Some of fantasy’s brightest stars failed to meet expectations last season, compared to their career averages or big 2009 seasons.
Will they bounce back?
Hitters
Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia
Howard’s home-run totals since 2006 have been 58-47-48-45-31, and his RBI numbers have been 149-136-141-146-108. His 2010 OPS was a career-low .859, too. What’s up here? At age 31, it’s reasonable to worry about Howard a little. While he might not reach his former heights again, he’s still one of fantasy’s best half-dozen first basemen. And if he hits 45 homers this season, will you be surprised? Howard will probably get part of the way back to his Ruthian ways.
Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia
Utley missed nearly 30 percent of last season (he played 115 games) with a thumb injury. His numbers still declined across the board when prorated over the entire season. Utley might not be a first-rounder this season, but he’s a fine choice in the middle of the second round. His stats will be pretty close to their normal levels.
Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida
Ramirez, 27, missed about 20 games with assorted injuries, had a career low of 92 runs scored, and posted his lowest home run, batting average and OPS totals since 2006. Still, there doesn’t seem to be reason to worry about Ramirez, as even that subpar season for him was pretty great. He’s a solid No. 2 overall pick and should rebound in 2011.
Derek Jeter, SS, New York Yankees
Had career lows in batting average (.270) and OPS (.710)! Hit only 10 home runs! As he approaches age 37, is the Captain finished? Not exactly, but since two of his last three seasons haven’t been up to his usual standard, we should assume that he’s declining like other older players.
Jeter’s biggest problem last year appeared to be that he hit grounders at a career-high rate , more than anyone else in the majors. He probably isn’t fast enough to get away with that, anymore. On the bright side, Jeter’s bad BABIP luck (.307 in 2010, .356 career) should at least partially correct itself. So a .300-plus batting average isn’t out of the question. Jeter isn’t what he used to be, but he’s still fantasy’s fifth- or sixth-best shortstop, so let’s not panic.
Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York Yankees
Count this Yankee fan as being officially worried about A-Rod. Sure, he had 30 homers and 125 RBI. But his .847 OPS last season was his lowest since 1997; his 61 extra-base hits were the second fewest in his career (other than his injury-shortened 2009); his walk rate dropped; and he stole just four bases after being a source of fantasy speed for his entire career. It appears that A-Rod has slowed down in many ways since his 2009 hip surgery. While he should still post solid numbers, a return to super-duper sluggerdom is unlikely. A-Rod is fourth in my third-base rankings, and 22nd overall. I’m not buying this season.
Pablo Sandoval, 3B, San Francisco
In 2009, Sandoval had a tremendous first full season as a big leaguer, batting .330 with 25 home runs and a .943 OPS. The sky was the limit … until it fell last year. Sandoval had a stereotypical sophomore slump, falling to .268 with half as many homers and a .732 OPS. What happened? Maybe it was because Sandoval was overweight, and he’s never been accused of being the most patient hitter in the world. So he probably got himself out a lot. Some misfortune in BABIP and homer-to-fly-ball rate didn’t help, either.
Sandoval might not return to elite hitter status this season, but he’s only 24, so let’s cut him some slack. It sounds like he worked hard in the offseason, and a statistical return to somewhere between his first two years would easily make him a top-10 third baseman. Third base is awful, in case you haven’t noticed.
Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
At this time last year, Kemp was being drafted in the first round just about everywhere. People thought he was ready to break out. But he disappointed as his strikeout rate jumped; he was caught on 15 of his 34 stolen-base attempts; and his batting average slumped to .249. Still, if you assume that Kemp’s .295 BABIP involved some bad luck (his career mark is .344), the rest of his numbers looked pretty close to normal. Kemp is only 26, and giving up on him after one underachieving season is too harsh. Look for a strong campaign from him in 2011.
Adam Lind, 1B/OF/DH, Toronto
Wow, was Lind terrific in 2009. Thirty-five home runs, 114 RBI, a .305 batting average – fantastic. I paid $30 for him in my AL-only auction, and expected more big things. What I got was the worst sequel since Major League 2. Lind’s walk rate dropped; his strikeout rate jumped; his on-base percentage was an awful .287; and he hit 23 home runs. He was horrendous against lefties, posting a god-awful .341 OPS in 137 at bats.
Lind was probably a little lucky as well as good in 2009. So, in retrospect, some decline should have been expected. Also, he showed signs of improvement in the second half of the season. If Lind stops looking like such a hack against southpaws, look for him to settle somewhere in the .275 BA and 25-to-30-homer range this season. However, he played only 16 games in the outfield last year and 11 at first base, so he’ll qualify as a DH-only in some leagues. That hurts his value.
Pitchers
John Lackey, SP, Boston
Lackey’s 4.40 ERA in Boston was much worse than his 3.89 career mark, and there wasn’t a lot to like. His strikeout rate declined, his walk rate increased, and he just didn’t pitch well. Projecting him to rebound this season boils down to one question: Was 2010 an aberration, or the start of a decline? I’ve got Lackey ranked in the low 60s among starters, but that’s not as doom-and-gloom as it might sound. Even if Lackey returns to his career norms in ERA and WHIP (1.32), he won’t be a stud fantasy starter. The projections I’ve seen have him around 4.00, and that sounds about right. Fenway Park isn’t an easy place to pitch, either.
James Shields, SP, Tampa Bay
Ladies and gentlemen, meet my favorite bounceback candidate of 2011! As I wrote in the Rays’ team preview, Shields’ 187 strikeouts against 51 walks (3.67 K/BB) last season was the 10th-best in the majors, and better than that of upper-tier guys like Roy Oswalt, Zack Greinke, Tommy Hanson, Tim Lincecum and Felix Hernandez. If you’re looking for a quick and dirty way to predict a pitcher’s future performance, K/BB is it.
Some bad BABIP luck (.341) contributed mightily to Shields’ 5.18 ERA last year, so don’t be scared away by that unsightly number. Shields gives up too many home runs to ever be a star, but he can be a good No. 4 fantasy starter. He’s a good bet to get his ERA below 4.00, with close to 200 strikeouts. Buy low If you can.
Javier Vazquez, SP, Florida
As a fantasy analyst – and owner – I see reasons for a rebound. Sure, Vazquez’s velocity and strikeout rates declined significantly last season, but he’s only one year removed from being one of the National League’s top five starters. He’s worth a shot as a low-end fourth starter in standard leagues, which is where he’s currently being drafted. We don’t know if Vazquez’s fastball will return. But if we did, we’d have to draft him a lot higher than he’s going now.
