Continuing series of Baseball Joes in which Ken predicts which paired team will win more games in 2015 (“projected wins” via FanGraphs) …
Cubs (84 projected wins) vs. White Sox (77)
The White Sox drew almost universal praise for their off-season, yet again do not fare well in most projections; Baseball Prospectus recently explored the juxtaposition, posting an article that said the White Sox “manage to outperform their PECOTA projections more often than not.”
What gives this time?
The way FanGraphs sees it, the White Sox will not fare well at catcher, second base, third and right field, and the bottom two spots in their rotation are another potential issue. The White Sox, naturally, hold a different view – they’re high on right fielder Avi Garcia, for example, and think righty Hector Noesi and lefty John Danks will be better than expected and figure that Carlos Sanchez/Gordon Beckham/Micah Johnson will provide enough of a solution at second base.
Given the additions of right-hander Jeff Samardzija, closer David Robertson, left-hander Zach Duke, first baseman Adam LaRoche and left fielder Melky Cabrera, a 10-win jump from 2014 does not look unreasonable – particularly if rookie left-hander Carlos Rodon can contribute at some point in either the rotation or bullpen.
The Cubs are a total wild card, considering the number of young players who will play significant roles. Young players can look brilliant one day, brutal the next, and that’s why I’m going conservative with my prediction, despite the proven ability of new manager Joe Maddon to succeed with young talent.
The additions of catcher Miguel Montero, center fielder Dexter Fowler and outfielder Chris Denorfia will help, but I’m unsure of the rotation beyond Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta, and even less sure of the bullpen. I love the idea of the Cubs. I’m just not sure I love them to be an actual threat in 2015.
My pick: White Sox 83 wins, Cubs 82
