by Brandon Warne
It’s a bit of a short slate of action on this Thursday as some teams have off days heading into weekend series. However, we still managed to suss out some pretty good ones for you, as well as some aces doing their thing. Check ’em out:
Hisashi Iwakuma (SEA) vs. David Price (DET)
1:08 p.m. ET
This matchup gets the premium nod over similar duels chiefly due to the added intrigue of both being on the trading block, thus making starts to alter their trade value as we head toward the July 31 deadline. Iwakuma’s 4.89 ERA is unsightly, but it’s important to remember he’s made just six starts amidst battling a lat injury that cost him almost three months, and after a rough first start back he’s allowed just two earned runs over his last two outings (13.2 innings). With the Mariners falling into last place in recent days, the chances to sell on Iwakuma have increased, as he’ll be 35 early next season and is a free agent this winter. And unfortunately for the Mariners, that means moving him at the bottom of his value. Nevertheless, there’s this start and maybe one more for ’kuma before the Mariners have to make a decision.
It almost seems like Price’s season has flown under the radar, but his 2.32 ERA would be a career best, and he’s allowed two or fewer earned runs in 10 of his last 11 starts. Recent reports suggest the Cubs may be interested, but it’ll be worth wondering what he’ll bring back in a package after last year’s odd deal that netted the Rays just minor leaguer Willy Adames, Nick Franklin, and Drew Smyly. One year later—that is, with one less year under contract—it’s still possible the Tigers pull in more than that. But they haven’t committed to selling and the AL is wide open and Dave Dombrowski is general managing for his job and … OK, you get the point.
Warm-Up Tosses
Here’s a look at today’s “aces in isolation:” Scott Kazmir (opposed by Toronto’s R.A. Dickey), Francisco Liriano (Washington’s Doug Fister), Clayton Kershaw (New York’s Bartolo Colon), and Lance McCullers (Boston’s Wade Miley). Like Price and Iwakuma, Kazmir is likely also auditioning for other teams down the stretch here. And while he’s battled some arm issues throughout the season, he’s still putting together what’s most likely his best big league season as well, with a 2.38 ERA and nearly a strikeout per inning. Kazmir has allowed just one earned run over his last three starts—including an injury-shortened outing so it’s really just 19.1 innings—and over his last 10 starts has lowered his ERA from 3.09 to 2.38—the 10th-best mark in baseball and fifth-best in the AL. Oh, and the second-best (to Sonny Gray’s 2.30) on his team. He’ll be highly sought after.
Liriano isn’t headed anywhere, but he’s pitched fantastically over his last 10 starts, allowing more than two earned runs just twice as he has lowered his ERA from 3.86 to 2.98. He’s allowing an opponents batting average of .192, with 125 strikeouts and 39 walks over 114.2 innings. At the end of the day, Liriano loves Pittsburgh, and it sure seems to love him back.
Kershaw is now amidst that midseason stretch that I suggested earlier he might go on, as he’s thrown 17 scoreless innings over his last two starts with 27 strikeouts, no walks and just 11 hits allowed. It’s pretty remarkable that a guy with a 2.68 ERA could be having a somewhat “disappointing” season yet here we are. And the other funny thing is he’s still being outpaced by teammate Zack Greinke, who has a 43.2 inning scoreless streak going and leads the free world with a 1.30 ERA. These Dodgers are scary.
And finally there’s McCullers, who rounds out this quartet with a 2.52 ERA and 71 strikeouts in 64.1 innings. He’s held opposing batters to a .202 average, and is coming off a rough-ish start against the Rays where he allowed four earned runs but still managed 10 strikeouts. Even the bumps in the road have been mostly smooth for this impressive young righty, whose pitch mix has proven to be pretty impressive despite some worries that it would relegate him to power reliever status. That still could happen, but for now he’s been fantastic.
Ubaldo Jimenez versus Masahiro Tanaka could have easily been the premier duel of the day, but will have to settle for secondary status. Nevertheless, it’s a pair of guys with sub-4.00 ERAs starting for teams in the thick of the AL East hunt. Jimenez is coming off a rough start against Detroit—seven earned in 4.2 innings—but it wasn’t a patented Ubaldo joint, as he walked none and fanned five but allowed three home runs. That his control was on is encouraging, and he’s been able to keep that relatively in check this season. But home runs and Yankee Stadium, well, that could be worrisome. Since a brief late June blip on the radar screen, Tanaka has gotten back to business, allowing just seven earned runs over his last three starts to bring home three straight Yankees wins. He’s fanning exactly a batter per inning, and for the time being looks to be completely healthy.
Ervin Santana versus Garrett Richards carries some intrigue on a getaway day in Los Angeles in large part due to the former getting a start in his old stomping grounds. Big Erv has been solid in two of his three starts coming off suspension, while Richards’ return from a catastrophic leg injury has been up and down, but far more encouraging than not. He’s not quite all the way back, but if his July ERA (2.05) is any indication, he’s making progress.
Jeff Samardzija versus Trevor Bauer is a nice secondary matchup of a couple AL Central righties. Shark is squarely on the trade block as the White Sox’s attempt at contention has backfired in a big way. It’s awfully hard to imagine him sticking on the south side past this year, and as a result is a huge candidate to be traded for a second straight deadline. He’s been better than his numbers show, as he’s been betrayed by bad defense and a tough park to pitch in. He’s also put together a nice string of starts, allowing more than three earned runs just twice over his last seven starts. Someone might get a real diamond in the rough for the stretch run here. Bauer has settled in as a really nice starter for Cleveland, but it’s not without the usual caveats that come with both him and a large part of his rotation mates this season. The search for consistency has been maddening for him, much like Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar as well. After all, just look at the earned run marks for his last six starts: zero, seven, four, two, two, and five. That’s the definition of inconsistency.
Statistics courtesy of Baseball Reference, Brooks Baseball, and Fangraphs.
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