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FanDuel MLB: Picks and Pivots for Thursday September 29

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 1:58 p.m. ET

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Sep 28, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays left fielder Ezequiel Carrera (3) slides safely into third as Baltimore Orioles third baseman Manny Machado (13) leaps for a high throw in the first inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports FanDuel MLB

FanDuel MLB: Picks and Pivots for September 29

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy baseball column focused on providing analysis and insights into the top FanDuel MLB lineups. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!

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Thursday’s MLB action kicks off with two early games at 1:05PM EST and an additional 10 games on the 7:05PM EST Main Slate.

I will continue to track winning Tournament lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.

The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:

Now on to the picks…For more DFS Strategy insights, check out my latest article to help take your game to the next level! I highly recommend gamers track their game performance across the various types of games they play – GPP’s, Cash, Multipliers etc – as this simple exercise will help teach you more about profitable roster construction than you can imagine.

Sep 18, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Danny Duffy (41) tips his hat to fans after being relieved in the eighth inning against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won 10-3. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Danny Duffy ($9,200): At the top end of the pitching pricing tier, there is one arm that stands out as my top choice as Duffy gets a home start against the Twins. In two previous starts against Minnesota, Duffy has put up 41 and 42 FanDuel points while striking out 14 over 12.2 innings pitched.

Over the last month, Duffy has increased his strikeout rate to 27.5% and as a healthy favorite (-171) he makes for a relatively safe play with high upside. The Twins have scuffled offensively over the last 30 days, batting just .229 and striking out 26.3% of the time.

If you are looking to drop down in price and want to target a GPP arm that I expect few will be on,  you can look towards Josh Collmenter($5,600) who gets a home start against the Phillies.

Collmenter has made two starts as a member of the Braves, putting up 39 and 45 FanDuel points in back to back wins over the Marlins and Nationals. Collmenter has been able to put up one strikeout per inning pitched and although the line opened with him as a minor -135 favorite, we are already seeing movement up to -150 which implies that Vegas is on the Atlanta side of this game.

I love the idea on this slate of targeting a cheap win and loading up on bats and I expect very few people will have the guts to play Collmenter.

Sep 23, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Seattle Mariners second baseman Robinson Cano (22) and third baseman Kyle Seager (15) celebrate designated hitter Nelson Cruz (23) home run in the eighth inning against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Mariners bats versus Kendall Graveman: Graveman has given up a hard contact rate of 32.3% to left-handed bats and the Mariners bats have some significant BvP advantages against him in their careers. Robinson Cano ($3,300) & Kyle Seager ($3,200) sit at very reasonable price points and considering the the .329 wOBA Graveman is surrendering this seems like a great upside spot for both left-handed bats.

Cano is also 6 for 13 with one home run against Graveman for all of the BvP lovers out there. Nelson Cruz ($4,000) may be overlooked at this elevated price point but has 10 hits in 15 at bats against Graveman and is one of the highest upside bats on the slate.

On the other side of this game, Ariel Miranda has given up a 35-36% hard contact rate to hitters from both sides of the plate and right-handed hitters have a 2 HR/9 rate against him this season. Khris Davis ($3,200) is another high upside bat at a very reasonable price point and I love the idea of stacking this late game as the later games typically get overlooked in tournaments.

Freedie Freeman ($4,200) has been on an incredibly quiet tear, riding a 29 game hitting streak and averaging 19 points per game over the last two weeks. Freeman has double-digit points in eight straight games and with a home date against Jeremy Hellickson will likely be overlook with David Ortiz priced right above him which may give us Freeman at a lower than expected ownership!

Sep 27, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman (5) celebrates his run scored off of a single by center fielder Mallex Smith (not pictured) in the eighth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Turner Field. The Braves won 7-6. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Below you will find my initial lineup for Thursday’s Main FanDuel MLB slate including notes/comments on my roster construction.

Want your voice heard? Join the Fantasy CPR team!

Best of luck tonight gamers!

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