National Football League

DraftKings NFL Picks: Top Stacks for Week 4

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

share

facebookxredditlink

foxsports

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports DraftKings NFL Picks

DraftKings NFL Picks: Top Stacks is an article that outlines the top offenses to stack for the week. A stack is pairing a quarterback with other players on his team, usually wide receivers. Almost every tournament-winning lineup for daily fantasy football has some sort of stack, so doing it well can lead to some big paydays!

At this point in daily fantasy football, everybody knows about stacking. Most players will feature a QB/WR stack in just about every GPP lineup they make, almost without second thought. They aren’t wrong; stacking a quarterback and one of his receivers reduces the number of variables that have to happen in order to have success, and it creates massive upside. Every week in DFS, there’s a group of stacks that every semi-knowledgeable player will “be on” for that week, leading to high ownership.

As in every sport in DFS, there’s a reason that highly owned players are highly owned. However, the way a lot of daily fantasy players approach stacking isn’t necessarily optimal. They might look through the defenses for that slate, pick one of the worst pass defenses, and stack the opposing quarterback with his top receiver. Maybe they’ll look at the corner backs for the opposing defense, match the top corner with the top receiver, second corner with the WR2, and determine match ups that way.

Both of these methods will hit very well at times, but it creates an edge that a successful GPP player can exploit. In this article you’ll see how a consistently profitable DFS player approaches stacking. Let’s dive into some stacks for the week!

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

DraftKings NFL Picks: Oakland Raiders

As Oakland’s young studs like Derek Carr ($6,700) and Amari Cooper ($7,600) gain more experience, the more the Raiders lean on them in their offense. In the offseason, Jack Del Rio made it a point that they were going to make an effort to give Latavius Murray the ball more. However, this has proven to be untrue, as they currently rank number 11 in the league in passing attempts per game, and Murray has been in the game on just 46% of the team’s snaps.

Baltimore has an elite run defense led by Timmy Jernigan, CJ Mosley and Brandon Williams. I don’t imagine that the Raiders’ running backs will find much success in this matchup, so the already-pass heavy Raiders might air it out even more than usual. Vegas currently has the Ravens as 2.5 point favorites, so the game should at least stay close enough for the Raiders to keep throwing, and there’s also the chance they’re playing catch-up and abandon the run almost completely.

Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

The Ravens pass defense has decent numbers so far, but that’s largely due to getting matchups against the Bills (with Sammy Watkins not 100%) and the Browns to start the season. Corey Coleman and Allen Robinson have both exploded for multiple-touchdown days against the Ravens. On the outside corners, the Ravens start Jimmy Smith and Shareece Wright. They don’t shadow at all, so Smith spends all of his time covering the opposing left wideout and Wright is on the right.

If this was still 2014, I wouldn’t go anywhere near a receiver slated to line up against Jimmy Smith. However, this is 2016, and he hasn’t come anywhere close his form from two years ago since then. Amari Cooper will be matched up with Smith for the majority of his snaps, considering that he lines up on the left side on 52% of the time compared to just 26% on the right and 22% in the slot. Cooper has yet to score a touchdown this year, but he has had many opportunities that have either been called off or just missed by Carr. He remains the big-play and red zone specialist in Oakland, and regression is sure to come.

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

However, despite the great corner back match up against Smith, this is not a defense that will give up a lot of big plays. Eric Weddle and Lardarius Webb are above-average safeties and should minimize the chances for Cooper to get behind the defense. With that being said, Cooper is still a freak athlete and is more than capable of having a breakout game against any defense, making him the perfect target for GPPs. Combine that with the relatively low ownership that he’ll see due to recency bias, and there is massive upside with Cooper.

On the other side of the field, Michael Crabtree gets an even more favorable matchup against Shareece Wright. Wright is one of the worst starting corners in the league, and a veteran like Crabtree will be able to take advantage of him with ease. There were a lot of analysts predicting that Crabtree would start to decline this season and that Cooper would take over as the clear WR1 (i.e. Vincent Jackson/Mike Evans in Tampa), but that simply hasn’t been the case so far. Cooper does lead the team with 29 targets, but Crabtree has 25 targets thus far, and 19 catches compared to Cooper’s 15. Crabtree also comes at a sizable discount on DraftKings, despite the similar opportunity between the two.

Crabtree serves as more of a possession receiver while Cooper’s more of the home run guy, so Crabtree’s production is generally very safe. The match up with Baltimore very much favors the possession receiver for several reasons. First is the reason why I have a bit of concern about Cooper this week; Eric Weddle and Lardarius Webb do a great job limiting big plays. Cooper will be open less often downfield, so Carr will likely turn to Crabtree in those situations. Also, Baltimore brings a very formidable pass rush led by Terrell Suggs coming off the edge. The Raiders do have one of the top offensive lines in the league so I don’t imagine it being a huge issue, but Carr could be facing enough pressure that Cooper doesn’t have time to get open downfield, leaving Carr to go to Crabtree on a shorter route.

If I had to choose between the two I’d most likely stack Carr with Crabtree, however, the double stack with Cooper and Crabtree is definitely in play this week. Ownership should be relatively low due to the perceived bad matchup with the Ravens and games like NO/SD and CAR/ATL that figure to very popular targets in DFS. Be sure to have some sort of exposure to the Raiders passing game in your DraftKings picks this week.

Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports

DraftKings NFL Picks: San Diego Chargers

According to Vegas, the Chargers/Saints game is projected to be the highest scoring game on the slate with an over/under of 53.5 as of writing this article. This will easily be the most popular game to target for DFS, and getting the right read on this game could be the key to taking down GPPs this week.

The Chargers’ passing game has taken a huge hit from injuries, already losing Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead for the year to go along with Antonio Gates battling injury. This hasn’t decreased their willingness to throw the ball, though, as they’re still one of the more pass happy offenses in the league. Melvin Gordon (6,300) has become the bell cow running back, Hunter Henry ($2,700) has filled in for Gates, and Travis Benjamin ($5,900) and Tyrell Williams ($4,400) are the two lead receivers now. All of those players have looked impressive so far, so the Chargers offense looks like it’ll be in good hands.

We know Philip Rivers ($6,900) will be at the center of everything that happens with the Chargers’ offense. At that price, he’s one of the top plays on the board and is a lock for our stack. The real question is who to pair with him. Rivers has spread out his targets relatively evenly so far, so we’ll need to dig into individual matchups and exactly where the opportunities are coming for each receiver to determine who we should play.

Let’s start with Travis Benjamin, the former Cleveland Brown who always seems to find himself as a WR1 no matter where he goes. Benjamin leads the Chargers in targets this year with 21, as well as yards (229), catches (17), and touchdowns (2). San Diego moves Benjamin all over the field, as he’s spent 37% of his snaps on the right, 36% in the slot, and 22% on the left. It looks like Ken Crawley will be shadowing Benjamin, which is a very exploitable match up. I’ll be playing Benjamin in every Chargers stack I make this week.

Next is the receiver who lines up opposite Benjamin, Tyrell “The Gazelle” Williams. At 6’4″ and 205 lbs., Williams has the physical tools to absolutely dominate a game. He already provided us with this beauty during Week 1:

Williams comes at a nice discount ($4,400), and will be shadowed by Sterling Moore, who’s just 5’10”. The physical advantage that Williams has in this matchup shouldn’t be ignored, and I believe he’ll dominate the red zone looks, giving him a lot of upside. He’s second on the team in targets with 20, so he should get plenty of opportunity here. He’s the second Chargers’ pass catcher I like in San Diego stacks.

With Antonio Gates, out, Arkansas product Hunter Henry was called on to play big snaps, and he came through last week with 6 catches on 7 targets. Henry is a 6’6″ athletic tight end who runs a full route tree in the Chargers’ offense, and at just $2,700 on DraftKings, he is almost a lock to hit value against a team as bad as the Saints. However, I’ll be leaving Henry out of my San Diego stacks this week.

Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports

This is because I want to play Saints’ tight end Coby Fleener ($3,200) in all my Chargers stacks. If San Diego is going to keep passing through 4 quarters, the Saints will need to be scoring too. Looking at where the Saints will likely look to have success against the Chargers, I believe Fleener is in line for the most work.

Many NFL fans don’t realize it, but the Chargers might have the best cornerback group in the league. Jason Verrett, Casey Heyward, and Brandon Flowers are all elite players, and opposing wide receivers really have to work to get open in this matchup. If the wideouts aren’t getting open, Drew Brees will have to look somewhere, and Fleener seems like the obvious choice.

Last week against the Falcons, Fleener turned around what had been a relatively disappointing fantasy season with a 7 catch, 109 yard, 1 touchdown game. Afterwards, Brees said that he and Fleener are starting to build some chemistry. The targets have been there for Fleener, so we can start expecting some real fantasy production now.

The matchup vs. San Diego is very appealing for tight ends as well. The Saints’ linebackers are all very slow, and Fleener is a pretty athletic tight end. He compares more to Jimmy Graham than Ben Watson, and we all saw what Brees and Graham did to opposing defenses in their time together with the Saints. If you’re building a Chargers’ stack, be sure to include Fleener as a correlation play that has high upside in this matchup.

Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

DraftKings NFL Picks: Other Stacks

Carolina Panthers: Last week’s match up against the Vikings was far from ideal, so look for the defending NFC champs to bounce back this week vs. the Falcons. The Falcons corners, Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford, are both pretty good, so opposing quarterbacks often look to their tight ends more against Atlanta, where they aren’t great. Last week Coby Fleener managed 7 catches for 109 yards and a score, so stack Greg Olsen ($6,000) with Cam Newton ($7,800). 

Detroit Lions: The Bears’ defense is really banged up, and this is a Lions team that is one of the most pass-happy in the league. The best receiver to pair with Matthew Stafford ($7,300) in this game is Marvin Jones Jr. ($7,300). Jones has essentially taken the Calvin Johnson role of running deep routes and being a red zone specialist, and the fantasy upside is amazing. He has 29 targets on the year, and with Kyle Fuller on the Bears’ IR and Tracy Porter not at 100%, no one for the Bears can cover him. Eric Ebron ($3,800), Golden Tate ($5,600) and Theo Riddick ($5,200) are all in play to stack with Stafford and Jones as well.

The Rest: Arizona Cardinals (Palmer/Fitzgerald/Floyd), Baltimore Ravens (Flacco/Smith/Pitta), Denver Broncos (Semien/Thomas/Sanders) 

More from Fantasy CPR

This article originally appeared on

share

Get more from National Football League Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more

in this topic

National Football League