National Football League

All Purpose Playbook: Week 2 NFL survivor pool analysis, fantasy picks and more

Published Sep. 11, 2014 3:01 p.m. ET

Brett Smiley

Welcome to week two of the All-Purpose Playbook, a new Buzzer column that is (1) either a guide to many things NFL and wagering, such as survivor pools and teasers and fantasy football or (2) a road map to hell.

Based on my pretty solid performance last week, it is most importantly a column that still exists! That said, its continuation was not contingent upon avoiding a pick that sent you to the shameful Week 1 survivor pool graveyard, the equivalent to paying for a cruise and falling off the dock before boarding.

That said, we had quite a scare last Sunday, as the Eagles apparently thought they were playing a fifth preseason game at home against the Jaguars. Between the hours of about 1:20 and 2:30 p.m. ET, when Jacksonville held a stunning 17-0 lead, my blood pressure spiked to 180 over 120 and I could only muster one-word sentences.

Onward to Week 2 analysis, beginning with survival pools.

You've made it to Week 2! Congratulations! My swimmies got popped in one pool thanks to the Chicago Bears, but otherwise I invested heavily in Philadelphia, so life is still pretty good.

Based on "pick popularity" in FOX pools right now, the leading selection is the 0-1 New Orleans Saints, favored by 6.5 points on the road at Cleveland: 26% of poolsters have hitched a wagon to the Saints in FOX pools.

That's sheer craziness.

First of all, recall the "Halle Berry Principle": live to die another day. That means taking home teams early in the season. Only resort to a road team if it's a truly elite squad -- of which there are very few -- facing an inferior opponent. It's a young season and we still don't know a team's true colors, so avoid risks.

Second, and more importantly, the Saints perform very well inside on the turf before their boisterous fans at the Superdome. They've proven pretty average on the road, as we learned once again last week in a 37-34 overtime loss in Atlanta.

In 2013, the Saints finished a perfect 8-0 at home and 7-0-1 against the spread. On the road? Three wins and five losses and 1-7 against the spread. It's been the same story for several years. So why are so many people taking the Saints?

After getting lit up early at home last week by the Steelers, the Browns stormed back from 24 points down before falling on a last second field goal. The Browns are not a pushover. Although Pittsburgh shredded the secondary on a couple long balls to wideouts Antonio Brown and Markus Wheaton, it's still a solid group overall led by Joe Haden and Donte Whitner. And sure, the Browns lost running back Ben Tate, but rookies Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell were serviceable in his stead, tallying a combined 132 yards on 16 carries.

Linebacker Karlos Dansby (two passes defended last week) and that secondary will have their hands full with Jimmy Graham and the Saints offense as a whole, but the Saints defense hardly brought a pass rush against the Falcons who allowed Matt Ryan to torch them for a career high 448 passing yards. Clearly the Browns don't have the weapons outside like Atlanta (pending Josh Gordon's reinstatement), but still, you're playing with fire with the Saints on the road.

A long way of saying this:

So now what? Loud and clear: You're crazy if you don't take the Denver Broncos this week.

Who knows if they'll cover that mammoth 13 point spread over the Kansas City Chiefs -- you just have to survive and advance.

Injuries have added to the Chief's woes: Pro Bowl linebacker Derrick Johnson tore his achilles and will miss the remainder of the season and defensive end Mike DeVito suffered the same fate. Both Right tackle Jeff Allen (elbow) and linebacker Tamba Hali (ankle and knee) are banged up too.

This team just got wrecked at home by the Titans and they're going to march into Mile High Stadium and spank the Broncos? I don't think so. It could be a bloodbath if Andy Reid slips into another afternoon coma and forgets he has Jamaal Charles (seven carries, four targets last week) at his disposal.

A lot of folks are taking the Packers, too, favored by 8.5 over the Jets at Lambeau. That isn't a terrible idea but Denver is the better pick. Stop what you're doing, step away from the Saints, and dive into the pool with the Broncos like Chip Kelly.

(This is a pick against the spread -- not survivor.)

Initially I thought the Vikings (+3) would be a spicy pick at home against the New England Patriots, then I thought about it more, peeked at the Cowboys (+3.5) at the Titans, laughed hysterically, came back to Vikings-Patriots, and realized this:

I looked at the Jets (+8.5) at Green Bay, the Bears (+7) at San Francisco and the Rams (+5.5) at Tampa Bay until I came back to the team that I gave a virtual tongue bath earlier in this column: The Brownies!

The Saints just do NOT deserve nearly a touchdown on the road based on what we've seen and what we know.

I will feel a lot better about this Sunday if tight end Jordan Cameron returns to practice soon. Nevertheless, give me the home dog at the Dawg Pound led by the ultimate underdog, Brian Hoyer.

