Start ‘Em
Ricky Nolasco (at Washington, at Atlanta)
Don’t let his recent shellacking at the hands of the Padres deter your fervor towards Nolasco. Until he was rocked for nine runs in 1.1 innings against San Diego on July 20, Nolasco was sporting a 0.56 ERA in his last four outings (32 innings). The Braves and Nationals aren’t the most frightening of lineups in the National League, and Nolasco possesses a better road ERA (3.96) compared to his figure at home (4.17).
Guillermo Moscoso (vs. Tampa Bay, vs. Minnesota)
Moscoso had given up just one run in his last four starts (24.2 innings) until the Tigers knocked him up for seven runs (six earned) on July 19. Pitching twice in O.co Coliseum this week should alleviate any remaining worries for Moscoso, as he owns a 1.99 ERA at home this season. His .209 BABIP suggests Moscoso might be the benefactor of luck this season, but with the average offenses of Tampa Bay and Minnesota coming to town, Moscoso is a safe bet.
Freddy Garcia (vs. Seattle, vs. Baltimore)
Aside from a rough outing in Toronto, Garcia has been marvelous the past six weeks, surrendering just 12 runs in his last seven starts (2.38 ERA). With the Yankee right-hander facing the league’s worst offense in Seattle and a middling Baltimore lineup this week, Garcia is a no-brainer.
Other Start ‘Ems
Johnny Cueto (vs. New York, vs. San Francisco)
R.A. Dickey (at Cincinnati, at Washington)
Tommy Hanson (vs. Pittsburgh, vs. Florida)
Dan Haren (at Cleveland, at Detroit)
Jeremy Hellickson (at Oakland, at Seattle)
Tim Hudson (vs. Pittsburgh, vs. Florida)
Jeff Karstens (at Atlanta, at Philadelphia)
Cliff Lee (vs. San Diego, vs. Pittsburgh)
Jon Lester (vs. Kansas City, at Chicago)
Dustin Moseley (vs. Arizona, vs. Colorado)
Joe Saunders (at San Diego, at Los Angeles)
Justin Verlander (at Chicago, vs. Los Angeles)
Jered Weaver (at Cleveland, at Detroit)
C.J. Wilson (vs. Minnesota, at Toronto)
Vance Worley (vs. San Francisco, vs. Pittsburgh)
Sit ‘Em
James McDonald (at Atlanta, at Philadelphia)
McDonald has quietly been one of the more dependable performers on the mound this season, holding opponents to three runs or less in 14 of his past 15 starts and owning a 2.82 ERA in 63.1 innings since May 31. However, the disparity between McDonald’s home and away ERA is disconcerting, with a 2.83 mark at PNC Park but a bloated 5.79 figure on the road. Additionally, Atlanta and Philadelphia are two of the better teams in the Senior Circuit, and McDonald’s 4.50 BB/9 ratio is nothing to dismiss. McDonald’s juice is not worth the squeeze this week.
Brandon McCarthy (vs. Tampa Bay, vs. Minnesota)
A dazzling home ERA (2.33 ERA) and facing adversaries with run-of-the-mill lineups in Tampa Bay and Minnesota, McCarthy would seem to be set for success this week. However, McCarthy has been shaky in July with a 4.70 ERA in four starts and owns a 21.9 line drive percentage this season. Add in the fact that the Twins have already seen McCarthy twice this season and the right-hander could be slated for trouble this week.
Kyle McClellan (vs. Houston, vs. Chicago)
The Astros and Cubs certainly aren’t scaring opposing pitchers in 2011, but McClellan has been battered in his last four starts, owning a 6.38 ERA in that time span. McClellan hasn’t exactly been lights-out at home either, with a 1.31 WHIP and 4.31 ERA at Busch Stadium. McClellan’s value is slightly higher thanks to RP eligibility, but don’t start him in a normal starting pitcher role.
Other Sit ‘Ems
Mike Leake (vs. New York, vs. San Francisco)
Jake Arrieta (at Toronto, at New York)
Fausto Carmona (vs. Los Angeles, vs. Kansas City)
Kyle Davies (at Boston, at Cleveland)
J.A. Happ (at St. Louis, at Milwaukee)
Brett Myers (at St. Louis, at Milwaukee)
Chris Narveson (vs. Chicago, vs. Houston)
Carl Pavano (at Texas, at Oakland)
Jason Vargas (at New York, vs. Tampa Bay)
Jake Westbrook (vs. Houston, vs. Chicago)
Use Caution
Derek Holland (vs. Minnesota, at Toronto)
Toronto has one of the better offenses in baseball, ranking fourth with 485 runs this season. On the other end of that spectrum is Minnesota with nearly 100 runs less thanks to the absences of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Why is this relevant? Because Derek Holland’s starts have routinely been polar opposites of his previous outing. His last four performances illustrate this sentiment, starting with a July 2 showing against Florida, where the Texas left-hander was torched for five runs in 0.2 innings. Holland bounced back with two-straight shutouts against Oakland and Seattle, only to succumb to the Angels by yielding seven runs in 5.1 innings of work. Holland is baseball’s version of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. Use him at your own discretion.
Tim Lincecum (at Philadelphia, at Cincinnati)
After getting hammered by Cincinnati for seven runs on June 11, Lincecum has held opposing batters at bay with a 1.84 ERA in his past seven starts. Lincecum has posted a 2.44 ERA on the road this season, and isn’t one to surrender the long ball (0.53 HR/9 ratio). However, the Reds and Phillies are two of the more proficient offenses in the National League, and Great American and Citizens Bank are infamous as unfavorable venues to pitchers. Lincecum is one of the game’s best arms, but might not facilitate the most fantasy-friendly stats this week.
Jordan Zimmermann (vs. Florida, vs. New York)
A 1.08 WHIP and 3.00 ERA make Zimmermann an attractive play against divisional foes Florida and New York. Yet a closer examination reveals that a phenomenal June (0.85 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and .216 BAA) has concealed a rather pedestrian year for Zimmermann, posting a 4.55 ERA in April and 3.23 figure in May. July hasn’t been kind to Zimmermann, with a 5.19 ERA on the month (albeit with a solid 1.15 WHIP). Zimmermann’s low WHIP and line drive percentage (17.8) signal the right-hander could be in line for a turnaround, but don’t put all your eggs into Zimmermann’s basket.
Other Cautionary Starters
Duane Below (at Chicago, vs. Los Angeles)
Nick Blackburn (at Texas, at Oakland)
Rubby De La Rosa (vs. Colorado, vs. Arizona)
Ryan Dempster (at Milwaukee, at St. Louis)
Aaron Harang (at Philadelphia, vs. Colorado)
Andrew Miller (vs. Kansas City, at Chicago)
Brandon Morrow (vs. Baltimore, vs. Texas)
Juan Nicasio (at Los Angeles, at San Diego)
Jonathon Niese (at Cincinnati, at Washington)
