National Football League

Time To Buy Low

Updated Jul. 14, 2021 8:47 p.m. ET

By Geoff Schwartz

All right, folks. The sports books have fleeced us on NFL bets the last two weeks, but we are getting them back in Week 10!

This Sunday, I love some of the teams the public has written off. (All odds from FOX Bet.)

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Los Angeles Chargers (+2.5) at Miami Dolphins

It’s hard to win multiple weeks in a row -- but it’s also hard to continue to lose one-score games week after week. The Dolphins have currently won four straight, and if they win this weekend, they’d accomplish something only four other teams have done this season. (The Steelers, Seahawks, Titans and Saints are the only clubs with five-game winning streaks in 2020.)

Those are four teams that we’d expect to have significant win streaks. The Dolphins are not and eventually this run is going to end. This is the weekend it will happen, especially when the public believes the Dolphins will win.

Betting with the public isn’t a winning strategy. The public blindly bets on a team that has won four straight against a team like the Chargers, who can’t get out of their own way. The Chargers find new ways to lose each week. They’ve blown leads of 16 or more four times this season and are 1-6 in one-score games. That’s unfathomable. That trend has to change, and I’m wagering it happens this weekend.

Since rookie Justin Herbert took over as Chargers quarterback, the LA offense leads the NFL in yards per game, ranks third in passing yards per game and sixth in third-down efficiency.

The Dolphins defense is impressive in its ability to generate points. The Miami defense has scored two TDs in its last two games, plus it returned a fumble to the 1-yard line against the Rams. Miami loves to bring pressure to force these turnovers. The Dolphins rank fifth in blitz percentage, and opposing quarterbacks are 26th in passer rating when Miami brings pressure.

However, Herbert is excellent against pressure. His passer rating against pressure ranks fourth in the NFL, and he has thrown eight TDs under pressure. So, the Chargers offense should be set up well to handle the Dolphins defense.

On the flip side, the Dolphins offense played well last week at Arizona, often taking advantage of the Cardinals' aggressive pressure scheme late in the game. Rookie Tua Tagovailoa was outstanding at using his legs to avoid defenders.

The Chargers don’t pressure with extra defenders often. They get heat from their defensive line, led by Joey Bosa, who will return from a concussion to face a Dolphins offensive line that ranks middle of the pack in protecting the quarterback.

I’m wagering the Chargers will figure a way to keep this close, as Vegas believes it will be, setting the line at LA getting a field goal. I need the Chargers to lose by less than a field goal or a win outright to cash the wager.

Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)

The Bills just took down the Seahawks with 44 points in one of the best offensive performances of the season. Arizona lost to the Dolphins as a home favorite.

Everyone is back on the Bills bandwagon, and people are jumping off the Cardinals. Not me. Lets look at how Arizona lost. The Dolphins scored on defense. Aided by poor clock management, which is increasing becoming an issue for Kliff Kingsbury, the Cardinals allowed the Dolphins to score a valuable three points before the end of the first half.

With all of that, the Cardinals had an opportunity to tie the game with a 49-yard field goal that was short. How often does that happen? It was a weird game for them. Even after that loss, they are 11th in DVOA (which measures team efficiency) while the Bills sit at 13th.

I love the Cardinals offense in this matchup. Their offense is fifth in the red zone, fourth in yards per play and third in explosive plays. They are balanced, as they can run it well and then let it loose with Kyler Murray, who’s continuing to grow into one of the better QBs in the NFL.

The Bills defense is in the back half of all those stats. They’ve recently allowed big offensive outputs from the Titans, Chiefs (who rushed for more than 200 yards) and the Seahawks. Arizona will score in the 30s.

While the Bills offense can match the Cardinals, the Arizona defense is good on third down and in the red zone, both of which are important when you’re trying to win by a field goal. That’s all I need here, and I think the Cardinals will get it done.

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-3.5)

The Texans are not a good football team. They are 2-6 on the season, with both wins coming against the Jaguars. All six of Houston's losses have been by more than six points, and I only need the Browns to win by three here. Even worse for the Texans, they are a putrid 1-7 against the spread.

The Browns are an outstanding rushing team and are rested after a bye. Their offensive line mauls opponents to the tune of over five yards a carry, good for fourth in the NFL. On the flip side, Houston ranks 31st in rushing yards per-attempt on defense. The Browns should have the services of Nick Chubb, who had missed four weeks with injury. This will only bolster their run game, and I expect the Browns to rush for nearly 200 yards against Houston.

Deshaun Watson is extremely talented, and he deserves better than the Texans. He has no weapons and an interim coach. Houston's passing offense ranks 10th in the NFL, but the Texans can’t run the ball at all. The Browns defense has been up and down, but they have the sixth-best pressure rate in the NFL. When under pressure, Deshaun Watson only completes 48 percent of passes and his yards per-attempt drop to 6.9.

Weekly teaser!

A teaser is a wager where you add six points to either a side or total to get more value. When you wager on a line, you want to use a teaser bet to move through the key numbers of three, seven and 10. Those are the numbers that games most often fall on. So with that, here we go.

Chargers +2.5 to +8.5:
The Chargers have yet to lose a game by more than seven points.

Packers -13 to -7:
If you wait long enough, this line could move to -12.5, which would make this teaser bet even better. But nonetheless, the Packers destroy bad teams. Jacksonville is bad.

New York Giants +3.5 to +9.5:
The last six Giants games have fallen within eight points. Daniel Jones might be a turnover machine, but so is Philly's Carson Wentz. The Giants defense is far better than expected, and they will give the Eagles trouble.

Tampa Bay -6 to even:
This teaser makes Tampa Bay a virtual pick 'em, and I can’t imagine the Bucs playing like garbage against the Saints and then coming to Carolina and once against playing poorly. They will win this game.

Pizza Money Parlay!

Every week, I’ll be giving y’all a small pizza-money parlay. A small wager where you’re wagering on teams winning straight up. The more teams in the wager equals a higher payout, but beware, you need more teams to win.

This week I’m including college games as well!

I like these eight teams this weekend: