Whether you're a college basketball junkie or a novice, filling out a bracket with the correct winner of the NCAA tournament can be a daunting task. That's because parity among so many teams makes it nearly impossible to predict which one will make a run to the title.
If recent history has taught us anything, it's that the top seeds aren't guaranteed much of anything. Last season, for example, there wasn't a single No. 1 or No. 2 seed that advanced to the Final Four, the first time that had occurred since seeding began in 1979.
Instead, the Final Four contained a No. 11 seed in Virginia Commonwealth and a No. 8 seed in Butler. The Bulldogs came out of nowhere to reach the national championship game for a second straight season.
Given what VCU and Butler accomplished, it appears more possible than ever that a surprise team could win a national championship.
What that idea in mind, here is a list of eight teams in this year's NCAA tournament field seeded No. 3 or worse that could make a serious run at a national title:
No. 3 seed: Florida State: The Seminoles are riding high after winning their first Atlantic Coast Conference tournament championship since joining the league in 1991. But it's the way in which Florida State won the tournament — surviving Duke and North Carolina — that makes this team seem capable of achieving something special in the NCAA tournament. Florida State became the first team since Georgia Tech 16 years ago to beat the Blue Devils and Tar Heels twice in one season. The Seminoles have a leading man in Michael Snaer (14.5 points per game) who is unafraid to take the big shot, as evidenced by his two game-winning 3-pointers at the buzzer this season. They also have veteran leadership in Bernard James, a 27-year-old forward who served three tours of duty in the Air Force and is one of the team's top defensive players. This is a balanced team with seven different players in the regular rotation that average 6.7 points or more.
No. 4 seed: Louisville: If last year's NCAA tournament taught us anything, it's that winning the Big East tournament championship can catapult a team to a national championship. That's what Connecticut unexpectedly accomplished last season, and Louisville hopes to follow in the Huskies' footsteps. Cardinals point guard Peyton Siva struggled for much of this season because he played too fast for his own good, according to Louisville coach Rick Pitino. But Siva appears to have figured it out after earning MVP honors at the Big East tournament. His ability to handle the ball and involve teammates is crucial because the Cardinals have plenty of scorers. Louisville has been bounced from the NCAA tournament in its first game in each of the last two seasons, so you have to think the Cardinals will be out to prove something this time around.
No. 5 seed: Vanderbilt: Any team that shoots the 3-pointer as well as Vanderbilt has to be considered a threat to run the table in the NCAA tournament. The Commodores have made 294 3-pointers this season, tied for the third-most in the country. Vanderbilt's John Jenkins has made more 3s (129) than any other player in the nation. Jenkins will likely be the focal point of opposing defenses because he averages 19.9 points per game, but Jeffery Taylor and Festus Ezeli also average in double figures. Much like Florida State and Louisville, Vanderbilt enters the NCAA tournament with a wave of momentum after winning its first SEC tournament championship since 1951. Beating Kentucky for the title shows Vanderbilt can play with any team in college basketball. Yes, the Commodores have 10 losses — which is a lot for a possible national championship team. But so did North Carolina State in 1983 and Villanova in 1985, and things worked out all right for both of those title teams.
No. 6 seed: Murray State: The Racers didn't receive much love by being given a No. 6 seed in the NCAA tournament, but they've been defying the odds all season. What's a low seed mean to a team that is 30-1, anyway? Some might point out that Murray State didn't play the toughest opponents in the Ohio Valley Conference, and the team's strength of schedule doesn't even crack the top 150. Still, Murray State did beat Southern Mississippi, Memphis and Saint Mary's — all teams that are in the NCAA tournament field. Racers point guard Isaiah Canaan might be the most entertaining player to watch in the entire tournament. Canaan once hit seven 3-pointers in one half against Austin Peay this season. Donte Poole and Ivan Aska provide some scoring relief for Canaan, who is a Bob Cousy Award finalist for national point guard of the year. The madness of March would reach a fever pitch if the Racers were to run the table.
No. 7 seed: Saint Mary's: Saint Mary's has never made it past the Sweet 16, so a national championship certainly would be a surprise to most folks. Still, the Gaels can't be counted out because, like Murray State, they have one of the five best point guards in the country in Matthew Dellavedova. The 6-foot-4 junior from Australia is a finalist for the Bob Cousy Award, and he averages 6.4 assists per game, the 11th-best mark in the country. Saint Mary's already eclipsed one plateau by winning both the West Coast Conference regular-season title outright and the postseason championship for the first time ever, so this is clearly a special team. Senior Rob Jones averages 14.8 points and 10.7 rebounds and has 19 double-doubles this season, giving the Gaels a two-pronged offensive attack with Dellavedova — who could become a household name by the time this tournament is through.
No. 8 seed: Memphis: Few teams this talented have flown under the radar in the way that Memphis has this season. Perhaps part of that has to do with the Tigers playing in Conference USA, but they shouldn't be ignored much longer. Memphis has gone 20-3 since Dec. 22, losing its three games by a combined six points. The Tigers blew through the Conference USA tournament and have won their last seven games by an average margin of 22.4 points. Tigers guard Will Barton is the conference player of the year and needs just six points to surpass Elliot Perry for the most points scored by a sophomore in Memphis history. Being a No. 8 seed means Memphis likely would draw No. 1 Michigan State in the round of 32, but the Spartans are the weakest top seed in the tournament. If Memphis can advance past the first weekend, anything is possible.
No. 8 seed: Creighton: If there is one key, above all others, that separates contenders from pretenders in a one-and-done scenario, it's the ability to make shots. No team shoots a better percentage from the field than the Blue Jays (50.9 percent), and that means they should be close in any game they play against a superior opponent. It certainly doesn't hurt that Creighton has Doug McDermott, the third-leading scorer in the nation at 23.2 points per game. The 6-foot-7 sophomore, whose dad is the coach, is versatile enough to score inside or from behind the 3-point arc. Maybe the Blue Jays lost some steam in the eyes of pundits because they didn't win the Missouri Valley Conference regular season title — Wichita State won by two games — but these guys are legit. Creighton beat Iowa, Nebraska and Northwestern out of the Big Ten, as well as Big West champion Long Beach State and split a pair of games with Wichita State.
No. 12 seed: VCU: Hey, if Butler can advance to back-to-back national championship games, why can't VCU return to the Final Four and make a run at a title? The Rams' top five scorers were all members of last year's team, which means they know what it takes to be successful on the big stage of the NCAA tournament. If anything, expectations were higher this season at VCU, and the Rams still managed to squeeze through the Colonial Athletic Association conference tournament. The scoring of senior Bradford Burgess is actually down slightly this season (from 14.3 to 13.3 points), but that isn't a bad thing because it means others have stepped up to fill the void left by last year's senior class. Juvonte Reddic and Troy Daniels went from role players to the team's second and third leading scorers, respectively. If the Rams win out, coach Shaka Smart will look like a genius, but will he stick around again or leave for a bigger program?
