improvement, but the fantasy analyst community seems to like him a lot, so expect to see his name in lots of sleeper articles. That doesn't mean you should avoid Grandal, but don't expect him to come too cheap.
Casey McGehee - Giants
McGehee had a decent 2014, but he has a .264 career BA without much power. Avoid, mixed leaguers.
Jake Peavy - Giants
Peavy re-signed in San Francisco after posting a 2.17 ERA in 12 regular season starts following a trade from Boston. Unfortunately, Peavy's performance over the past five seasons (4.00 ERA) suggests that a repeat is unlikely.
Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Wil Myers, Derek Norris, Will Middlebrooks - Padres
Check out Ryan Fowler's stand-alone piece on the Padres, who have probably made two or three trades since you started reading this article.
James Shields - Padres
Shields gets a nice home park boost with his move to San Diego. His strikeouts have been down for two consecutive seasons, but PETCO keeps him among the top 25 starters on draft day.
Brandon Morrow - Padres
The 30-year-old Morrow has been a staple on fantasy breakout lists since approximately 1987. His stuff is impressive, but he's ALWAYS hurt. The Padres will apparently consider Morrow for a rotation spot (which is what he wants), but he's no lock to get one, and his blazing heat would be very interesting coming out of the bullpen. In an NL-only league, Morrow looks like a nice late-round lottery-ticket grab.