Top 10 Tua?
The nearly four-month sprint to the NFL Draft is almost over, and this week’s draft figures to be one of the wildest ever, from the presentation to the selections.
Teams haven’t been able to do in-person interviews since the Combine. Medical exams haven’t happened. I’ve got a few significant changes in the final mock draft, with Tua Tagovailoa falling out of the Top 10, and two fast-rising players entering the first round.
1. Cincinnati Bengals — Joe Burrow, QB, LSU (Previous pick: 1)
2019 season stats: 402-for-527 passing, 76.3% completion percentage, 5,671 passing yards, 60 TDs, 6 INTs
No funny business here: The Bengals aren’t trading the pick, they’re not taking another player, so they should get this pick in quickly and expedite the first round.
2. Washington Redskins — Chase Young, DE, Ohio State (2)
2019 season stats: 16.5 sacks, 46 total tackles, 7 forced fumbles, 3 passes defended
Ron Rivera knows what really built that Panthers team into a Super Bowl contender: A ferocious defense that was No. 2 in efficiency in 2015. Remember, they held Denver to 194 yards of offense in the Super Bowl, and 1-for-14 on 3rd downs … and lost. Young’s the best player in the draft - offense or defense.
3. Detroit Lions — Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State (3)
2019 season stats: 3 interceptions, 9 passes defended, 34 total tackles, 1 forced fumble
You can argue that if teams traded up for Jared Goff and Mitchell Trubisky and Carson Wentz, why not Justin Herbert or Tua Tagovailoa? I don’t see it here. GM Bob Quinn would love for more picks to try and save his job, but Okudah immediately helps a struggling secondary that lost its best cover corner in Darius Slay.
4. New York Giants — Tristan Wirfs, G, Iowa (10)
The Mekhi Becton failed drug test at the NFL Combine probably won’t hurt him that much, but Wirfs is increasingly sounding like the safest offensive lineman option in the draft. And given the chatter about the Giants potentially moving on from Nate Solder in the coming months, a lineman here feels like a lock.
5. Miami Dolphins — Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon (5)
2019 season stats: 286-for-428 passing, 66.8% completion percentage, 3,471 passing yards, 32 TDs, 6 INTs
Yes, there’s some concern about taking a 22-year old who grew up in Eugene, played college football there, and transplanting him to Miami. But a much bigger risk would be rolling the dice on Tua Tagovailoa.
6. Los Angeles Chargers — Mekhi Becton, OL, Louisville (4)
The Chargers traded Russell Okung, their left tackle in 2017 and 2018, because they didn’t want to have to pay him. Trent Scott and Trey Pimpkins can’t be the Week 1 starting tackles.
7. Carolina Panthers — Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson (9)
2019 season stats: 8.0 sacks, 3 INTs, 8 passes defended, 104 total tackles
This makes five of seven picks that are the same from the last mock draft. This will come down to Simmons or Derrick Brown, a foundational defensive chess piece for new coach Matt Rhule.
8. Arizona Cardinals — Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn (7)
2019 season stats: 4.0 sacks, 54 total tackles, 2 forced fumbles, 4 passes defended
Before the trade for DeAndre Hopkins, a receiver made sense here. But at some point the Cardinals are going to have to stop somebody, and finding help for the 27th rated pass defense can begin with interior pressure from Brown.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars — Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina (15)
2019 season stats: 6.0 sacks, 35 total tackeles, 2 fumbles recovered, 2 passes defended
Defensive end Josh Allen needs a running mate with Yannick Ngakoue on his way out the door and Calais Campbell gone. The Jaguars will be bad again in 2020, but at least their defensive line will have some promise.
10. Cleveland Browns — Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia (11)
The Browns are increasingly a candidate to trade down here, especially if Tua is still on the board. But there’s an obvious need on the line, with recent buzz that the Browns are enamored with Boise State OT Ezra Cleveland.
11. New York Jets — Jedrick Wills, OT Alabama (8)
Jets fans will clamor for a star receiver here, but in such a deep draft at that position, it’s not needed this early.
