National Football League

Road To $1 Million In Week 9

Updated Jul. 14, 2021 4:16 p.m. ET

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By Jason McIntyre

Two rematches, a star QB reeling, and Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson looking to bolster their MVP campaigns highlight Week 9’s Super 6 slate.

Will we see a bevy of underdogs upsets like last week, or will it be a return to chalk?

Enter the NFL Challenge contest on the FOX Super 6 app for free and you can win this week's $1,000,000 jackpot! Download now at foxsuper6.com!

As we head toward all the picks and action of Week 9, here's how I'm handicapping these six games (with all odds via FOX Bet).

Carolina Panthers (+10.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

Not only is Christian McCaffrey expected to return to the 3-5 Panthers, but their best defensive back, Rasul Douglas, returns from the COVID-19 list.

The Panthers' best chance will be 40+ carries from CMC and Mike Davis against the 28th-rated Chiefs run defense, and playing keep-away from Patrick Mahomes. Teddy Bridgewater, who was briefly knocked out of the Atlanta game last week, is not a QB who handles pressure well, as he was sacked 5 times vs. Tampa (loss), 4 times vs. Chicago (loss), and three times vs. Atlanta (loss). The Chiefs, meanwhile, are second in the NFL in pressure rate.

But this is a sleepy spot for the Chiefs – who are probably thinking about their upcoming bye – and money has come in on Carolina early this week. Conservatively, I’d say there’s a 75% chance of this happening: 4 minutes left and the Panthers trailing by 14, Bridgewater goes 4-wide and the Chiefs go to the prevent defense, and the final score makes the game look closer than it was. Chiefs by 7-9 points.

Chicago Bears (+6) at Tennessee Titans

You know the Titans are angry when, on Tuesday, they released two guys who have played significant snaps for them this season – cornerback Johnathan Jospeh and edge rusher Vic Beasley.

The Titans rank last in third-down defense (61%) and 30th in giving up TDs in the red zone (80%), which is great news for Bears fans, who often want to projectile vomit while watching this Nick Foles-led offense. No QB is happier this week than Foles, who has faced four top 10 defenses in the last five weeks (Colts, Bucs, Rams, Saints). The Titans are 20th. Bears by 1-3 points.

Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Buffalo Bills

Something seems off with Josh Allen, who has looked like a different QB since suffering a shoulder injury vs the Raiders. He didn’t miss any time, but the Bills are 0-4 against the spread since the win over Las Vegas, and Allen hasn’t thrown a TD pass in the last two weeks.

Seattle’s sneaky-good No. 6 run defense will force Allen to throw, and do you have confidence in him right now? He should be able to have some success against the Seahawks' 30th-rated pass defense, but Seattle will finally have back all-pro safety Jamal Adams.

Don’t fear the cross-country, 1 p.m. kickoff for Seattle – Pete Carroll is 7-1-1 ATS (9-0 straight up) in the Eastern time zone since 2018. Seahawks by 4-6 points.

Washington Football Team (-3) vs. New York Giants

The Giants are off a short week where they suffered a brutal loss to the Bucs on a missed 2-point conversion. Washington is off a bye. The best individual matchup is Giants CB James Bardberry against Washington’s best weapon, WR Terry McLaurin. Outside of that one, the rest of the game will be played in a phone booth, with both defensive lines dominating.

Simplified: Whichever young, inconsistent QB makes fewer mistakes probably wins. Daniel Jones is tied for the NFL lead with four lost fumbles; he’s third in interceptions with nine. I wouldn’t trust Kyle Allen to walk my dog, but my faith in Daniel Jones is below that, if possible. Washington by 7-9 points.

Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens

It’s a big tell that the line came off the key number of 3 and now the Ravens are favored by -2.5.

Baltimore suffered a devastating loss in LT Ronnie Stanley last week, and then CB Marlon Humphrey tested positive for COVID-19. Five other defensive starters can’t practice until later in the week (if at all). More importantly, Lamar Jackson’s big-game struggles have been magnified, and now he’s facing a healthy Colts defense (third in efficiency).

Puzzling part about the Ravens nobody’s talking about: Last year, the Ravens had the No. 1 offense. This year, they have plummeted to 20th. You could argue the Colts haven’t faced a dynamic offense like this – Indianapolis, amazingly, have not faced a Top 15 offense yet this season. But is Baltimore still dynamic?

Last year, after a hard-fought OT win over the Steelers, Baltimore didn’t cover against Cincinnati as 10.5-point favorites. Colts by 1-3 points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) vs. New Orleans Saints

When these two teams met in Week 1, New Orleans was a 4-point favorite. Two months later, they’re a 5.5-point underdog? What has been behind he 9.5-point swing? Professional gamblers bet numbers, not teams, and their only play here is Saints or pass.

But if you look closely at the earlier meeting, the Bucs had more first downs, total yards, and a better yards-per-play, only for the offense with a new QB to have two interceptions, including a pick-6, and a special teams turnover tilted everything to the Saints.

It’s worth waiting to see if Michael Thomas (finally?) suits up for New Orleans, who must go on the road for the 2nd week in a row against a team seeking payback on SNF. Bucs by 7-9 points.

Enter the NFL Challenge contest on the FOX Super 6 app for free and you can win this week's $1,000,000 jackpot! Download now at foxsuper6.com!

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Jason McIntyre