Five things to watch for in the Week 16 Sunday afternoon matchup when the Green Bay Packers (10-4) face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-12) at Raymond James Stadium:
1. Aaron Rodgers' follow-up to a rare bad performance
Aaron Rodgers is coming off one of the worst games -- if not the worst game -- of his career. Rodgers threw more incompletions, had the fewest passing yards per attempt and the lowest passer rating that he's ever had. This coming from a player who, despite those numbers in Buffalo last weekend, is still the odds-on favorite to be the NFL's Most Valuable Player for a second time.
"He's a great quarterback," Randall Cobb said. "Michael Jordan missed shots, Kobe Bryant has missed shots. I think Kobe Bryant leads the league in missed shots. So, it doesn't matter. . . . He hasn't changed. He's the same guy. Everybody wants to point the finger at him right now, but let's see what happens next week."
More than likely what will happen is Rodgers will respond with a great game. Rodgers has a history of responding to a below-average game with one of his best performances. Looking at this season, when Rodgers had only 162 passing yards in a Week 3 loss at Detroit, he bounced back with a four-touchdown, zero-interception game that included a 151.2 passer rating in a win at Chicago. When Rodgers threw two interceptions in a Week 8 loss at New Orleans, he came back with six touchdowns, zero interceptions and a 145.8 passer rating while leading the Packers' offense to a season-high 55 points.
Green Bay depends on Rodgers to play well. The four Packers losses this season have been Rodgers' four lowest passer-rating games. If Rodgers' track record continues, he could be in store for a big day Sunday in Tampa.
2. Facing a team with 'nothing to lose'
Mike McCarthy said it first. "(The Buccaneers) have nothing to lose. So whether it's going for it on fourth down or doing different things, we have to be ready for everything."
Then Rodgers said it. "We're playing a team that has nothing to lose. They're out of the playoffs. They've got two games left and they're trying to be the spoiler."
A clear theme this week inside Lambeau Field headquarters is to expect the unexpected from Sunday's opponent. A team with nothing to lose can be a dangerous opponent to deal with. Tampa Bay's players are less than two weeks away from their offseason, and it would be safe to assume that they'd love to pick up a win over Green Bay. In doing so, the Buccaneers would play a major role in trying to disrupt the Packers' plan of making it to the playoffs. After all, a loss in Tampa followed by a Week 17 loss to the Lions would almost certainly mean no postseason football for Green Bay.
Fortunately for the Packers, when the team with nothing to lose is a Buccaneers team with very little going for it, it shouldn't matter what their mindset is.
Tampa Bay is 29th in the NFL in rushing yards, 22nd in passing yards, 24th in pass defense and 19th in run defense. It doesn't get any better when looking at scoring, where the Buccaneers rank 26th in points allowed and 27th in points scored. Let's keep going, shall we? They are 30th in takeaway differential at minus-10, 26th in offensive conversions on third down and 25th in third-down defense. Tampa Bay has also committed the fourth-most penalties in the league.
Those 10 major statistical categories should have made it obvious, but regardless of the possible "nothing to lose" mentality, there's not much evidence through 14 games this season that the Buccaneers should have a chance in this game.
3. Improved tackling
The Packers missed 12 tackles in the loss to the Bills. Rather than multiple stops behind the line of scrimmage, Buffalo was able to break away and turn negative plays into positive yards.
"Well, when you've got clean shots on people, a couple times you saw one where we had two guys really got a nice hit and knocked the guy off, (then) he came out the other side on about a 12-yard gain," defensive coordinator Dom Capers said. "You don't want to do that when you've got free shots. You've got to find a way to get him wrapped up and then get the pursuit coming so if the first guy doesn't get him down, at least you get the second or third guy there to get him down."
In three of Green Bay's four losses this season, tackling has been an issue. The Packers missed 18 tackles Week 1 in Seattle and 13 tackles Week 8 in New Orleans. The one exception was Week 3 in Detroit with six missed tackles, a game that Green Bay's defense played well enough in to deserve a win. The only game that the Packers won this year when missing double-digit tackles was Week 10 against the Bears, but many of those misses came when the score was well out of hand.
Capers identified missed tackles as the most important area for his defense to get cleaned up before January football begins.
4. Mike Evans/Vincent Jackson WR duo
For an offense that has struggled as much as Tampa Bay's has, the Buccaneers have two significant weapons at wide receiver that any opposing defense has to key in on.
Rookie Mike Evans has 948 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns, numbers that are even more impressive when considering he had that production while working with two quarterbacks (Josh McCown and Mike Glennon) who have a combined passer rating of just 77.0. That's another statistic in which Tampa Bay ranks near the back of the league, as only five teams have a lower passer rating. Evans currently has the second-best odds of being named the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year, trailing only Odell Beckham. At 6-foot-5 and 231 pounds, Evans can be a nightmare for cornerbacks like what the Packers have in Sam Shields and Tramon Williams, both of whom give up six inches and 50 pounds. It's a scary thought for the rest of the league that Evans just turned 21 years old in August.
It doesn't get any easier opposite Evans with veteran receiver Vincent Jackson. With nearly the identical height and weight of Evans, Jackson's size and 10 years of NFL experience has led to him contributing 931 receiving yards this season. Assuming Jackson finds a way to come up with at least 69 yards in the final two games, it will be his sixth 1,000-yard season over the past seven years.
Green Bay had been doing well against top receivers this season, but then Julio Jones exploded for 259 receiving yards in Week 14. The Packers contained Buffalo's Sammy Watkins to one catch for 28 yards last weekend, but Kyle Orton wasn't doing the Bills' passing game any favors. With Green Bay one week away from a showdown against superstar wide receiver Calvin Johnson in a game that will decide the division, this will be a good test against Evans and Jackson. Unlike when Jones had his career day two weeks ago, the Packers won't have Davon House to call on off the bench (he's been ruled out with a scapula injury) if Shields or Williams struggle.
5. Special teams
Everything that happens on special teams Sunday will be under a microscope. Green Bay has had six kicks blocked this season (two field-goal attempts, two extra points, two punts), is coming off a game in which a punt return for a touchdown was allowed and has yet to get any big plays out of the kick-return game.
It's possible that Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang could return to the protection units. It was when Sitton and Lang both suffered injuries in Week 8 that the Packers decided to not play their terrific offensive guard tandem on special teams. Sitton and Lang are still dealing with their respective injuries, with McCarthy describing it as "risk assessment" in whether to re-insert those two back into protection in the kicking game.
It might not be until the playoffs, but don't be surprised if special teams captain Randall Cobb is returning kickoffs to try to boost a unit that ranks 16th in average starting field position.
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