By MICHAEL SCOTT
Special to FOXSportsDetroit.com
Congratulations to Max Scherzer, who was the best pitcher in the American League from Day 1 of the 2013 season and has his first Cy Young Award.
Now comes the hard part for the Tigers -- to get the maximum value for Max.
That’s right, GM Dave Dombrowski owes it to the team to trade the reigning Cy Young winner before he toes the slab at Comerica Park even one more time.
You know the economics. Max picked the perfect time for his career season: 29 years old and one season away from free agency.
He earned $6.725 million this year and will surely at least double it in arbitration for 2014. The price of signing Scherzer isn't going down anytime soon.
Justin Verlander and Prince Fielder are both on the books for more than $20 million per season over the next several years. MVP Miguel Cabrera has also surpassed that threshold, and his contract is up after 2015.
Conservatively, you’re talking about $75 million for three players. The buck has to stop someplace, doesn’t it?
The team does have a ready-made replacement in the rotation in lefty Drew Smyly. A rotation of Verlander, Anibal Sanchez ($16 million), Doug Fister, Rick Porcello and Smyly would certainly be good enough to win the Central Division again.
Even though Scherzer will likely never go 21-3 again, he's still an All-Star pitcher. A young, healthy, hard-throwing pitcher is going to break the bank.
So do the Tigers hold onto him for one more year, make a huge run at the World Series, or trade him to the highest bidder?
I say do both.
This team is talented enough to trade Max, get great value and still be a strong contender. Here’s a few ideas:
• Trade Scherzer to Texas for Elvis Andrus or Jurickson Profar and a minor-league pitcher.
Yes, Profar and Andrus are both shortstops, and we’re all in love with Jose Iglesias. But there’s no doubt that either Ranger could play second base, which would allow the soon-to-be-overpriced Omar Infante to sign elsewhere.
Andrus is signed through 2023 for about $15 million per season. He's a two-time All-Star who averages about 50 steals a year. Put him at the top of the lineup and watch how things change.
Profar just completed a somewhat disappointing rookie year, but is generally considered the best prospect in the game. He has an electric bat and would give the Tigers something they desperately need -- youth and athleticism.
With the savings, the Tigers could sign a closer (preferably not Joe Nathan) and be set for next year.
• Trade Scherzer and Austin Jackson to the Los Angeles Dodgers for outfielder Matt Kemp and pitcher Zach Lee.
A-Jax’s biggest crime is that he’s a good player. He's not, however the great five-tool prospect he was hyped as when he was with the Yankees.
He's not a leadoff hitter, either. We've seen that in two of the past three playoffs.
Kemp is a huge risk -- he, too, makes $21 million a season and has been hurt most of the past two seasons. But with Torii Hunter entering the last year of his contract and Nick Castellanos still a rookie, Kemp would give the Tigers another power bat.
Additionally, once Victor Martinez leaves after 2014, Kemp can get some "off" days as the DH. Remember, in his last healthy season, Kemp nearly won the Triple Crown and took home a Gold Glove, as well.
Lee is the Dodgers top pitching prospect, which would give Detroit some much-needed depth in the farm system.
• Trade Scherzer to St Louis for pitchers Trevor Rosenthal and Joe Kelly or Lance Lynn.
This deal might be unlikely, but it’s fun to think about. As we saw throughout the playoffs, the Cardinals are fully stocked in young pitching prospects.
Michael Wacha was their best pitcher in October. Carlos Martinez has been called “Little Pedro” -- and not just because of their same last names.
There’s no way St. Louis would trade either one of those guys. But if the Cards are lucky, Wacha, Martinez, Rosenthal or Kelly might develop into someone as good as Scherzer.
So the question is, would the Cards trade for a Missouri native who might be willing to sign a contract extension right now to play for the team he grew up rooting for?
More important, would they pony up big dollars for a true ace?
St. Louis is already considered one of the prohibitive favorites to return to the World Series. A rotation featuring (NL Cy Young runner-up) Adam Wainwright, Scherzer, Wacha, 15-game winner Shelby Miller and Martinez would rival Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and whoever else the Dodgers throw out; and Steven Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman and the Nationals.
As the Tigers are well aware, swing-and-miss stuff wins in the playoffs. The Cardinals would be nearly unhittable.
Although unlikely to happen, this move has huge upside for the Tigers, as well.
Rosenthal has been trained as a starter, but as he showed in October, his 98 mph fastballs play well as a closer. Detroit would be fine with him in either role.
Lynn, despite his portly appearance, is a two-time All-Star who would be a very solid back-end starter.
Kelly acquitted himself quite well in his first two seasons -- both in the rotation and bullpen.
The bottom line is, maybe these deals will work, maybe they won’t. But the Tigers need to decide whether to hold onto Max and hope they win the World Series. If they come up short and Scherzer leaves, they get only a draft pick.
Dombrowski has never been shy when it comes to making big trades. This one could be his biggest.
