Major League Baseball

DraftKings MLB Picks For September 30

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Sep 12, 2015; Dallas, TX, USA; A general view of the DraftKings sign board during the match with FC Dallas playing against New York City FC at Toyota Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

DraftKings MLB Picks For September 30

We have a full slate on DraftKings for the last Friday of the regular season, and aces are wild! Five pitchers top $10,000. We have six more than are above $7,500. Is there value in the middle tier, or should we pay for two top pitchers on DraftKings? Let’s take a look at the past stats for some help!

NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.

Want to be a millionaire? For you first time players, if you would like an entry into the NFL Millionaire contest, use this link for the referral bonus!

Sep 18, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Daniel Norris (44) against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field. The Tigers won 9-5. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

The Cubs have scratched Jason Hammel from tonight’s start and have no yet named a replacement. At any rate, it will likely be another “bullpen start”, meaning that whoever gets the call wont be worth using in DraftKings anyway.

Daniel Norris has never faced the Braves. The current roster is 2-6 against him though, but have not brought in a run. At any rate, his strikeout potential makes him an interesting option at an affordable $7,800. He would slide nicely into your second pitcher slot in your DraftKings lineup.

His opponent, Matt Wisler, has never faced the Tigers either. After to really good starts upon his return to the majors in late August, the wheels have fallen off for Wisler again. He has a 5.63 ERA in three September starts.

Ryan Merritt will be making his first start since September 2nd at AAA Columbus. Merritt has a 1.50 ERA and two strikeouts over six inning in three relief appearances this year. He has little upside considering he doesn’t get many strikeouts and wont go many innings.

Brent Suter has been superb out of the bullpen for the Brewers. However, in his only start of the season, he was destroyed by the Mariners back in August. This start comes at Coors Field. No thanks.

Sep 25, 2016; New York City, NY, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Robert Gsellman (65) pitches during the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports

Best Bets:

Yu Darvish ($12,700): The Rays are a miserable 7-46(.152) against Darvish with only one run scored and 13 strikeouts. This is the kind of domination you want if you are going to pay top dollar for a pitcher. Of course, the problem is that Darvish has a 5.16 ERA in four September starts. He has given up five runs or more twice in those four starts. There is more risk involved than usual when you have an ace at this price, but when Darvish is on, he is one of the best. He gave up just two hits in seven shutout innings in his last start against the A’s.

Honorable Mention:

Taijuan Walker ($8,900): A quick glance at the stats would make you wonder why Walker is on here. The A’s are hitting .274 against him in 73 at bats with two homers and seven RBI. However, when we dissect the numbers, they look much better. Injured outfielders Sam Fuld and Mark Canha account for seven hits in 11 at bats with a homer and four RBI. So now the A’s are only 13-60(.216) with a homer and three RBI with 11 strikeouts. Those are good numbers. And Walker seems to be getting on track. He has allowed three runs on less in each of his last four starts.

Dark Horses:

Robert Gsellman ($6,600): Gsellman has already faced the Phillies twice in his young career with great results. They are 10-43(.233) off of him with just one run scored and an impressive 12 strikeouts. Expect another strong outing from Gsellman as the Mets try to hang on to a wild card spot.

Tyler Duffey ($5,300): The White Sox are only 6-32(.188) against Duffey with seven strikeouts. They have scored four runs, but if he is putting up numbers like that at a bargain price, will you really complain? The risk here is that every other team has tattooed Duffey. He has a 6.18 ERA on the season, and a 5.24 career ERA. The Sox could figure him out tonight, or he could continue to hold them at bay. It really could go either way.

Sep 25, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays right fielder Jose Bautista (19) hits a solo home run in the fourth inning against New York Yankees at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports

Don’t forget to check out the DFS Lineup Optimizer over at FantasyPros. You can also pick your favorite players or favorite stack, and it will optimize the lineup around that! It really is an invaluable tool for you DFS players!

Enrique Hernandez ($2,800) has torched Madison Bumgarner in his career. Kike is 11-22 with four doubles, three homers, and five RBI. Josh Reddick ($3,000) has managed a 2-3 mark with a walk, a homer, and three RBI against Bumgarner. Justin Turner ($3,200) is 11-44 with three walks, two doubles, two homers, and five RBI. If he is in the lineup, Charlie Culberson ($2,000) is worth a look. Culberson has four hits in 16 at bats with two doubles and four RBI. Yasiel Puig ($3,200) is 8-32 with three walks, a double, and two solo homers against MadBum. Carlos Ruiz ($2,100) has six hits in 17 at bats with two doubles, a homer, and two RBI. Even Rob Segedin ($2,000) has managed a solo homer against Bumgarner in three at bats.

The Blue Jays have bombed Rick Porcello. Darwin Barney ($2,600) is 5-8 with a double and a triple, but he has no counting stats. Jose Bautista ($4,100) is 15-36(.417) with six walks, three homers, and nine RBI against Porcello. Josh Donaldson ($4,700) has eight hits in 31 at bats(.258) with a walk, a double, and a solo homer. Edwin Encarnacion ($4,000) is 13-37(.351) with five doubles, three homers, and ten RBI against Porcello. Justin Smoak ($3,100) is 7-21 with three walks, a double, three homers, and nine RBI.

Starlin Castro ($3,700) is 16-45(.356) with two walks, three doubles, and a RBI against Yovani Gallardo. Jacoby Ellsbury ($3,600) is 6-16with a double, a triple, and three RBI against Gallardo. Chase Headley ($3,200) is 10-26(.385) with five walks, a homer, and three RBI. Brian McCann ($3,500) is 6-24 with six walks, two doubles, a homer, and four RBI against Gallardo. Mark Teixeira ($4,300) has four hits in 13 at bats with three walks, three homers, and five RBI off of Gallardo. Brett Gardner ($4,500) has three hits in 12 at bats with a walk, a triple, and four RBI.

