Our Position vs. Fantasy Defensive Points Allowed tool can help you find weak spots, but it can’t help you if you drafted Chris Johnson. What the heck happened to that guy? Do you think he owes you some of his newfound wealth if you drafted him?
As always, please remember that the players listed are mostly meant to be borderline guys, who need reasons for you to play or bench them. You won’t see recommendations to start Aaron Rodgers and LeSean McCoy, because you should always start Aaron Rodgers and LeSean McCoy. Make sense? Good.
Note: The fantasy points referenced below are from FOXSports.com standard leagues.
Week 9 Byes: Panthers, Lions, Jaguars, Vikings
Quarterbacks
Stay away: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills (vs. Jets)
Fitzpatrick and the Bills host the Jets, who have been the league’s stingiest team against opposing quarterbacks, giving up just 8.5 Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG). Fitz has been throwing less lately, averaging 28 pass attempts over his last three games after throwing more than 36 times per game in his first five. If you had Fred Jackson playing like O.J. Simpson, wouldn’t you run the ball more often, too? Give Fitzpatrick the week off if you can.
Also:
• Joe Flacco has been maddeningly inconsistent this season, with game-by-game yardage totals of 224-197-389-163-305-137-336. On Sunday night, he’ll participate in another chapter of the NFL’s best rivalry against the Steelers’ top-ranked pass defense. Troy Polamalu & Co. have given up just 14.9 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks, making this an unfriendly matchup for Flacco’s fantasy owners.
Play, play, play: Matt Cassel, Chiefs (vs. Dolphins)
Cassel has a date with a Miami pass defense that has given up 25 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks (31st in the league). With rookie WR Jon Baldwin now contributing, Cassel’s options have improved. He should have a solid game this week.
Also:
• For all the bad things Philip Rivers did on Monday night, let’s remember that he threw for 369 yards, too. Rivers has been below 250 yards only once all season, and will face a Packers’ D that ranks 28th with 21.3 FPPG allowed to opposing quarterbacks. If you were thinking about giving up on Rivers due to his disappointing fantasy season, you should reconsider.
• Carson Palmer’s three-interception debut (in one half!) in Week 7 didn’t exactly inspire confidence, but his matchup this week against the terrible Bronco pass defense (league-worst 25.3 FPPG allowed to opposing QBs) is very appealing. If you need a bye-week replacement for someone like Matthew Stafford or Cam Newton, grab Palmer.
Running Backs
Stay away: Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers (vs. Ravens)
Mendenhall is lucky Chris Johnson has such a big contract, because he’s worthy of nearly as much ire from fantasy owners for his subpar season. Mendenhall has three touchdowns, with only one game of more than 70 rushing yards. The Ravens are giving up just 11.2 FPPG per game to opposing running backs, and don’t figure to be the victims of a Mendenhall breakout.
Also:
• Speaking of Johnson, he’s now in some sort of timeshare with Javon Ringer, and will run against an above-average Falcons’ D (16.5 FPPG to opposing RBs) this week. If you own Johnson, you shouldn’t ditch him, but you obviously need to manage your expectations. Even if he’s the Titans’ busier back, this matchup isn’t good for him.
• Dallas’ DeMarco Murray might not have to contend with Felix Jones for one more week, but he will run into a Seahawks’ defense that has allowed just 15.8 FPPG to opposing backs, and permits a league-low 3.2 yards per carry. Murray, who runs behind a suspect offensive line, is a shaky fantasy play in Week 9.
Play, play, play: LeGarrette Blount, Bucs (at Saints)
Blount is scheduled to return from a knee injury to run against a soft Saints’ D that’s giving up 20.8 FPPG to opposing running backs, as well as a league-high 5.5 yards per carry. Did you see Steven Jackson rip up the Saints for 159 yards and two scores in Week 8? Blount could have that kind of game this week. Start him if you have him.
Also:
• If Willis McGahee (broken hand) is active against the Raiders, you should play him, as the Silver and Black have allowed 22.4 FPPG to opposing backs (28th in the league). If McGahee can’t go – he’ll be wearing a cast if he does – Knowshon Moreno becomes a solid option. Moreno had 74 yards from scrimmage on 15 touches last week, and even though Tim Tebow is likely to steal most of the goal-line opportunities, Moreno will still be worthy of your fantasy consideration.
