Not that long ago, it seemed like there were a top-five, clear-cut top five teams in the ACC, while the mid-tier teams were fighting it out for a potential NCAA Tournament bid, stumbling all over themselves along the way.
Well, that all might still be true. But the mid-tier teams, if nothing else, are going to provide plenty of suspense down the stretch -- and there might just be a shakeup at the top by the time the ACC regular season concludes in two weeks.
It wasn't that long ago when the ACC regular-season race seemed merely academic. Virginia (12-1) hadn't lost a game, and Duke (11-3) already had two losses. Easy. Then Duke pulled off a last-minute upset at Virginia, and the Cavaliers lost Justin Anderson for the regular season. Nothing seemed quite so simple after that.
Virginia still sits at 12-1 in the league and everyone else has at least three losses, but the Cavaliers won't have an easy final four games: at Wake Forest (a tricky place to play for many), home against Virginia Tech, at Syracuse and at Louisville. Duke would need Virginia to stumble twice, but against a schedule like that, it's far from impossible. Particularly without Anderson.
Duke has the tiebreaker against Virginia by virtue of the head-to-head win in Charlottesville in the teams' only meeting this year. For this scenario to matter, Duke would have to win out. The Blue Devils are at Virginia Tech before hosting Syracuse and Wake Forest -- but that trip to North Carolina could prove problematic, if the first meeting last week was any indication.
Notre Dame (12-3) is not likely going to be caught by either North Carolina or Louisville. The Irish have just three ACC games left, hosting Syracuse and Clemson and taking a trip to Louisville. Even if Louisville were to get the head-to-head advantage, they'd need Notre Dame to lose at least one more game and to win out themselves. North Carolina lost to Notre Dame, so that's moot. Both would need Notre Dame to lose out to have a shot, and that seems unlikely at best.
So in some order, Virginia, Duke and Notre Dame will be the top three seeds in the ACC Tournament.
The question then becomes...
The No. 4 seed is a prime spot, because it gives one team a double-bye and the one who falls to No. 5 won't get that. In all likelihood, that's going to come down to North Carolina (9-5) and Louisville (9-5).
The two teams split their two meetings this year, so that eliminates head-to-head as a potential tiebreaker. Basically, it's going to come down to whether or not Louisville or North Carolina can get a win over a team ranked higher than them in the standings before the end of the season (should the two end up tied).
North Carolina is 0-3 against the teams in the top three right now, while Louisville is 0-2. North Carolina has one more game remaining against the top three teams (hosting Duke in the regular-season finale), while Louisville has two more games (hosting Notre Dame and Virginia in the final two games). If Louisville and North Carolina both win out, then, Louisville will be the No. 4 seed by virtue of having more wins against the top than North Carolina.
But neither team has room to mess around, really. Louisville has trips to Georgia Tech and Florida State remaining before hosting Notre Dame and Virginia in the final two games of the regular season. North Carolina hosts NC State before traveling to Miami (a tricky game) and Georgia Tech, then hosting Duke to end the season. No gimmes in there, to be sure, but none the Tar Heels can't win, either.
It's actually kind of worked out where the teams seem as if they'll finish more or less according to how good they actually are, at least in that top 5. Notre Dame, Duke and Virginia have been the most consistent teams in the league this year, while North Carolina and Louisville have both been up and down. It will be a tough battle going down the stretch to see who sneaks into that top 4.
In some order, Boston College (1-12), Virginia Tech (2-12), Georgia Tech (3-12) and Wake Forest (4-10) are going to finish 12-15 in the league, meaning they'll be slotted in the 11-14 spots in the ACC Tournament.
That group will be the only group of teams that play on the Tournament's opening day (Tuesday). All teams seeded 10 and higher will escape having to play that day.
There's a big cluster in the middle right now where Florida State (6-7), Clemson (7-8), NC State (7-7), Miami (7-7) and Pittsburgh (7-7) each have 6-7 wins. Those teams will fall somewhere between 6-10 in the standings. North Carolina and Louisville each have a two-game lead on all of them, and it's unlikely any of those five teams will catch them.
Interestingly enough, it's not the worst thing in the world to be a 3/4 seed instead of a 1/2 -- a 3 or 4 seed could (if an upset happens) be facing a team that has been playing since Tuesday. That can't happen to the No. 1 or No. 2 seed on quarterfinal Thursday. Of course, the No. 1 or No. 2 seed's toughest possible opponent is an 8-seed or a 7-seed, respectively, so that's the tradeoff.
But that's not relevant to this group anyway.
This is still a group of teams that desperately needs wins -- big-time wins -- over good opponents. NC State, Miami and Pittsburgh in particular are at least technically still alive for the NCAA Tournament in terms of an at-large berth. NC State is in the best shape, particularly with two marquee wins (over Duke and at Louisville).
NC State can afford maybe one more loss (at North Carolina) before the ACC Tournament with room to breathe, but the WOlfpack can't afford to lose at Boston College or at Clemson, or even at home against Syracuse to close the regular season.
Pittsburgh's chances to win a big-time game don't really exist in their remaining games, but they need to keep winning and hope they get a chance for a good ACC Tournament win or two. Pitt hosts Boston College, is at Wake, hosts Miami (which could be a de facto elimination game) and goes to FSU.
Miami very nearly got its second marquee win (at Louisville), but couldn't. Now, they'll have to win out, which would include beating North Carolina at home on this coming Saturday. And like Pitt, they'll probably have to hope for an ACC Tournament win or two.
Not a huge difference between the fate of the 6-10 seeds, but they'll be jockeying for position for the sake of their own NCAA Tournament resumes if nothing else.
