California Chrome no sure thing as he takes to the turf

California Chrome no sure thing as he takes to the turf

Published Nov. 28, 2014 1:37 p.m. ET

The 73rd running of the Grade 1, $300,000 Hollywood Derby on Saturday features the grass debut of California Chrome.

California Chrome is the Kentucky Derby winner who rebounded off two poor efforts following his Preakness Stakes victory to miss by a nose and a neck four weeks ago in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Classic. His biggest challenger may be the filly Lexie Lou, who beat male horses earlier this year in the $1 million Queen's Plate Stakes and who most recently won the Grade 3 Autumn Miss Stakes. Sawyer's Hill is another in excellent recent form, having led late before coming up a neck shy of winning the Grade 2 Twilight Derby last month.

Lexie Lou tied her career best 106 Equibase Speed Figure last month when winning the Autumn Miss Stakes on the turf at Santa Anita, her first start outside of Canada. Jockey Corey Nakatani rode Lexie Lou for the first time in the Autumn Miss and rides her again in the Hollywood Derby. This isn't the first time the filly has tackled males as she won the Queen's Plate Stakes in July in a field of 15. With four wins in her last five starts, having won on turf and at the distance of the race, Lexie Lou gets top billing to win this year's Hollywood Derby.

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As most people know, California Chrome won six races in a row starting 11 months ago in December of 2013 and culminating with his victory in the Preakness Stakes in May. Earning back-to-back 107 Equibase Speed Figures in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, California Chrome was denied his place in history when fourth in the Belmont Stakes in June before a three and one-half month layoff. Returning in September, California Chrome badly disappointed as the favorite in the Pennsylvania Derby but redeemed himself just four weeks ago when battling down to the wire in the Breeders' Cup Classic, missing the win in a three horse photo by a nose and a neck. Facing just three-year-olds in the Hollywood Derby after facing a mixed group of older and his own age group in the Classic, and coming off a career best (and field high) 119  in the Classic, the only question regarding his ability to win this race may be whether he can transfer his recent form to the grass.

Sawyer's Hill led from the start before coming up a neck short of victory on the wire in the Twilight Derby last month. Earning a career best 109 at the distance of the Hollywood Derby, Sawyer's Hill is likely to establish an easy lead from the start once again and if able to take a step forward off that last effort may not relinquish the lead on the wire in this race.

The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures: Cabral (105), Flamboyant (108), and Talco (107).

My Selections:

Lexie Lou

California Chrome

Sawyer's Hill

 

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