NHL Expansion Draft: Montreal Canadiens Expansion Protection Strategy
The Montreal Canadiens are the latest team to get their individual NHL Expansion Draft strategy explained. Check out division rival Florida's here.
The Montreal Canadiens will be exploring their NHL Expansion Draft strategy all throughout this month. They've been doing it probably since last June.
NHL Expansion Draft
Montreal Canadiens head coach Claude Julien watches play from behind the bench (Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports)
Now, I'll help understand what the Canadiens might (and should) do with their NHL expansion draft protection slots. There's not a ton of hard decisions for Montreal.
Still, it will be interesting to see how Montreal protects, as they fully transition from Michel Therrien's system to Claude Julien. Julien was hired in February of this year but didn't have a full season to make his impact. Now the team is his, and he will be fully involved in protection and the NHL Expansion Draft.
Now the team is his, and he will be fully involved in protection and the NHL Expansion Draft. Will he protect physical guys like Andrew Shaw or skill guys like Paul Byron?
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Montreal Canadiens forward Max Pacioretty (67) during the third period (Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports)
M is for Man Advantage which relies on Forwards
Applicable Forwards: Tomas Plekanec, Max Pacioretty, Andrew Shaw, Brendan Gallagher, Torrey Mitchell, Paul Byron, Phillip Danault, Daniel Carr, Chris Terry, Jacob De La Rose, Alexander Radulov, Alex Galchenyuk
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Guaranteed: Max Pacioretty, Brendan Gallagher, Phillip Danault, Alexander Radulov
I believe a lot of forwards on this Canadiens roster are guaranteed protection spots in this NHL Expansion Draft. Including an unrestricted free agent and a guy who was hurt a few times this season.
Let's start with Montreal's captain, Max Pacioretty. Patches is 28 and on a manageable contract until 2019. After that, he's likely to be re-signed.
He's scored 30 or more goals the last four seasons. The last season he didn't was the lockout shortened one.
Even before that, he was putting up 30. Pacioretty is quietly one of the best goal scorers in the NHL.
Brendan Gallagher is the 25-year-old home-grown pest for the Montreal Canadiens. He's developed a history of injuries over the last few years, but he remains a constant net-front threat.
He scored 10 goals in 64 games last season. He remains a fan favorite in Montreal, so he's unlikely to be moved.
Danault and Radulov
Phillip Danault is a dynamic young center for the Canadiens. He's making under a million next year and after will be a restricted free agent. His full season last year included time at first line center.
He will likely line up at a top 6 position to start the season. He's young and skilled and the Canadiens need more of that.
Alexander Radulov is currently an unrestricted free agent, but he came to Montreal for a reason. He'll likely stay in Montreal for more money next year, as he proved himself to be an incredibly valuable asset, even at 30.
He was third on the team in goals and second in scoring, and he's a dynamite right wing for the Canadiens, who have a need there. Even if he's still a free agent come NHL expansion draft time, he'll be safe.
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Highly Likely: Andrew Shaw, Paul Byron
Alright, this first one has to do with some of my own biases, but I will back it up with fact.
Shaw became my favorite player as a Blackhawk, though he's since been surpassed.
Now, to back that up. He posted 55.1 Corsi% in 5-on-5 situations this season.
That's above Montreal's average Corsi last season by nearly 4%. That's without the power play.
And he started most of his shifts in the defensive zone. That means he found ways to help get the puck back and converted it into scoring chances.
Shaw is more valuable than just a 3rd line grinder. His 29 points in 68 games are just a sign of things to come.
Paul Byron
Paul Byron was second on the team in goal scoring last year. The Canadiens coaching staff was able to instruct him on how to finish the multitude of breakaways Byron is able to get, and it made him a different player.
He had 43 points in 81 games, and he found a way to add assists. Byron actually had nearly as many assists as he had goals. He had 6 game-winning goals for Montreal, as well as one short-handed. Again, goal scorer extraordinaire for the Canadiens.
Maybe: Alex Galchenyuk
Galchenyuk seems to have haters amongst Montreal fans. Still, the center is a great young player. He's like Phillip Danault if everybody in Montreal thought Danault developed wrong. Last season, Galchenyuk had 30 goals. He had 44 points this season.