Turnabout is fair play, so you can stack Orioles against Michael Pineda as well. Chris Davis ($3,600) is only 5-20 off of Pineda, but he has a walk, a double, two homers, and five RBI. J.J. Hardy ($2,400) is 9-20 with a walk, three homers, and four RBI. Adam Jones ($3,500) is 10-29(.345) with two doubles, a homer, and five RBI. Manny Machado ($3,900) has six hits in 15 at bats with a walk, a double, and two driven in. Jonathan Schoop ($3,100) is only 2-15, but he has a double, a homer, and four RBI against Pineda.

I do understand why Carlos Rodon looks like a good pick, but he has not had good luck with the Twins, even during his hot streak this year. Brian Dozier ($4,100) is a big reason why. Dozier is 6-16 with a walk, a double, three homers, and six RBI off of Rodon. Kennys Vargas ($3,500) has a walk, a single, a homer, and two RBI in his three at bats. Robbie Grossman ($3,700) is 2-5 with a walk, a homer, and two driven in. Miguel Sano ($3,500) has three walks and a solo homer, but that is his only hit in nine at bats against Rodon. Byron Buxton ($2,400) has three hits in eight at bats with a walk and a double, but has no counting stats against Rodon yet.

The Indians have seen enough of Yordano Ventura that they have hit him hard a few times. Jason Kipnis ($4,900) is 8-28(.286) with a walk, a homer, and four RBI against him. Francisco Lindor ($3,900) is already 4-9 against him, but has no counting stats. Jose Ramirez ($4,900) is 6-15 with two walks, a double, and five RBI. Carlos Santana ($5,000) is only 6-23(.261), but he has five walks, a double, two homers, and four RBI off of Ventura.

Sep 7, 2016; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates right fielder Gregory Polanco (25) hits an RBI single against the St. Louis Cardinals during the first inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Eduardo Nunez ($4,100) is 3-7 with a double, a homer, and two RBI against Rich Hill, but there is a chance that he wont be able to play over the weekend. If he can, he will be in there though. The Giants need him as they are trying to secure a wild card berth.

Mike Zunino ($3,100) hit a two run homer in his two at bats against Raul Alcantara.

Jackie Bradley Jr ($4,400) has three hits in nine at bats with a walk and a solo homer against Marco Estrada. David Ortiz ($5,100) is only 3-19(.158), but he has three walks, two homers, and four RBI against Estrada.

Michael Conforto ($4,100) has one hit in three at bats against Alec Asher. It is a two run homer.

Chris Carter ($4,500) is 1-3 with three walks and a solo homer against Chad Bettis. Andrew Susac ($3,300) has a solo homer in four at bats against Bettis if he plays. Kirk Nieuwenhuis ($3,700) has a single, a walk, and two RBI in three at bats against Bettis.

Randal Grichuk ($4,500) is 1-2 with a solo homer against Tyler Glasnow.

Starling Marte ($5,100) is an impressive 11-22 against Carlos Martinez with a walk, two doubles, and three RBI. Gregory Polanco ($4,600) has been equally impressive at 10-19(.526) with seven walks, three doubles, a triple, and homer, and three RBI. Andrew McCutchen ($3,800) is only 4-27(.148), but he has four walks, a double, a homer, and two RBI against Martinez.

Stephen Vogt ($2,900) is 3-12 with a walk, a homer, and two RBI against Taijuan Walker.

Adrian Beltre ($4,100) is 3-5 with a solo homer against Matt Andriese. Mitch Moreland ($3,000) has a walk and a solo homer in three at bats.

Alex Dickerson ($3,900) is 2-5 with a solo homer against Braden Shipley. Travis Jankowski ($3,600) has two hits in six at bats with a homer and two RBI. Wil Myers ($5,100) has a solo homer and a walk in his two at bats against Shipley.

Yunel Escobar ($3,100) has two walks and a two run double in four at bats against Brad Peacock. Mike Trout ($5,500) is 3-12 with two walks, a double, a triple, and a RBI. Albert Pujols ($3,900) has three hits (all doubles) in ten at bats against Peacock with two RBI.

Adam Eaton ($4,200) is 2-5 with two walks and two RBI against Tyler Duffey.

Addison Russell ($3,500) is 1-3 with a homer and two RBI against Josh Smith. Miguel Montero ($3,400) has two hits in four at bats with a double and two RBI.

Giancarlo Stanton ($4,800) has a solo homer in two at bats against A.J. Cole.

Jayson Werth ($3,700) has six hits in 11 at bats against Andrew Cashner with three walks, a double, and a solo homer. Ryan Zimmerman ($3,500) is 3-14 with a homer and four RBI. At least Cashner dodges Daniel Murphy, who is 5-9 with a homer and four RBI against him.

Evan Gattis ($4,000) and Tony Kemp ($2,900) both own solo homers against Daniel Wright.

Paul Goldschmidt ($5,200) is 5-17(.294) with a walk, a double, a homer, and three RBI against Edwin Jackson. Rickie Weeks ($4,500) is 5-21(.238) with a walk, two doubles, a homer, and two RBI against Jackson.

Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from our experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks and alternative plays if you don’t want to follow the herd. Don’t play FanDuel before checking it out!

Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball and stay tuned for advice on Week 4 in the NFL!

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