Wide Receivers
Stay away: Steve Johnson, Bills (vs. Jets)
It’s Johnson’s turn on Revis Island, and that’s not a friendly place for wide receivers, who have scored just 14.7 points per game against the J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS! Stay away if you can, especially in standard formats.
Also:
• The word on Balimore’s Anquan Boldin is that he’s having trouble getting separation from opposing defensive backs. That’s probably why he puts up good numbers in some weeks, and not in others. Against the Steelers (13.7 FPPG to opposing WRs), Boldin figures to have plenty of black jerseys around wherever he goes.
Play, play, play: Mario Manningham, Giants (at Patriots)
Manningham started in fewer than 40 percent of FOXSports.com leagues last week, and that needs to change. Super Mario has been targeted 26 times over his last three games, catching 16 passes for 175 yards and a touchdown. This week, he’ll face a Patriots’ defense that’s giving up a league-worst 29.1 FPPG to opposing wideouts. The Giants-Pats game looks to be a shootout, and with Hakeem Nicks slowed (or maybe even out) due to a hamstring injury, Manningham could put up some big numbers. Go ahead and get Victor Cruz in there, too.
Also:
• No matter which Rams quarterback is throwing passes to Brandon Lloyd this week, it’ll be against a Cardinals’ defense that has allowed 25.9 FPPG to opposing wide receivers (28th in the league). Lloyd has been targeted 25 times in his two games as a member of the Rams, catching 12 passes for 127 yards and a touchdown. Lloyd is clearly his team’s top receiving target, and has a very friendly Week 9 matchup.
• The Broncos have given up 27.5 FPPG to opposing wide receivers, which is 31st in the league. Carson Palmer has plenty of people to throw to – including new arrival T.J. Houshmandzadeh – but Darrius Heyward-Bey has been the best of the Raider bunch, with 27 receptions for 434 yards and a touchdown. There’s a bit of uncertainty, since we don’t yet know how much Palmer will target Heyward-Bey, but he still looks like a stong fantasy start.
• If you’re thinking about bailing on Larry Fitzgerald, wait one more week. He’s got a good matchup against a weak Rams’ defense (27 FPPG to opposing WRs), and should produce even if QB Kevin Kolb can’t play due to his toe injury.
Tight Ends
Stay away: Kellen Winslow, Buccaneers (at Saints)
The Saints’ defense isn’t very good, but their one strong point in fantasy has been their stinginess against tight ends, to whom they’ve allowed just six FPPG. Winslow catches four or five passes per game, but his yardage totals have been low, and he’s only scored once. You can do better this week.
Also:
• Pittsburgh’s Heath Miller keeps burning me in this spot. He did it again in Week 8, catching seven passes for 85 yards against the Pats. This week, Miller has as tough a matchup as he’ll encounter all season, as the Ravens have allowed just 2.5 FPPG to opposing tight ends, and are one of two teams not to give up a touchdown to them (the Giants are the other). If your tight ends are a week-to-week proposition, this week looks like a “sit” for Miller. I have to make the right call on him one of these weeks, right?
Play, play, play: Brent Celek, Eagles (vs. Bears)
Celek was in this space last week, and we’re going to roll with him again. After more than a year of being ignored by Michael Vick, Celek has caught 11 passes for 136 yards and two touchdowns in his last two games, and has led his team in targets over that span. The Bears are permitting more FPPG (12.1) to tight ends than any team in the league, making Celek a strong start in Week 9.
Also:
• Playing the Bills has been a nice proposition for fantasy tight ends this season. Chan Gailey’s troops rank 25th in the league with 8.8 FPPG allowed to tight ends, and with the Jets in town, Dustin Keller is an interesting play. Keller slumped from Weeks 4-6, but bounced back in Week 7 with four receptions for 53 yards. If you’ve got Brandon Pettigrew or Greg Olsen on a bye, Keller is an intriguing plug-and-play.
• Owen Daniels plays in most games for you, right? This week, the Texans host the Browns, who rank 26th against opposing tight ends with 9.1 FPPG allowed. Daniels is a better start than normal in Week 9.
