By Martin Gandy
For Foxsportssouth.com
March 4, 2010
Like the critics who are bemoaning the loss of Javier Vazquez in the Atlanta Braves starting rotation, there are just as many critics bemoaning the loss of Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez from the Braves bullpen. The complaint has been that while the Braves replaced those two relievers, they replaced them with aging veterans who may be over the hill in Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito. This, however, is a superficial analysis of the Braves 2010 bullpen.
Replacing either Soriano or Gonzalez with Billy Wagner as the closer is huge. It's bigger than almost anyone realizes. Soriano and Gonzalez were pedestrian at best in their roles as closer and setup man last season. At times they were down right awful, and between them they blew 11 saves in 2009. That's more blown saves than Wagner has had in
any season he's been a closer.
What everyone should be talking about is how we somehow acquired the best closer in baseball not named Mariano Rivera. Billy Wagner is not only good, he's great. He can be the kind of shutdown closer we haven't had since old number-29 came roaring out of the bullpen. How good is Wagner? In his 15-year Major League career he has had only one
season where his ERA has been over 2.85. Only one! His career 2.39 ERA is only slightly higher than Rivera's career number of 2.25, and they both have the exact same 3.93 strikeout-to-walk ratio. (Actually, that stat is kind of amazing; over the course of 15 seasons, facing any number of different batters and situations that each of them have the exact same career strikeout-to-walk ratio.)
Wagner may have just missed a year a half due to surgery, but he proved he was healthy last year in his return to the Mets, and then the Red Sox. He posted a 1.72 ERA in 15.2 innings while striking out a whopping 26 batters. Even though he'll turn 39 later this year, there don't seem to be any signs that Wagner will stop being effective. At the same time, we got him for a bargain at only $7 million for this season. Consider that for the last 8 years Wagner has made more than that each season, and that both Soriano and Gonzalez will each make more this season.
After Wagner in the bullpen is the older Takashi Saito. While there are some signs that Saito is slowing and becoming less effective, he still brings with him more veteran leadership and poise. He is also a fellow countryman of Kenshin Kawakami, and will provide Kenshin with another familiar face and voice this season. Saito has closer's stuff
and can serve not only as a setup man but also insurance against Wagner getting hurt.
Behind Wagner and Saito, the Braves bullpen has more depth than it has had in years. Peter Moylan, Eric O'Flaherty, and Kris Medlen highlight the relief corps. All are hard throwers who have proven they can get people out and throw a lot of innings. Newcomer Jesse Chavez seems like an up-and-coming young middle reliever, and after him the team
has almost a dozen other relievers to choose from this spring, all of whom are better options than the Jeff Bennetts and Buddy Carlyles of the past few years.
This 2010 Braves bullpen may be older, but they are better than last year's pen. Their experience and depth will allow Bobby Cox to have confidence in a larger number of relievers than he has in recent years. The veteran leadership of Wagner, and his ownership of the closer's role, will help everyone else in the bullpen get more comfortable in their bullpen roles -- be they setup man, middle-man, or long relief. The Braves 2010 bullpen is an underrated part of the team, but it may turn out to be one of the most reliable.
