Aside from flopping, insufficient steak portions at Chipotle and that white stuff that forms on the side of your lips when you're dehydrated, nothing quite frosts my cookies more than winter (literally and figuratively). It’s too wet to golf, football’s basically kaput, most of the movies in the theaters are pretentious or not good enough to be released in the summer, March Madness is not quite here, at least one of your co-workers’ kids will come down with the flu which somehow gets the entire office sick and there’s approximately three hours of sunshine per week. Oh, and now that adolescence is over, instead of an unexpected off day to do whatever your heart desires, snowfall just equates to a longer commute. Dark days, indeed.
I love basketball, and the arrival of Girl Scout cookies is reason to rejoice, but the forthcoming fruition of baseball is the sole catalyst that keeps my heart warm during this polar purgatory. For the “Hot Stove league” could not be more fitting to describe such a dormant period in which the dissection of deals (both actual and hypothetical) and debates of varying hardball matters keeps the flame in all baseball fanatics eternally burning.
Spring training visuals of green diamonds, clear skies and Dodger Blue have begun to permeate through our televisions, signaling our collective liberation from our national pastime’s hibernation. Simultaneously awakening from this slumber is fantasy baseball, that glorious diversion that allows the masses to personify their hardball philosophies and concepts into actualization. With fantasy drafts commencing, rotisserie players are seeking any available info that will propel their crew into contention. The following collection of principles and presumptions has aided in past personal fantasy endeavors, and should prove advantageous in your pursuit of fantasy glory.
Know Your League Rules
Sounds simple, right? You would be amazed how many owners neglect to peruse their league settings. More than any other sport, baseball has the most wide-ranging rubric in the fantasy forum. Know what statistics count and grasp their credence on the scoring system. For example, in leagues that account for average, Ichiro may be enticing as a mid-to-late round selection. But for leagues that credit on-base percentage? Not so much. Additionally, find out if the format is head-to-head versus rotisserie, as well as daily lineups compared to weekly, as your roster structure may vary depending on league organization.
Don’t be wooed by wins
It’s easy to be seduced by the big “W” as the majority of standard leagues count victories (or net wins) in their scoring system. However, a common misconception by fantasy owners is connecting a high win total to future fantasy success. Granted, to rack up the W, a pitcher needs to possess the sought-after attributes of endurance and perseverance to go deep into games, and one can’t double as a pitching machine to the opposing offense. Yet wins have proven to be more indicative of a team’s run support rather than pitching performance. Case in point: Rick Porcello. The Motown right-hander finished 2011 with a 4.75 ERA, fifth-worst in the American League. This bloated figure did not impede Mr. Porcello from capturing 14 wins on the season, as the Detroit offense averaged 8.8 runs during his starts. His Tiger teammate, Max Scherzer, benefited from similar patronage, notching 15 triumphs despite a 4.43 ERA thanks to 7.89 run support average.
As previously alluded, most fantasy formats factor wins into their scoring systems, making Porcello and other victory leaders in demand. Alas, as leagues also compute ERA and WHIP, any gain would be nullified, if not surpassed, by these ballooned numbers.
First basemen can be found
Often in drafts, a sequence of selections at a position will trigger chaos and disarray amongst owners, fearing they will be left out in the cold at a particular roster spot. This unease often correlates to managers electing a player prematurely and thus not maximizing the value of their pick.
The most common of this occurrence associates with relievers (which we’ll get to in a minute) and first basemen. For the upcoming campaign, as many as five first basemen could be off the board at the conclusion of the first round. According to the FOXSports.com Fantasy Baseball rankings, Mark Teixeira stands in the sixth spot at first base and, in the minds of many, is the last “can’t miss” player at the position. However, while cohorts Joey Votto and Prince Fielder project as late first-rounders, the Bronx basher is envisioned to go in the mid-to-late second round. This won’t stop panicky proprietors from snatching up Teixeira once Votto and Fielder go off the board.
On the surface, this strategy makes sense: after Teixeira, the top 13 is rounded out by geriatrics (36-year-old Paul Konerko and 35-year-old Michael Young), catchers (Mike Napoli and Carlos Santana) and relative unproven entities (Eric Hosmer, Michael Morse, Freddie Freeman). Nevertheless, don’t fall into this fallacy, as the talent pool of viable cornermen is deeper than assumed. To illustrate this opinion, let’s compare Teixeira’s 2011 output to players ranked behind him:
Who’s on First?
| Player | Pos. Rank | Games | R | HR | RBI | BA | OBP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Teixeira | 6 | 156 | 90 | 39 | 111 | .248 | .341 |
| Michael Morse | 12 | 146 | 73 | 31 | 95 | .303 | .360 |
| Lance Berkman | 14 | 145 | 90 | 31 | 94 | .301 | .412 |
| Mark Trumbo | 18 | 149 | 65 | 29 | 87 | .254 | .291 |
| Adam Lind | 20 | 125 | 56 | 26 | 87 | .251 | .295 |
His homers and RBI may outrank the others’ harvest (although that’s an upshot of more games played than the rest of the group), but Teixeira’s average and OBP are disconcerting for a player of his rank and position. Morse and Berkman unquestionably stack up admirably considering their standing, and ribbies are such fickle stats that the category can be justifiably disregarded. Also emerging from this table is Lind. His average and OBP are pedestrian, and last season’s back issues certainly could cause owners apprehension. Still, slugging 26 bombs in just 125 games is hard to ignore, and Lind logged 150 or more games in the previous two seasons, alleviating concerns of his durability. Trumbo is the only one listed that I harbor hesitation with, as Albert Pujols’ entrance throws Trumbo into a congested DH role with Bobby Abreu and Kendrys Morales.
