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Dale Romans wasn't sure if talented but terribly inconsistent Vow to Wager was good enough to cut it on the Kentucky Derby trail, so the trainer left the colt off the early Triple Crown nomination entry list in January.
``He always trained like he was talented enough ... but he hadn't put it all together at the time we had to nominate, so that's why I left him off,'' Romans said.
Apparently, his horse took the snub personally.
Vow to Wager responded by breaking his maiden at Turfway Park on Jan. 31, then backed it up with a win in the $100,000 John Battaglia Memorial Stakes on Feb. 27.
A solid performance over the Polytrack in the $500,000 Lane's End Stakes on Saturday would likely catapult him into the Kentucky Derby picture.
Then again, Romans isn't ready just yet to put up the money for a late Triple Crown nomination.
Vow to Wager will go off as a 20-1 long shot and start from the outside post when the 10-horse field of 3-year-olds heads to the starting gate for the 1 1/8-mile race.
Connemara, a winner three times in four career starts - all on synthetic surfaces - is the morning-line favorite at 9-5 and will start from the rail for trainer Todd Pletcher.
The chestnut colt by Giant's Causeway won the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Park on Feb. 20, avenging the only loss of his career by pulling away from Ranger Heartley at the line to win by 1 1/4 lengths.
The two will meet again on Saturday. Ranger Heartley, trained by John Sadler, will start from the fifth post at 6-1 odds.
``He's a talented horse and he sure likes the synthetic so I mean he's going to be competitive,'' Romans said of Connemara, who is returning to Turfway after winning the first race of his career there as a 2-year-old last fall.
Pletcher already has a handful of Derby candidates - including Fountain of Youth winner Eskendereya - and isn't quite ready to add Connemara to the list as he searches for that elusive Derby win.
``If he does well, whether he goes in the Derby would probably depend more on how he did training at Churchill following the race,'' Pletcher said.
Romans hopes he gets to have the same dilemma, mostly because the problem with Vow to Wager has never been his training.
The colt has little problem posting blazing times in workouts and seems just as comfortable on dirt as he does on Polytrack.
``He trains very well on the dirt,'' Romans said. ``He's in Churchill training right now and seems to really get over the ground well. He's had a couple of good works there and I don't think it's the poly.''
Instead, Romans thinks his horse's problems have all been in his head.
Vow to Wager didn't hit the board in his three starts as a 2-year-old
Over the winter, however, the light appeared to come on. He won easily with jockey John McKee in the saddle in January then followed it up with a win in the Battaglia four weeks later when front-runner Codoy was disqualified for interference.
``My pony continued to the wire, but he was just - everywhere we went (Codoy) was running box on us,'' Romans said. ``The horse kept running and I was real happy with him.''
Romans figures Vow to Wager will have to finish first or second to warrant a shot at the Derby, and it won't be easy in a Connemara field that includes Dean's Kitten and Northern Giant, who are co-second choices at 5-1.
While Vow to Wager is surging, Kettle River is slumping after finishing eighth in the Sham Stakes.
``He'll need to show big improvement and I'm hoping he rebounds here; that's pretty much it in a nutshell,'' said trainer Eoin Harty. ``The Lane's End won't be his last shot as a stakes horse, but it would be his last as far as the Kentucky Derby is concerned (if he doesn't run well).''
