Wanted: Runs.
When needed: Immediately.
The Tampa Bay Rays' bats were more bust than boom last season. They produced just 612 runs. They beat out the Cincinnati Reds, Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres and ... no one else in the category. They must do more in 2015.
Will it happen?
Many things must go right. John Jaso must be dynamite against right-handed pitching. Rene Rivera must build on momentum gained from a career year at the plate last season. Evan Longoria must be more consistent. Desmond Jennings must be a greater stolen-base threat. James Loney must knock in those coveted RBI when the chances present themselves.
They must overcome absences as well. Ben Zobrist's trade to the Oakland Athletics will be felt. Wil Myers struggled throughout most of last season, but losing his potential for pop by sending him to San Diego is somewhat of a blow.
However it happens, with help from whoever is prepared to meet the challenge, Tampa Bay must do more damage on the scoreboard with its new-look lineup.
Here's how the Rays' lineup breaks down (with last year's stats in parentheses).
PROJECTED LINEUP
DH John Jaso (.264, 9 HR, 40 RBI) -- He returns to the Rays after a stint with them in 2008 and from 2010 to 2011. Jaso had concussion problems the past two years in Oakland, but Tampa Bay anticipates him being a strong answer against right-handed pitchers, who allow a .272 batting average, a .368 on-base percentage and a .424 slugging percentage against him.
RF Steven Souza Jr. (.130, 2 HR, 2 RBI) -- Is he ready to become a productive everyday player in the majors? The Rays hope so. With Myers traded to the Padres, Souza will be given a chance to show his ability after escaping the Washington Nationals' outfield logjam. He hit .350 with 25 doubles, 18 home runs, 75 RBI, 26 stolen bases and a .432 on-base percentage with Triple-A Syracuse last year. But he has just 23 at-bats in the majors, all from last season.
SS Asdrubal Cabrera (.241, 14 HR, 61 RBI) -- The two-time All-Star was named the Rays' primary shortstop in spring training, after expressing his preference to be slotted at the position. Some say he has declining range at age 29, so he'll try to quiet those critics. Last year, he split time between the Nationals and Cleveland Indians before Tampa Bay signed him as a free agent in January. He's a career .268 hitter with 87 home runs, 451 RBI and a .330 on-base percentage.
3B Evan Longoria (.253, 22 HR, 91 RBI) -- With Zobrist gone to Oakland, he's the clear voice of the clubhouse among Rays position players. Longoria will try to avoid lengthy dry spells at the plate like the ones experienced last year -- he hit .237 in May and .222 in July -- because Tampa Bay will need a more consistent season from him to stay competitive. Cracking more than 30 home runs would be a positive development.
1B James Loney (.290, 9 HR, 69 RBI) -- He's one of the Rays' most dependable gloves in the infield, and he has lived a renaissance of sorts at the plate since joining Tampa Bay before the 2013 season. His RBI total from the past two years -- he had 75 in 2013 -- represents his best run since the 268 combined RBI from 2008 to 2010 with the Los Angeles Dodgers. He must represent the bulk of production within this lineup, along with Longoria and Cabrera.
LF Desmond Jennings (.244, 10 HR, 36 RBI) -- He'll be moved out of the leadoff spot, which should ease the burden on him. His batting average last season was his worst with the Rays in years he has had more than 21 at-bats, and his .697 OPS was his lowest total since posting a .625 in 17 games in 2010. He also had just 15 stolen bases last year, his fewest of the past four seasons.
CF Kevin Kiermaier (.263, 10 HR, 35 RBI) -- He'll serve as the Rays' primary center fielder, with Jennings appearing in center on days Kiermaier doesn't play. Last year, Kiermaier made an impression in right with his hustle and highlight-reel catches, but he should strive for improvement at the plate. After hitting a season-best .316 in June last season, he dipped to .282 in July, .190 in August and .238 in September.
2B Logan Forsythe (.223, 6 HR, 26 RBI) -- He'll serve as the Rays' primary second baseman until Nick Franklin returns from a strained left oblique. When Franklin comes back, a platoon situation at the position is likely. More consistent play should help Forsythe at the plate, where he struggled at times last year, especially early.