Anyway, the belief in early procurement of a first baseman is fictitious. If you’re unable to attain Pujols, Cabrera, Adrian Gonzalez or Votto, don’t reach for a player earlier than expected, as alternatives can be obtained. Speaking of which…
How to deal with closers
If you thought owners lose their minds in the midst of first baseman runs, that’s nothing compared to the Walking Dead-like chaos that ensues when closers start going off the board.
In this past, this worry was rational: on average, just 15 relievers recorded 30 or more saves from 2008 to 2010. Yet the club’s exclusivity was refuted last season, with 19 firemen reaching this plateau. The amount of extra arms hitting this objective may seem insignificant, but bearing in mind most players compete in 12-team-or-less fantasy formats, this connotation can’t be written off.
Similar to first basemen, a delusion on closers states a significant drop-off after the top tier of hurlers. Like Joe Maddon’s hair color, this belief couldn’t be more bogus. (C’mon Joe, everyone loved that slicked-back silver. Along with the black-rimmed glasses, it emitted a sense of college-professor astuteness that was a refreshing scene in baseball dugouts. Instead, you’re treating us to that auburn-colored monstrosity that looks like a dead possum sitting on your dome. Do the right thing and go natural, my friend.) Out of the top 10 save leaders from 2011, only Mariano Rivera and Heath Bell were preseason top-10 relievers, and six members of this list were ranked 16th or lower, including Drew Storen (ranked 20th), Brandon League (28th) and Joel Hanrahan (31st). Furthermore, at some juncture in the season, three of the projected top-10 closers (Francisco Rodriguez, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Broxton) lost their gig due to injury or performance issues last season.
In short: don’t get bullied into grasping for a stopper sooner than expected. As League, Hanrahan and NL saves leader Craig Kimbrel proved, solid relievers are bountiful in the later rounds.
Shoot for balance over emphasis
One sure-fire strategy for failure is a total disregard for a particular stat to focus on accumulating other scoring categories. Conventionally, this practice manifests itself in owners overlooking steals to concentrate on homers, RBI and runs, or snubbing saves in favor of strikeouts and wins. The glitch in this blueprint is its requirement of domination in the remaining categories, an endeavor easier planned than executed. This proposal additionally leaves little room for depth when injuries inevitably surface.
Like most undertakings in life, putting all eggs into one basket begets an obscene amount of risk. Attempt to cover all your bases (pun intended) in favor of rebuffing a certain area.
Be aware of a change in scenery
Specifically, the effect a ballpark will have on production. When applying this theory to offseason activities, the first two names that arise are Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder. With the Great Pujols, owners should hold little trepidation of regression, as the three-time MVP has averaged 40 homers, 121 RBI, 117 runs and a line of .328/.420/.617 since arriving in the Show in 2001, and his home-and-away splits are mirror images of each other. But with Fielder? Aw, our sweet, sweet Prince…
Fielder’s feats of 38 jacks, 120 ribbies and a .299/.415/.566 from last season were impressive, but closer audit reveals an Achilles’ heel: the road. Away from Miller Park, Fielder smacked just 14 long balls. For all you math scholars out there, that equates to 63.2 percent of his homer accrual coming at home. The rest of his hitting harvest tells a similar tale, owning a .272 BA and .393 OBP on the road compared to averages of .326/.437 in the Brew City. The away figures are respectable, just not as robust as his standard stats suggest.
C.J. Wilson is the most notable pitcher with a new address in 2012. Currently slotted No. 20 at his position, Wilson departed Rangers Ballpark (a field infamous for its’ affability to hitters) for the greener pastures of Angel Stadium (which ranked second-last in runs surrendered in the American League in 2011). Wilson’s stats substantiate this claim, owning a 3.69 ERA in 16 home starts compared to a 2.31 mark in 18 games on the road. Working in a more conducive environment in 2012, Wilson provides good value at his positional rank.
While given the aid of additional battery (Cincinnati ranked second in runs in the Senior Circuit last season, a major upgrade of San Diego’s standing of 15th in the league), many baseball pundits have Latos pegged for regression, due to the fact that the former Padre pitcher is leaving the friendly confines of PETCO Park in favor of the launching pad known as Great American Ball Park. In reality, Latos’ home-and-away stats aren’t drastic enough to downgrade his value. Still, keep an eye on the possible psychological side effects the park may play on Latos’ game.
