Colorado Avalanche: Jared Bednar Cause for Cautious Optimism
New Colorado Avalanche Head Coach Jared Bednar promises to breath new life into the franchise, which Avs fans should be cautiously optimistic about.
I’d be lying if I said Jared Bednar was my first choice for head coach of the Colorado Avalanche, but he was my second one! While Dineen’s NHL experience and tutelage under Joel Quenneville would have been nice, Bednar’s work ethic, persistence, and ability to adapt to whichever league he’s in will be a welcome change behind the bench. So far, Bednar has impressed me in preaching an aggressive style in both ends. He has also paid lip service to the use of analytics, which are kind of my jam. Overall, I feel we have many reasons for optimism this season, but that optimism is still tempered with some caution.
Reasons for optimism
First and foremost, Bednar’s aggressive style should be hugely beneficial for the team, especially for players like Tyson Barrie. Barrie, not exactly a big-bodied shot blocker, never excelled in Roy’s collapsing style. With an emphasis on aggression, Barrie can use his renowned speed to force turnovers, move the puck up ice, and utilize his skills in the offensive zone. Bednar’s style should also benefit the goalies. Facing fewer shots and shot attempts will allow them to play with more poise, rather than constantly making highlight-reel saves to bail out the defense or stop an impossible rebound. As such, Bednar’s style could really help Semyon Valamov get his confidence back, as well as reduce the risk of re-injuring his groin.
Mar 20, 2016; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Colorado Avalanche defenceman Tyson Barrie (4) is seen out on the ice during the pre-game warm-up as they took on the Edmonton Oilers at Rexall Place. Mandatory Credit: Walter Tychnowicz-USA TODAY Sports
The offense in general should also see a huge jump this year. An aggressive system that preaches speed is exactly what this team should be operating on. Add to that another year of development for the team’s young core, and there is reason to suspect that the offensive attack will be explosive this year. Finally, the Avs will likely excel due to the “first year bump” teams often experience under a new coach. We saw it under both Roy and Sacco, so the players will likely have a similar new fire lit under their butts. However, this unfortunately brings us to our reason for caution.
Reasons for Caution
Avs fans should be cautious about getting their hopes up because honestly, we’ve seen this before: a shiny new coach with a budding young team. While many of us initially saw Roy as a savior after the Sacco years, truth be told, they both had very similar tenures with the Avs. Both Sacco and Roy made the playoffs in their first year, both won the Jack Adams trophy, both saw first-round exits, and both saw the team collapse in the years that followed. The only difference is that Sacco didn’t quit, and coached a disastrous fourth year with the team.
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The “first year bump” may help Bednar quickly earn the trust of fans, but we must also remember to look at the information at the end of the season. In Roy’s first year, the team won the Central Division, but with an obscenely high PDO and ridiculously bad shot differential stats. I admit, I was among those who rejected the critics who said the Avs were “sure to regress”. I wanted Roy and the glory days to return, so I turned my back on numbers in favor of emotion. But the regression did occur, and it became evident that there was a systemic failure within the team. Therefore, it will be important for fans to keep an eye on analytics this year, regardless of the team’s record, in order to manage their expectations for the future. Next: Colorado Avalanche: Assessing Jared Bednar’s Training Camp Preparation
Conclusion
Based on what we know about Bednar, there’s a lot to be hopeful about. He’s a young couch with a proven record of success coaching professional hockey, and appears to be a fan of modern systems. His aggressive style should match up nicely with many Avalanche players’ speed, and help relieve the goalies of some pressure. However, we should all remember that the first year does not necessarily indicate the long-term success of a team, as we’ve seen in recent years.
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