He's a restricted free agent this year, and he'll need to get a pay raise. But he's a player who should slot into the top 6 as well. There are other teams that would give anything for a player like Galchenyuk.
Which means the Canadiens may be able to find a return for him if they want to trade him despite his potential.
NHL Expansion Draft
Florida Panthers left wing Jonathan Huberdeau (11) plays the puck against Montreal Canadiens right wing Alexander Radulov (47) and defenseman Jeff Petry (26) (Jean-Yves Ahern-USA TODAY Sports)
C is for Containment
Applicable Defenseman: Shea Weber, Jeff Petry, Alexei Emelin, Brandon Davidson, Jordie Benn, Zach Redmond, Nathan Beaulieu, Nikita Nesterov, Andrei Markov
NMC: Jeff Petry
Petry had the third most points out of Montreal defensemen. Shea Weber, who was acquired for that very reason, had the most followed by Andrei Markov, a low-key offensive defenseman legend.
Markov's points-per-game is higher than both Duncan Keith and Brent Burns's, by the way. Petry's getting paid 5.5 until 2021 and is already 29. But his possession numbers are strong and he's a defenseman that's capable in both zones, starting most of his shifts in the defensive.
Guaranteed: Shea Weber
Montreal wanted Weber bad enough to send PK Subban to Nashville. The Canadiens believe he gives them a bigger shot at success. They're not going to give him up for free.
Weber led all defensemen in scoring on this Montreal roster and had nearly as many goals as Radulov.
He's strong on both ends of the ice, and he's able to play on both the penalty kill and power play. That's what Montreal needs out of him, they just gotta give him more around him.
Maybe: Alexei Emelin
This is between Emelin and Nathan Beaulieu. They're both lacking, Emelin offensively and Beaulieu defensively. They have plenty of offense in Weber and Petry, and they need people able to protect Carey Price.
That's why the older Emelin stays for me. He starts 56% of his shifts in the defensive zone, so his role is clearly defined. Emelin also played more minutes than Beaulieu, and that's also purposeful.
NHL Expansion Draft
Montreal Canadiens goalie Carey Price (31) deflects the puck (Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports)
CP is for Care Package
Applicable Goaltenders: Carey Price, Al Montoya
NMC/Guaranteed/Not Leaving Unless He Says So: Carey Price
Carey Price has a Vezina and a Hart. He's the reason the Canadiens keep making the playoffs, as shown by last season's collapse. He's a Vezina finalist again this season.
Price is the greatest goaltender in the NHL right now. Yes, Bobrovsky will have two Vezinas to his one, but answer me this.
Next year, who would you rather have? Carey Price or Sergei Bobrovsky? The answer, if you're aware of numbers, potential, and Price's ability to carry a team, is Price.
He's the Sidney Crosby of the goaltending position. Price is one season away from free agency. That's scary for Montreal. But it's also motivation to surround him with better talent. Vegas's biggest dream is Montreal leaves him open in the NHL Expansion Draft.
Exempt List:
Nikita Scherbak, Michael McCarron, Artturi Lehkonen, Andreas Martinsen, Jakub Jerabek, Mikhail Sergachev, Noah Juulsen, Charlie Lindgren.
NHL Expansion Draft
Edmonton Oilers forward Connor McDavid (97) comes in on Montreal Canadiens defensemen Nathan Beaulieu (28) during the first period (Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports)
Veritable Golden Knight
Available Players: Tomas Plekanec, Torrey Mitchell, Daniel Carr, Chris Terry, Brandon Davidson, Nathan Beaulieu, Jordie Benn, Nikita Nesterov, Zach Redmond, Al Montoya
The Canadiens fans wish the Golden Knights would take Tomas Plekanec off their hands in this NHL Expansion Draft. That's not going to happen. He's a 34-year-old third line center making 6 million. Good luck dealing with that contract next season, Montreal.
No, this competition is between Nathan Beaulieu and Beaulieu, Nathan. The Golden Knights are taking Nathan Beaulieu. There's nothing else there in Montreal. The Knights won't need a 32-year-old career backup in net when they're snatching up Antti Raanta and Philip Grubauer.
Daniel Carr is the best young forward in this available group. That's with two seasons of 9 points. There's a reason Montreal is protecting an unrestricted free agent.