Grab SS and C while you can
Remember the closer-run phenomena above? For shortstops and catchers, this panic is warranted. Behind the plate, there’s Napoli, Santana, Brian McCann, Buster Posey…and that’s about it. I have a personal affinity for Joe Mauer, but his susceptibility to injury (just 78 games last season) and recent power outage (28 homers in ’09, nine long balls in ’10 and just three bombs last season) prohibit him from sure-thing status. Baltimore’s Matt Wieters was solid in 2011 with 22 home runs, yet his .328 OBP leaves much to be desired. Even Posey could be posed as somewhat of a question mark thanks to missing most of last year with a leg injury. The conundrum with catchers, other than the lack of offensive output, is that the position demands for regular rest, leading to multiple occasions in fantasy where a catcher is starting on an off night. The durability of McCann and the other upper echelon catchers is mainly what makes them valuable. So when Santana and Napoli start coming off the board, might be time to get trigger-happy.
Same goes for shortstops. In the preseason prediction piece, one of my cases for taking Troy Tulowitzki with the first overall pick was the lack of depth at the position. To reiterate: after Tulo, owners can choose from an injury-prone Jose Reyes, a likely headcase in Hanley Ramirez, a not-quite-there Elvis Andrus, a possible one-year wonder in Asdrubal Cabrera or worn-down Derek Jeter and Jimmy Rollins. And those are some of the better players available. After they are off the board, it’s slim pickings.
Don’t be caught napping at these positions, as the disparity between the elite and ordinary can make or break an owner’s title hopes.
These times, they are a changing
Not sure if you’re aware of this, but baseball has been dealing with a steroid problem for the past decade or so. Shocking, right? Skeptics maintain this issue hasn’t been put to bed, and Ryan Braun’s adventurous offseason surely fanned these flames. However, the numbers seem to reflect that the game is beginning to cleanse itself. Here is a breakdown of league average of team offensive output for the past six seasons:
Power Outage
| Year | R | HR | SB | BA | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 694 | 152 | 109 | .255 | .321 | .399 |
| 2010 | 710 | 154 | 99 | .257 | .325 | .403 |
| 2009 | 747 | 168 | 99 | .262 | .333 | .418 |
| 2008 | 753 | 163 | 93 | .264 | .333 | .416 |
| 2007 | 777 | 165 | 97 | .268 | .336 | .423 |
| 2006 | 787 | 180 | 92 | .269 | .337 | .432 |
Reexamine stolen bases and home runs. Swipes have been trending upwards the past six years, with homers going the opposite direction. Why is this relevant? Owners tend to believe muscle can be found anywhere, while speed is sparser than meat on a Chipotle burrito. (That’s right, two shots at the tortilla franchise. I’m sick of getting low-balled on steak, and I’m taking this fight to the streets! Worse, according to my Twitter followers, I’m not the only one getting shafted, as this poor distribution is an epidemic. Our voice will be heard!) In truth, players that pack a powerful punch are becoming endangered, whereas those with wheels are no longer a vanishing breed. Keep this sentiment in mind before reaching to obtain a speedster in order to meet an imaged requisite of steals.
Sleepers are sleepers for a reason
This is what I wrote on the sleeper subject for our fantasy football draft guide:
“Small rant: I have always been amused at the notion of “sleepers,” as the process of listing someone who may experience unexpected success is an oxymoron.
“Anyway, many people confuse “sleepers” for “sure-things.” To clarify, a player is bestowed sleeper-designation thanks to the lack of communal belief in their abilities to consistently contribute to a fantasy squad. Yet numerous owners will begin to stockpile sleepers after their perceived starting lineup is set in drafts. This is a formula for disaster, as your bench will be a key factor in the outcome of your season.
“If you want to take a flyer on a few sleepers, have at it. But wait until your last picks before you proceed in this venture, that way your losses are minimal if the sleeper doesn’t bare fruitful results.”
The outlook applies to fantasy baseball as well, for the list of possible prospects that may make an impact as the summer drags on is extensive. For me, at least in terms of baseball, a “sleeper” isn’t a highly-touted youngin’ marching his way through the minors (think Bryce Harper); rather, it’s a player we’re well-accustomed with who has recently fallen on hard times (think Adam Dunn). Put it this way: Harper looks to start the season in the minors, meaning an early-June call-up as a best-case scenario. Even though he’s a prodigy, more likely than not, his rookie season will be a roller coaster. Meanwhile Dunn, who is going undrafted in some mocks, averaged 40 homers and a .381 OBP in his previous seven seasons before 2011’s abomination. Considering he still has potential for 25-30 dingers and will be playing an entire season, who would you rather take the flyer on?
While we are on the subject of prospects…
Beware of rookies
If you want to take a chance on Matt Moore or Jesus Montero, go for it. Just don’t overload on neophytes, as few provide steady assistance. For every Eric Hosmer, there are a dozen Brent Morels.
And finally…
Have fun
It’s just a game, after all. Even if your team is mirrored in a season-wide slump, marred by subpar outings from the starting rotation, remember there are greater tragedies in life.
Like winter.
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