Buy or sell ... or neither?
By Randy Hill
FOXSportsArizona.com
To help us enjoy the closing skirmish for Western Conference playoff tickets, let's think of this event as a row-boat race.
The competing vessels include the one occupied by the Denver Nuggets, who just rowed up to the dock and swapped out most of the crew, including the two best oarsmen. The Utah Jazz have lost 13 of their last 17 games, which means that -- in addition to choosing the wrong fork in the river -- they're taking on water and sinking fast.
The New Orleans Hornets have lost eight of 10 but have their strongest rower -- Emeka Okafor -- back in the boat and should start to pick up speed. The Memphis Grizzlies have been rowing like mad, but a key member of their crew recently hurt his shoulder.
Closing sort of fast are the Phoenix Suns, who have won 12 of their last 18 games and -- despite encouragement from out-of-town interests -- are not throwing assets overboard in an effort to become more streamlined.
So, with Steve Nash and Grant Hill still helping Phoenix in its their attempt to pull past the others, the Suns are not approaching Thursday's NBA trading deadline as sellers.
But we're not exactly convinced they're going to be buyers, either.
OK, so nothing would seem like a shock these days, but after two major roster shakeups since the 2010 Western Conference finals, an additional move might be dicey in terms of Nash's drive for cohesion. At 27-27, the 10th-seeded Suns -- who check in at 2 1/2 games behind Utah and Memphis -- only have 28 games remaining in their quest for the postseason.
The chemistry seems fine, and the defense -- which was on pace to become historically bad -- has allowed nine fewer points per 100 possessions over this 18-game run. It also should be noted that while the Suns are only 6-4 against losing teams during this stretch, they're 6-2 against winning teams.
So the defensive uprising shouldn't be dismissed as schedule-related anathema to the team's true identity.
The offense continues to be statistically stable, although the fourth-quarter efficiency has been alarmingly weak.
What about that upcoming schedule? Well, after meeting the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday night at US Airways Center, the Suns take a six-game trip with four stops in cities that offer losing teams (the other two are Boston and Oklahoma City). Unfortunately, since the Dec. 18 trade with Orlando, the Suns are only 3-4 against losing teams on the road.
With a fourth-quarter offensive upgrade required, where else should the Suns seek improvement?
How about defensive rebounding? Even with Marcin Gortat on the floor and Channing Frye gritting his teeth more often, that category still has the capacity to stink. As potential deadline buyers, it wouldn't seem strange if the Suns attempted to acquire another four man with rebounding chops.
According to desperate rumors circulating in blogger land, the team may have an interest in bringing back Boris Diaw from the Charlotte Bobcats. While the Bobcats have been loyal trade partners, it would seem a bit nutty for the Suns to think a guy averaging five rebounds per game would be the answer to any prevailing shot-retrieval issue. And Diaw is owed another $9 million next season, making the idea of his return seem even more painful.
Although several league sources believe deadline talk has been relatively quiet in Phoenix, many of the trades that happen are those not offered for public consumption.
With that on the table, let's take a look at the limited chips the Suns have to offer.
Take a bow, Vince Carter. Now sit down, because you haven't played well enough lately to generate interest from contending teams that might need an offense-happy wing player to assist a stretch run. Remember, Vince's tab for this season is $17.3 million, which means that -- in addition to their remaining trade-exception space -- the Suns would have to take back a potentially big contract in moving Vince. Probably better to pay the $4 million buyout after the new collective-bargaining agreement is reached and see who's available for purchase.
Mickael Pietrus is another veteran wing player with playoff experience and an inconsistent shooting stroke. But Pietrus is making a much more reasonable $5 million and change this season, will be owed about the same next season (his contract-ending, player-option season) and usually works hard on defense.
He may have enough game to fetch a decent rebounder in return. But he also has returned to coach Alvin Gentry's rotation and seems to be a strong asset in the Suns' effort to reach the playoffs now.
An uninvolved wing player is Josh Childress, who has a long-term contract that seems capable of wrecking any potential trade interest. While Childress is good enough to help a contending team that's thin on the perimeter, moving his contract would seem to require a blow-up-the-team scenario in a package with, oh, Nash. Between now and the deadline, let's cue the hell-freezes-over music.
It also should be noted that -- with the potential loss of Carter and Hill before the start of next season -- Childress could find himself in Gentry's rotation.
Hakim Warrick? Few teams seem interested in a power forward who doesn't rebound, defend or stretch the floor and has a long-term contract. Teams are crazy that way.
Backup point guard Goran Dragic may qualify as the Suns' best young player, but his inconsistent play (especially at the start of the fourth quarter) has been a disappointment. Dragic may have enough value to bring a good rebounder in return, and finding another young point guard of his caliber doesn't seem as difficult as some may think. For the record, there hasn't been any trade chatter regarding Dragic tossed into the wind by any credible sources.
Robin Lopez is another young Sun with assumed value, but he hasn't moved the pre-deadline meter. Lopez has provided hints of solid play, but the third-year center has missed 45 of a possible 136 games due to injury the past two seasons. Lopez won't turn 23 until April, but teams potentially interested in acquiring him wouldn't mind seeing the 7-footer bring it on a consistent basis.
Hey, if he did that, the Suns probably wouldn't need to make another deal.