Week 9 NFL picks against the spread recap with Jason McIntyre | WHAT DID YOU LEARN?
As an NFL junkie, I do it all — gambling, fantasy, confidence picks, survivor leagues and my personal favorite: Pick ‘em leagues. I got off to such a hot start in the pick ‘em league (72% through Week 5). I was feeling great ... but I knew that was unsustainable.
As we all know with football gambling, the market tends toward efficiency and the oddsmakers adjusted ... I didn’t. I fell out of the lead after two really bad weeks but had a resurgence back to the top — as I made adjustments this week.
Home teams went a staggering 11-0 ATS Sunday (excluding the London game, which really isn't home for anyone anyway). You knew the “road dogs” dominance would inevitably come crashing down.
Without a defense, you are not a bet-on team (just look at the 49ers)
The push (+6) here for the Bucs felt like a loss because Tampa had to be covering for at least 98% of this game. It’ll sound sacrilegious because Russell Wilson has been phenomenal (378 yards for 5 touchdowns vs. the Bucs) ... but there are still major questions for Seattle - especially defensively.
They gave up 418 yards to Tampa and 5.8 yards per pass. The Bucs were 4-for-4 in the red zone. Mike Evans (12 catches, 180 yards and one touchdown) was unstoppable. The Seahawks are 7-2 this year, but only 4-5 ATS. I think the call here is to fade Seattle in San Francisco next week.
I don't like to say I told you so, but ...
The No. 1 defense in football got shredded for 5.7 yards per play and a mind-blowing 210 yards rushing by Lamar Jackson. I don't know about you ... but I enjoyed almost every minute of it. The Patriots were down 17-0 and on the verge of getting blown out when the Ravens muffed a punt and let New England back in the game.
It was an all-around uncharacteristic performance from the Patriots — who had seven penalties, four of which gave Baltimore first downs. The Ravens were 4-for-4 in the red zone scoring touchdowns. Don't get too excited ... no sweeping conclusions drawn from this one. Just remember: It’s a week-to-week league, and New England has a bye before a meeting with the Eagles.
The Redskins are definitely not a bet-on team ... and neither are the Bills
The Bills were dominating 17-3 ... and then disappeared offensively before a 4th quarter drive got them the cover. Biggest takeaway: Buffalo’s run defense is troubling. Adrian Peterson rushed 18 times for 108 yards — but they’re still a bet-against team because the coaching staff doesn’t trust rookie quarterback Dwyane Haskins to throw downfield.
He went 15-for-22 for 144 yards, which is a paltry 4.5 yards per pass. At least he didn’t make any mistakes ... or the Redskins would have been blown out. The end is near for Frank Gore: 11 carries, 15 yards, and (twice at least) four of those carries were on short yards plays in which he didn’t deliver.
Don't forget: All your research doesn't take into account these players are only human
Okay, this one was a bad pick ... and I regretted after just one quarter. It’s difficult to quantify, or even explain in a space like this — but when we do our picks Wednesday, I keep my ears and eyes open to see if others are making picks similar to my own. This week, every radio show, podcast, TV show or internet article I read picked the Jaguars for many of the same reasons I outlined in the video: Familiarity with London, injuries to the Houston secondary and a close meeting earlier this season in Houston.
In fact, the line actually closed with Jacksonville the favorite! When the world is on one side, and Vegas needs the other … well, one side built casinos in the desert. Other results this week that applied here: Chargers 26, Packers 11.
I might be a masochist ... but the Browns are still a bet-on team
Where to begin? Should we start with 1-for-5 in the red zone? 4th and 1 and not having Nick Chubb on the field ... and then watching Baker Mayfield come up short on the sneak from the 5-yard line? Or perhaps the tackling on the 75-yard touchdown by rookie Noah Fant?
I just can’t get over the fact that the Browns were facing a quarterback who had never taken an NFL snap, and they let him throw two touchdown passes and move the ball easily — averaging 7.0 yards per pass. The Browns committed fewer penalties, didn’t turn the ball over, held the ball for 35:30 minutes ... and lost. The talent is there, but the execution is not. Potentially regrettable decision ... the schedule going forward is just too easy not to hold my nose and back the Browns again. Guess I'll find out if hindsight will be 20/20 here.