DAVIE, Fla. — Is the Fish tank half full or half empty?
You could say it’s half full because the Miami Dolphins are 4-4 at the season’s midpoint when many thought they would struggle to win that many games the entire year. You could say it’s half empty because the Dolphins, who have blown second-half leads in losing three games by three points, could have a much better record than that.
“Some very good film on tape, some OK film on tape, some not so good film on tape,’’ Dolphins first-year coach Joe Philbin said of what his team has put up so far. “And that’s why we’re 4-4. There’s been improvement and I suspect that there will be more. However, we’re a 4-4 football team.’’
To Philbin, who won a Super Bowl as Green Bay’s offensive coordinator in 2010 and saw his Packers go 15-1 last season, that’s not too great. But there’s reason for optimism in the second half of the season.
The Dolphins have a manageable schedule, with five of their remaining eight games at home. Four games left are against teams that now have losing records (Tennessee at home, Buffalo home and away and Jacksonville at home) and one is at home against a not-exactly-powerhouse Seattle outfit that is 5-4.
Of the three tough games left, there’s a date at San Francisco and a home-and-away series with New England. Having two games left with the Patriots, who lead the AFC East with a 5-3 mark, at least enables Miami to control its playoff destiny.
But if the Dolphins are to end up in the postseason for the first time since 2008 and just the second time since the start of the 2002 campaign, there are areas that must improve. One is their inconsistent running game and another is in pass defense.
Here’s a look at what the Dolphins have done in the first half of the season and what they seek to do in the second half:
The biggest story in the first half has been the emergence of rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill, the No. 8 pick in the draft.
Several Miami players had said in recent weeks that Tannehill is better than Andrew Luck, taken with the No. 1 pick by Indianapolis. Obviously, that’s not the case, especially after Luck riddled the Dolphins last Sunday for an NFL rookie-record 433 passing yards.
Still, it’s nice to see the confidence the Dolphins have in their new leader, who has completed 142 of 241 passes (58.9 percent) for 1,762 yards with five touchdowns and six interceptions. Tannehill is no doubt ahead of schedule, and the future looks bright for the Dolphins behind center.
At the start of the season, it appeared Tannehill might have trouble finding guys who could catch the ball. But the Dolphins, with Brian Hartline (41 catches for 662 yards) having emerged and Davone Bess (38 grabs for 483 yards) also a threat to have a 1,000-yard season, have stepped up in that area.
Yet the running game has stepped back of late. Reggie Bush, after gaining 241 yards in the first two games, managed just 293 in the next six. He’s gained just 165 in the past four.
“It’s been inconsistent,’’ Philbin said of his team’s running attack. “At times, it’s very, very productive. At other times, not.’’
Bush, who ran for more than 500 yards in his final four games of 2011, needs to return to his form of late last year and early this season. After getting an average of just 12 carries the past three games, he needs to show he again can be the man and the Dolphins don’t need to give as much work as they have lately to backup Daniel Thomas.
There aren’t a lot of problems up front. Defensive end Cameron Wake, the AFC Defensive Player of the Month for October, leads the way with 8.5 of Miami’s 23 sacks.
Linebacker play also has been solid. Karlos Dansby and Kevin Burnett are the top two tacklers on a Miami team that is second in the AFC in points allowed at 18.6 per game.
The defensive problems are mainly in the secondary. While the Dolphins are giving up an average of just 83.9 yards per game on the ground, they’ve been riddled through the air to the tune of 316.8 per game.
“We’re giving up way too many yards,’’ said defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle, adding there are mitigating circumstances such as opponents throwing more passes against the Dolphins than any other team.
Regardless, it was an embarrassing showing against Luck, who, in his eighth NFL game, looked like Tom Brady in his eighth NFL season. Luck completed 30 of 48 passes for two touchdowns with no interceptions in the 23-20 win.
Not helping Miami’s pass defense has been cornerback Richard Marshall being lost indefinitely with a back injury after four games. It was the confidence the Dolphins had in Marshall that led them to trade Vontae Davis to the Colts in August.
The latest goat in the secondary was cornerback Sean Smith, who gave up a touchdown pass to the Colts that could have been an interception and dropped a potential late-game interception that could have turned the game around. But Smith at least has the ability, as do several other Miami defensive backs, to turn things around in the second half.
It’s generally been a special first half of the season for the special teams.
The Dolphins used a successful fake punt last month to beat St. Louis and later in the month had a blocked punt for a touchdown, a blocked field goal and a recovered onside that helped them win at the New York Jets.
All Brandon Fields is doing is having potentially the best season a punter has had in NFL history. Fields is averaging 51.6 yards per boot, on pace to break Sammy Baugh’s 1940 NFL record of 51.4.
Kicker Dan Carpenter, though, has been more shaky than usual. Carpenter is 12-of-16 (75.0 percent) on field goals after going 29-of-34 (85.3 percent) last year. He missed two field goals, including a 48-yarder in overtime, in Miami’s 23-20 home setback to the Jets in September.
There have been few complaints in the return game. Marcus Thigpen is averaging 28.2 yards on kickoff returns and 14.1 on punt returns, including a 72-yarder for a touchdown.
Thanks to Thigpen, the Dolphins are averaging 5.2 yards per kickoff return more than their foes and 4.3 more per punt return. That’s valuable field position.
Look for Tannehill to continue to show development and for Bush to at least show some signs of his old self. But their close losses might have dug the Dolphins too big a hole to make the playoffs.
The setback at 5-3 Indianapolis means the Dolphins would lose a tiebreaker to the Colts and might have to finish a game ahead of them to earn a wild-card berth. They suffered a key division defeat to the Jets, which means Miami might have to sweep the Patriots to win the AFC East.
“You have to realize where you are at and push forward,’’ said Tannehill, knowing the Dolphins must move on from the season’s three devastating losses, including blowing a 13-point lead and falling at Arizona 24-21 in overtime in September.
“We are at a critical point in the season, halfway through, and it can go either way from here. I’m confident in the guys we have in the locker room. I think our mindset is right, it’s just a matter of putting it into action right now.”
The second half starts with a stretch of two games in five days in which the Dolphins need to win both. If Miami can’t beat 3-6 Tennessee at home Sunday and 3-5 Buffalo on the road Nov. 15, don’t count on a postseason trip.
Even if there isn’t one this season, the future still looks bright for the Dolphins thanks to the presence of Tannehill. So call the Fish tank now half full rather than half empty.
Chris Tomasson can be reached at christomasson@hotmail.com or on Twitter @christomasson