C Rene Rivera (.252, 11 HR, 44 RBI) -- He could become the most significant player acquisition of the offseason. If Rivera stays healthy, he'll be an upgrade over what Ryan Hanigan and Jose Molina offered behind the plate last season. He made a career-high 85 starts last year with the Padres and set career marks in hits (74), doubles (18), home runs, RBI, batting average, on-base percentage (.319) and slugging percentage (.432).
PROJECTED BENCH
INF Tim Beckham (no major-league stats last year) -- The former No. 1 overall pick returns after missing last season with a torn ACL in his right knee. Beckham should be given a chance to begin the season in a reserve role within the infield with Franklin out, likely at second base. He was given a look at shortstop in the spring before Cabrera was named the starter.
2B Nick Franklin (.160, 1 HR, 6 RBI) -- He'll begin the season on the disabled list, but Franklin will see time at second base with Forsythe when he comes back. The oblique injury, which was sustained March 23, is projected to keep Franklin out anywhere from four to eight weeks.
C Bobby Wilson (.250, 0 HR, 0 RBI) -- Although he wasn't on the Rays' 40-man roster throughout most of spring training, Wilson beat out Curt Casali for the backup catcher job to earn a spot on the Opening Day roster. Wilson has spent parts of six seasons in the majors with the Arizona Diamondbacks (2014) and Los Angeles Angels (2008 to 2012). He has hit .209 in 193 major-league games.
OF Brandon Guyer (.266, 3 HR, 26 RBI) -- His most significant time in the majors came last year, when he had a season-high 51 starts in left field. Guyer has had a lengthy history of injuries, so staying healthy should be a goal for him.
OF/DH David DeJesus (.248, 6 HR, 19 RBI) -- He doesn't fit anywhere barring a significant injury to an outfielder. DeJesus should be a prime candidate to be traded.
BIGGEST STRENGTH
The Rays are banking a number of things to work out as planned: That Jaso will be a productive hitter, especially against right-handed pitching; that Souza will mature into a well-rounded player and offer more than Myers did in an injury-riddled 2014 campaign; and that Longoria, Cabrera and Loney will serve as engines to drive the entire lineup to more than last year's anemic output. If all those work out, the Rays may produce enough to be competitive. Likely, where the Longoria/Cabrera/Loney combination leads, Tampa Bay will follow.
BIGGEST QUESTION
Will the runs come? Despite all the offseason change, it's unclear if the Rays did enough to solve their production woes from a year ago. It's fair to say that the losses of Zobrist and Myers may create a larger vacuum than what the additions of Jaso, Souza and Cabrera may fill. If players such as Longoria, Loney and Jennings raise their output after underperforming at times last year, then Tampa Bay can be in decent shape. But those are many "ifs" to consider.
MOST IMPORTANT PIECE OF LINEUP
Cabrera, Longoria and Loney should be the lineup's heart. Motivation shouldn't be in short supply for Longoria, whose home-run total last season match his fewest during years in which he has appeared in more than 74 games. His OPS dropped from .841 in 2013 to .724 last year, and his WAR declined from 6.3 to 3.4. He was more consistent toward the end of 2014, but a more complete season is needed from him. Meanwhile, Loney's batting average paced the Rays last season, and his RBI total was second on the team to Longoria. Cabrera, the Rays' marquee free-agent signing, has just 14 home runs in each of the past two seasons. His production has declined from his 25 home run, 92 RBI year in 2011, but he has posted at least 61 RBI in each of the past three seasons.
FINAL THOUGHT
The Rays are built on pitching and defense for a reason. It's difficult to see the lineup as constructed being much of an upgrade from the one that struggled to produce in the 77-win season last year. This much is clear: The Rays need their biggest bats to have huge years, and their would-be breakout players must become stars.
You can follow Andrew Astleford on Twitter @aastleford or email him at aastleford@gmail.com.
