Despite Coyotes' struggles, tanking is no option
GLENDALE, Ariz. -- The Coyotes are seven points off the Western Conference playoff pace heading into Saturday's game against the Calgary Flames at Gila River Arena.
That fact has angry fans divided into several camps just 23 games into the season. There is the blame-Mike-Smith camp, the blame-Keith-Yandle camp, the blame-Dave-Tippett camp, the blame-Don-Maloney-camp and the blame-ownership camp.
We're not sure who would lose in a poll.
There are, of course, the diehards who refuse to utter a bad word about the organization, but there is another, increasingly vocal and fast growing camp: The tank-the-season camp.
The reasoning here is simple. Finish with one of the league's worst records and the Coyotes will be able to draft the player this franchise has needed most since Jeremy Roenick left, perhaps even since Dale Hawerchuk left: a franchise center.
There are two franchise centers available in this year's draft -- Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel -- two guys almost every GM and coach in the league will tell you are can't-miss, course-altering stars.
While the idea of tanking for them is simple, the logic is flawed, so let's get this out of the way immediately and then focus on the why. The Coyotes will not tank the 2014-15 season. Not going to happen. Not a chance.
"I don't think that's something I would ever accept under any circumstance," said Maloney, the Coyotes GM. "Tanking is not in Tip's DNA, it's not in my DNA, it's not in ownership's DNA and it's not in the players' DNA.
Flames (14-8-3) at Coyotes (9-11-3)
When: Saturday, 8 p.m.
Where: Gila River Arena, Glendale
TV: FOX Sports Arizona
Injuries: Arizona: F David Moss (upper body) and D Brandon Gormley (lower body) are day to day. Calgary: Sam Bennett (shoulder surgery), Mikael Backlund (abdominal surgery), Joe Colborne (upper body), Matt Stajan (knee), Mason Raymond (shoulder).
Quick facts: Flames F Devin Setoguchi cleared waivers Thursday and has been re-assigned to Adirondack, the team's AHL affiliate. Setoguchi set a career-high for points with 65 in San Jose in 2008-09 but has no points in 12 games this season. "He's skating around right now like he's got a 300-pound gorilla on his back," GM Brad Treliving said. ... Calgary was just three points off the Pacific Division and Western Conference leads heading into Friday's games. ... F Jiri Hudler, perhaps the least-talked-about star in the NHL, leads the team with 10 goals and is second on the club with 20 points. ... The Coyotes recalled F Brendan Shinnimin from Portland on Friday.
"Just that idea destroys the whole credibility of an organization. We would all love a franchise player -- or two or three -- but that's not how you go about it."
The idea of tanking overtakes fans wherever you find teams withering while franchise players are ripening on the amateur vines. But you'd be hard pressed to find an instance (cough, 2011 Indianapolis Colts, cough) where the team actually played along with this approach.
"Players are paid to win, coaches are paid to win, and I'm paid to win," Maloney said. "If we tanked in order to rebuild, I wouldn't be around for the rebuild."
Tanking is a notion put forth by people who don't understand the culture of a locker room and the mindset of athletes' or former athletes sitting in coaching or management chairs.
That's not to say the Coyotes don't need more elite prospects flowing through their system. Every team feels good about the prospects it has coming, but until Max Domi, Brendan Perlini and the like realize their potential, it's just talk.
The current roster boasts just four players who have been drafted since Maloney took over as GM in 2007: forward Mikkel Boedker (2008), defensemen Michael Stone (2008), Brandon Gormley (2010) and Connor Murphy (2011). The low number is a product of many things, including a smaller scouting staff and budget while the team was searching for an ownership group, poor talent evaluations and draft selections over the years and some bad luck in the case of Kyle Turris and Brett MacLean.
"If you look at all the successful teams in the NHL, they may add a few key free agents later, but by and large, they are built with guys they drafted," Maloney said.
There remains the possibility that the Coyotes would look to improve themselves down the road by trading valuable pieces if this season spirals beyond repair.
"If things go completely south and it's clear the playoffs are not happening, maybe it becomes time to make other decisions," Maloney said. "But again, that would be with the idea of building, not tanking."
Even if the Coyotes chose to tank, there is another problem: The NHL has instituted a new draft lottery system that debuts with the 2015 Draft. Here's how it works.
The NHL will hold the lottery in April. Even if the Coyotes finish with the league's worst record, they only have a 20 percent chance of landing the top pick (in all probability, McDavid). The current format (it will change in 2016) would still mean they get the No. 2 pick (presumably Eichel), but if Arizona finishes with the league's second-worst record, its chances of landing the No. 1 pick are just 13.5 percent. Worse yet, if the one team that finishes with a worse record than Arizona does not win the lottery, that team would automatically get the No. 2 pick and the Coyotes would get bumped to No. 3.
The 2015 Draft is widely regarded as deep, but beyond McDavid and Eichel, there is little consensus on franchise-type players, so it's hard to say whether the third or 14th pick would land such a player.
As much as the Coyotes have struggled this season, they still lead Buffalo, Edmonton and Columbus by seven points apiece and Carolina by six. How would you guarantee that Arizona could finish below all of those teams?
There is one final cautionary tale fans should heed when contemplating a complete tank. Just because the Coyotes get the No. 1 or No. 2 pick, there's no guarantee that success will follow in short order.
"People think that if you tank this one season and get a star then you're going to turn around the next year and be a great team, but it's not that simple," Maloney said. "In order to do the things you would need to do to tank, you'd be talking about a long-term rebuilding project."
Exhibit A is the Edmonton Oilers. The Oilers have picked first three times in the past five drafts and in the top seven all of those years. Here are those picks: Taylor Hall (No. 1, 2010), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (No. 1, 2011), Nail Yakupov (No. 1, 2012), Darnell Nurse (No. 7, 2013), Leon Draisaitl (No. 3, 2014).
Where are the Oilers now? They're dead last in the Western Conference with 15 points, they just fired their goalie coach (yeah, that was the problem) and they endured a walk of shame past booing fans after they were blown out at home by the Chicago Blackhawks, 7-1, on Nov. 22.
"The only way you breed a winning culture is by going into every game looking to win," said Maloney, who was not addressing the Oilers' situation. "When you take that approach, that's when good things happen in your organization."
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