12. Las Vegas Raiders — Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama (6)
2019 season stats: 180-for-252 passing, 71.4% completion percentage, 2,840 passing yards, 33 TDs, 3 INTs
What better way to enter a new stadium and a new city than with a high-upside QB who can redshirt this year? Jon Gruden’s got the safety net of a lengthy contract. Gruden and GM Mike Mayock aren’t tied to Derek Carr; they just signed Marcus Mariota.
13. San Francisco 49ers (via Indianapolis Colts) — CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma (13)
2019 season stats: 62 receptions, 1,327 receiving yards, 14 receiving TDs
If you follow the gambling lines, Lamb has overtaken Jerry Jeudy as the favorite to be the first QB drafted. The 49ers have one of the best rosters in the NFL; they just don’t have a No. 1 WR. General manager John Lynch has drafted receivers in the 2nd, 3rd, 2nd, 7th, and 5th round since taking over.
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Ezra Cleveland, OT, Boise State (NR)
The Bucs have had a staggering 11 picks in the first four rounds of the last two drafts. They’ve gone defense with 10 of those picks. With Tom Brady on board, they will need a tackle, even if they have to reach for one. Two buzzy offensive line names with less than a week to go: Cleveland, and Georgia’s Isaiah Wilson.
15. Denver Broncos — Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama (12)
2019 season stats: 77 receptions, 1,163 receiving yards, 10 receiving TDs
Drew Lock would enter his second year surrounded by Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay in the backfield, Noah Fant at tight end, and Courtland Sutton and Jeudy at receiver. The Broncos will be a spicy Wild Card team in the AFC.
16. Atlanta Falcons — C.J. Henderson, DB, Florida (14)
17. Dallas Cowboys — Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama (17)
2019 season stats: 40 receptions, 746 receiving yards, 7 receiving TDs
Jerry Jones could make things very interesting if he targets Jets safety Jamal Adams in a trade. (This pick alone wouldn’t do it.) The Cowboys' depth at pass-catcher took a hit with the loss of Randall Cobb (55 catches) and Jason Witten (63 catches).
18. Miami Dolphins (via Pittsburgh Steelers) — K'Lavon Chaisson, LB/Edge, LSU (20)
19. Las Vegas Raiders (via Chicago Bears) — Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU (21)
2019 season stats: 111 receptions, 1,540 receiving yards, 18 receiving TDs
Suddenly, the Raiders are one of the most interesting teams in the AFC if they go offense-offense in the Top 20. Jefferson, Tyrell Williams, Hunter Renfrow, Nelson Agholor plus Jefferson is a promising quartet.
20. Jacksonville Jaguars (via Los Angeles Rams) — Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma (16)
21. Philadelphia Eagles — Patrick Queen, LB, LSU (19)
22. Minnesota Vikings (via Buffalo Bills) — Jaylon Johnson, CB, Utah (29)
23. New England Patriots — Jordan Love, QB, Utah State (23)
2019 season stats: 293-for-473 passing, 61.9 competion percentage, 3.402 passing yards, 20 TDs, 17 INTs
Yes, I’ve heard your “bad fit” complaints. Love is a tough assessment given how good his 2018 was, and then after all the internal changes, how pedestrian his 2019 was.
24. New Orleans Saints — Brandon Aiyuk, WR, Arizona State (25)
25. Minnesota Vikings — Yetur Gross-Matos, DE, Penn State (27)
26. Miami Dolphins (via Houston Texans) — Cesar Ruiz, G/C, Michigan (NR)
27. Seattle Seahawks — Austin Jackson, OL, USC (18)
28. Baltimore Ravens — Grant Delpit, DB, LSU (NR)
2019 season stats: 2 INTs, 7 passes defended, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovered, 2.0 sacks, 65 total tackles
Heir apparent to Earl Thomas and before him Ed Reed? Delpit played like a Top 5 pick in 2018, but his 2019 season was forgettable.