Clayton Kershaw for National League MVP is gaining momentum. His 17 wins are impressive, especially when you consider he missed six starts earlier in the season with a strained muscle in the back of his left shoulder.
Justin Verlander was the last pitcher to win MVP in 2011, Roger Clemens was the last before him in 1986. Take a look at their respective MVP seasons:
Clayton Kershaw likely has four starts left this season. He could get five, but that fifth start would come in one of the last two games of the season. That only happens if the Dodgers haven't clinched the division by then. It also means they couldn't start him in Game 1 of the Divisional Series. Don Mattingly is really hoping Clayton Kershaw only has four starts left this season.
A fair prediction for Kershaw if he makes four more starts:
The strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) grab your attention. To put it in somewhat historical context, consider the following:
That's no small feat when you stack him up against former MVP winners. Kershaw has been a dominant strikeout pitcher this year and better than both Verlander and Clemens in their MVP years.
I can't get past the innings though. In 2013, Anibal Sanchez finished 4th in the AL Cy Young voting despite having the best ERA and FIP in the league, along with the third best K/9. It was those innings, only 182, that prevented him from finishing higher. Innings matter, and Kershaw is currently tied for 21st in the National League in innings pitched.
Clayton Kershaw has averaged 232.1 IP over the previous three seasons. If he finishes near or below 200 IP for this season, I can't justify an MVP trophy. The case against pitchers for MVP is that they don't play every day. In 2014, Kershaw will have actually only pitched 1/6 of the regular season, or 17 percent of his team's games. That's too little for an MVP.
