The idea wasn't to bring in Marco Gonzales in the top of the fifth. Adam Wainwright is the Cardinals' ace, and when you've got your ace going in the playoffs, you expect him to be able to mop up a good number of innings. Wainwright struggled again on Saturday, and you don't even need to go that in-depth to be able to see it -- he was yanked in the fifth. He needed 98 pitches to get there, and he walked three guys against two strikeouts. The Giants knocked another six hits, so it would appear that Wainwright certainly wasn't himself.
And he wasn't. He spent the lead-up to this game downplaying the situation with his elbow, and maybe his elbow really is all right, but for the second start in a row, Wainwright was off. Which has to make the Cardinals wonder if they'll ever see their ace pitch like an ace again the rest of October. Wainwright, by certain indications, was better than he was against the Dodgers, but he still wasn't up to his standard.
Let's consider, again, Wainwright's hard stuff, including his fastballs and cutters. I've imagined a little box, containing the bottom half of the strike zone, more or less, and stretching just beyond the lateral edges. Here are Wainwright's rates of hard pitches within that box:
Season: 31%
NLDS: 17%
NLCS: 25%
Alternatively, here are Wainwright's rates of hard pitches at least 2.5 feet off the ground at the front of the plate:
Season: 47%
NLDS: 70%
NLCS: 57%
Wainwright was missing up again, if less than a week ago, and when he wasn't missing up, he was frequently seen missing down or over the plate. Basically, for two starts in a row, Wainwright hasn't had his fastball command, and though he's known for his curve, a secondary pitch is nothing without a good primary pitch. The hard stuff hasn't been there for Wainwright, so the results haven't been there for Wainwright. Rather, the results have been there for Wainwright's opponents.
You want to blame simple fatigue, but then in Wainwright's last four starts of the regular season, he threw a remarkable 71% strikes, with four walks to go against 26 whiffs. So he was off until he was on until he was off again. Wainwright probably doesn't want to hear any more questions about his elbow, but you don't silence those questions with words. You can only silence them with good pitching.
