National Football League

Falcons know they're close, even at 5-7: 'We have a chance'

Updated Nov. 30, 2022 8:51 p.m. ET

The Falcons are 5-7, just as they were this time last year, but head coach Arthur Smith sees a difference.

It starts with the standings. A year ago, the Falcons were 5-7, but four games behind the NFC South-leading Buccaneers. Tampa Bay's struggles this season have them at 5-6, so the Falcons are only a half-game back with five games remaining. Smith also sees progress in his young roster and what they've shown in wins and losses.

"I believe we're a much better team," Smith said Monday after their fifth loss by a single score this season. "We're a pretty disciplined team. Knock on wood, we don't get a lot of penalties, we don't have a lot of mental errors. Does that make you feel any better that you're 5-7? No. But we have a chance."

Most middling teams aren't so fortunate to have so much in play. The Patriots (6-5) and Commanders (7-5) have better records and are in last place in their divisions, and the Chargers, while 6-5, are three games and a tiebreaker behind the Chiefs. As the Bucs continue to stumble and deal with key injuries, the Falcons somehow remain right in the thick of playoff contention.

"It's crazy that we're still in this situation," Smith said. "I feel like a broken record. We're where we were two weeks ago, where we were (Sunday). The way the schedule is, in a perverse way, with a late bye, you're a half-game back in the NFC South, however that works out. It's a unique opportunity, I guess."

And three of Atlanta's next four opponents also have losing records, so there's not just a hope, but even a reasonable expectation of winning those games. Stay close, keep competing, and the season ends with those Bucs coming to Atlanta on Jan. 8.

"These guys, no matter what's happened, they grind it out and it's going to pay off. It has paid off," Smith said Monday. "These young guys, they know what it's like to be in pressure. That's the world we live in. We play in the mud, and we're going to fight you and do everything we can to throw at you to make sure we have a shot to win the game."

The Falcons also know they could have more wins than they do. Sunday's loss to Washington saw them poised at the 2-yard line in the final minutes, down six points, only to have a Marcus Mariota pass deflected at the line and intercepted in the end zone. They led the Saints 26-10 in the fourth quarter before a late collapse, and led the Chargers in the fourth quarter as well. If they close out those games better, this would be a division-leading Falcons team entering the final month of the season.

The Falcons haven't won a division title since 2016, and their last season with a winning record was 2017 — only four NFL teams have gone longer without one, and three (Giants, Commanders, Jets) have winning records right now, with only the Broncos on pace to continue their drought.

Atlanta is 5-7 largely on the strength of a top-five running attack, averaging 160 yards per game despite missing Pro Bowl running back Cordarrelle Patterson for four games along the way. They're on pace to rush for 2,720 yards, which on a per-game basis would be the third-highest total in team history, behind only the 2004 and 2006 teams, which had Michael Vick and Warrick Dunn running all over the field.

They're a half-game out of first despite a defense that ranks 25th in points allowed and in the bottom five in yards, passing yards and third-down conversions. They have 17 sacks, and while only the Rams have fewer per game, there's progress there, as they finished last year with a league-low 18. Smith said the team knows where it needs to improve to win the close games. The run defense could catch a break Sunday, as the Steelers might be without leading rusher Najee Harris, who left the game Sunday with an abdominal injury.

"There are a lot of things we can improve: run defense, run fits, things that are realistic and not just coachspeak," Smith said. "That will be our charge this week."

The loss at Washington on Sunday stung the Falcons, but walking off the field, Smith was reminded of his first year as an NFL assistant, as a 25-year-old defensive quality-control coach with Washington in 2007. That Washington team was 5-3 and lost four in a row to have the same 5-7 record his Falcons do now, before finishing the season on a tear.

"We ripped off four in a row and got in the playoffs," Smith said. "It happens in the NFL. It happens every year. You make it hard on yourself, for damn sure, but we are (in contention). That's the reality of the situation."

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Greg Auman is FOX Sports’ NFC South reporter, covering the Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers and Saints. He is in his 10th season covering the Bucs and the NFL full-time, having spent time at the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.