National Football League

Texans vs. Titans: Point Spread and Over/Under

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

foxsports

Dec 27, 2015; Nashville, TN, USA; Tennessee Titans receiver Harry Douglas (83) is tackled by Houston Texans cornerback Johnathan Joseph (24) and safety Quintin Demps (27) after a reception during the first half at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans: Point spread = Texans -5. The number is 40.5. Here’s what we know:

Dec 27, 2015; Nashville, TN, USA; Tennessee Titans quarterback Zach Mettenberger (7) is hit by Houston Texans linebacker John Simon (51) after throwing the ball during the first half at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

The Texans vs. Titans game, once an easy pick, is now a crapshoot.

The Texans defense cannot be what it would have been with a healthy J. J. Watt. Of course the Texans didn’t have a healthy J. J. Watt in 2016, so maybe it can play to the level it established in the first three games.

On paper, an inspired Christian Covington can match or exceed Watt’s 2016 statistics. But, can Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus keep up their level of play when the Titans blocking schemes now focus on them? That’s a problem.

Can Devon Still help stop the Titans vaunted running game? His reputation as a run stopper is a bit misleading. Yes, he can stop the run when it comes right to him…but a little to the left, a little to the right, not so much. Joel Heath must effectively back-up Covington if the Texans are to use their base defense to stop the Titans runners.

Given the issues, I expect the Titans to move the ball on the ground and control the clock. That will mean the Texans offense spends less time on the field.

So, is the picture better when the Texans are on offense? Maybe, but I don’t think so.

Yes, Bill O’Brien is taking over the play calling responsibilities. Maybe that means a draw play is not the predictable play du jour on third and fifteen. Maybe on third and short we don’t consistently plow directly into the backs of our linemen as they are driven off the ball. But, unless O’Brien stretches the field, exploits the intermediate and deep middle and mixes in an occasional bubble or tunnel screen the results will be similar to what we’ve seen.

The Texans vs. Titans match-up will be fought in the trenches. My gut says the Texans are not built for trench warfare. Last week I ignored my gut and missed the call bigly (I would have said “big time” before I learned a new word in the presidential campaign.).

The Texans have more speed and more talented players overall. They are playing at home. They need the win to stay on pace before the bleak prospect of going to Minnesota. The Texans may be emotionally rallying in reaction to Watt’s absence.

However, until the offensive line has enough talent for the play caller to effectively and unpredictably mix run and pass into an efficient and explosive offense there can’t be much consistent progress. The Texans have explosive weapons, but it is like having a stick of dynamite with no detonator. Are you listening Rick Smith?

Unfortunately, I can’t get past the image of the Titans offensive strength, the run, exploiting the Texans defensive weakness against the run. When comparing the teams’ offenses to the opposing defenses that is by far the biggest mismatch. It will carry the day.

Take the points and the under. Titans win 20-16.