The pick is Cleveland +6.5.

Last week's pick: Tennessee Titans +3.5 covered at Minnesota (1-0 season).

I just can't keep my eye off Minnesota. With a rebuilt offensive line, the Dolphins absolutely gashed the Patriots last week with Knowshon Moreno and Lamar Miller for a combined 193 yards on 35 carries, and that's not inflated -- neither had a carry for longer than 15 yards. (Note: if you need a quick explainer on a "teaser," go here.)

The Vikings have an effective offensive line and a guy named Adrian Peterson, whom the Rams reasonably contained in Week 1, but their front seven is better than the Patriots'. Sure Matt Cassel is no Tom Brady but they just need to put the ball in Cordarrelle Patterson's hands and good things will happen. Patterson only needs to bribe Cassel with some more cookies and he may get more targets.

The Patriots (2-6 ATS on the road in 2013) uncharacteristically squandered a 10-point second half against Miami and allowed four sacks last week. I think they bounce back but don't see them blowing the Vikings out. I'm not convinced enough to make them the underdog pick but I like them getting the six-pack at +9.

Who to pair them with? I'm going to flip the script on the Chargers, who were part of last week's teaser. They're getting 6 points at home to the terrifying Seahawks; that line teased makes the game a pick 'em. In other words, will the Seahawks beat the Chargers in San Diego?

If you saw the Seahawks undress the Packers in their opener last Thursday, I think you'll say yes. They look every bit as good as they did when they bludgeoned the Broncos in the Super Bowl. The offensive line play was solid, Percy Harvin is healthy and makes a matchup nightmare for every defense. The Packers didn't even have the guts to throw Richard Sherman's way!

The Chargers also just lost center and leader Nick Hardwick for the season with a neck injury. Phillip Rivers has spent over eight seasons looking at Hardwick's buttocks and it won't be a seamless adjustment for Rivers or the rest of the line with converted guard Rich Ohrnberger sliding into the center spot.

I think we're a week away from the Seahawks playing a string of games in which they're at least a touchdown or double-digit favorite.

Pick is: Vikings +9, Seahawks PK

Last week's pick: Chargers +9, Bengals +6 covered. (1-0 season).

In which I try to highlight some non-obvious plays.

Start: Shonn Greene (Titans, RB) -- He's owned in only 39% of FOX fantasy leagues only about 11% of owners are starting him. Teammate Bishop Sankey came off draft boards at about 72 overall, and maybe the Titans are easing him in, but for now it looks like Greene (15 carries for 71 yards against the Chiefs in Week 1) may get the bulk of the carries against a very uninspiring Dallas defense.

Sit: Joique Bell (Lions, RB) -- Sit him on the condition that you have a better option, like, say Shonn Greene. Reggie Bush is the more elusive of Detroit's backfield committee, Bell the "thunder." Bell has soft hands too but the Panthers have a formidable front seven led by linebackers Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis and the unit is particularly unfriendly to running backs.

Start: Kelvin Benjamin (Panthers, WR) -- A popular rookie sleeper looks ready for prime time but only 23.4 percent of fantasy teams are starting him (he's owned in 78% of leagues). Time to plug and play. Derek Anderson targeted the 6' 5" Benjamin eight times at Tampa Bay and the rookie caught six for 92 yards and a score. The Panthers gets Cam Newton back this week and may be inclined to actually take some deep shots this year with such a huge target on the outside. I see an owner in one of my leagues starting him over Kendall Wright and Michael Crabtree and it's a good call.

arolina Panthers wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin (13) makes a catch in the end zone for a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium.

Sit: Victor Cruz (Giants, WR) -- He's the only proven wideout the Giants have right now, and that's not a good thing. Cruz has called for more looks and he may get them, only he'll have Cardinals well-compensated corner Patrick Peterson breathing down his neck, and that's not a good thing.

On a personal note...

When the wife hits the road for work, my bulldog and I are left to fend for ourselves. Fortunately for Chief, he's domesticated and just gets the same dry food he normally does, but for me it's pretty disastrous if the kitchen isn't already stocked.

No one is stopping me from running to the deli, which is normally what I'll do, but last night I was very hungry and slightly lazy and tried to improvise. The result was horrible. The meal: one grilled cheese sandwich with only partially melted Harvarti cheese, plus two bites from a frozen fish stick while the sandwich was heating in the toaster. This meal proved highly disappointing and and unfilling, so I added some Eggo waffles that I microwaved, topped with a smattering of butter. They were mushy and I hated myself while I ate them and especially afterwards. As always, patience is a virtue.

Good luck this week!

Question, comment? E-mail me: basmiley [at] gmail [dot] com