Aaron Rodgers will be named the NFL's Most Valuable Player on Saturday night, and deservedly so.
If it seems strange during a season in which Drew Brees passed for more yards than any quarterback in the history of the NFL that someone else would win MVP, but a closer look at the statistics explains why Rodgers will -- and should -- win in a landslide.
Yes, Brees flew by Dan Marino's 27-year-old single-season passing yards record, but Rodgers was the far more efficient player. And that's how quarterbacks are best measured: in terms of efficiency.
Rodgers threw only 502 passes all season. Fifteen quarterbacks threw more times than him, including the likes of Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez, Andy Dalton and Josh Freeman, all of whom -- despite their additional attempts – passed for for at least 1,000 fewer yards than Rodgers. That is efficiency.
Brees attempted 155 more passes this season than Rodgers. Any quarterback who gets that many more passing opportunities should throw for more yards than his MVP competition. But when Rodgers did drop back, he racked up more yards per pass attempt by a wide margin, gaining an average of 9.25 yards. Brees, meanwhile, was at 8.34 yards per attempt, which was only sixth-best among quarterbacks this season. That is an example of just how efficient Rodgers was.
At Rodgers' 9.25 yards-per-attempt clip, he would have passed for 6,077 yards this season had he thrown as frequently as Brees. Those 6,077 yards would have eclipsed Brees' season total by more than 500 yards.
Rodgers also rarely turned the ball over. His six interceptions meant that he threw an interception on just 1.1 percent of his pass attempts. Brees, by comparison, threw 14 interceptions, which was 2.1 percent of his passes. In this area, Brees was very good. But Rodgers was great and extremely efficient.
Rodgers threw 45 touchdown passes, while Brees had only one more despite his 155 additional pass attempts. In total, Rodgers actually surpassed Brees in total touchdowns produced due to his 3-to-1 advantage in rushing touchdowns scored.
Measuring exclusively what each quarterback did in the passing game, this left Rodgers with a 7.5 touchdown-to-interception ratio, while Brees finished at 3.29. Rodgers was simply too efficient this season to lose out on the MVP award to any player.
And if it's wins that matter most in MVP voting, no other player can compete with Rodgers in that category, either. The Packers had a league-best 15 to the Saints' 13.
Oh, wait. What about Tom Brady? Yes, he was great again this season and will likely place third in the overall voting. He has been better in the postseason than Rodgers by leading his team to the Super Bowl, but the votes were taken before the playoffs, and this is a regular-season award. And the regular season, well, it belonged to Rodgers.
Although there can be plenty of deserved criticism levied at Rodgers for failing to even reach the NFC Championship game, it was his superbly efficient play during the regular season that will win him the award.
All that's left to do now is for Rodgers to make the final audibles to his MVP acceptance speech.
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