Atlanta Falcons

Super Bowl 51: Best Picks Against the Spread, Over/Under

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 9:12 p.m. ET

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Fansided, Dan Salem/FanSided via NFL Spin Zone

The over/under is huge and both the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons enter Super Bowl 51 red hot. These are your best picks against the spread.

We have had 10 NFL playoff games thus far, with one remaining. As we touched on earlier in the week, eight of the 10 have been blowouts. For wagering purposes, eight of the 10 home favorites have won outright and covered easily. Though there is no home team in Super Bowl 51, the New England Patriots are three-point favorites in the big game. We also have the largest over/under ever for a Super Bowl: 58.5 points.

With a level playing field due to the neutral site of Super Bowl 51, it’s truly even in Vegas. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are enough to warrant three points on the spread, but which team is truly the best pick and do you take the over or under in terms of points scored? Your Super Bowl 51 best picks against the spread.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, discuss the best picks against the spread in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Playoff Record ATS:

Dan Salem: 6-4
Todd Salem: 5-5

Todd Salem: Next week, we will go through some of the best prop bets for the game and what to focus on in that department. For now, who is your pick to win against the spread, and are you taking the over or the under?

I will be personally rooting for the Atlanta Falcons to win, because only a monster or a New England resident would be rooting for the Patriots in this spot. However, I still feel like NE is the better team. The Falcons’ offense is scary, but is it any scarier than New England’s? Also, Atlanta relies heavily on its running game most weeks, with the two-headed attack of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. However, the Patriots have an elite run defense.

The trickiest aspect of this pick is that Atlanta’s defense in the postseason has not at all resembled the unit it was during the regular season. Regular-season Atlanta was one of the worst defenses in football, playoff team or not. Postseason-Atlanta has swallowed up Seattle (a mediocre offense) and Green Bay (an elite offense). Is that a trend or just situational? Green Bay was rolling, but maybe its injuries, specifically at offensive tackle and wide receiver, finally caught up to it. A missed field goal here, an untimely turnover there, and the game got away from the Packers. I’m not convinced Atlanta’s defense was entirely responsible.

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That being said, both defenses are a bit underrated compared to the narrative (that I have helped to perpetuate). An over/under of 58.5 points is a lot, especially for a Super Bowl, where both coaching staffs will be less inclined to take high-risk chances. Super Bowl 47 was the last to reach 58.5 points, but normally the game is lower scoring. I don’t see Atlanta matching its 44 points it scored last round against a Bill Belichick defense. I’d even be surprised if the Falcons got to 36 points like they did in the divisional round.

Dan Salem: You make a strong case for the favorite and certainly history is on New England’s side. Yet I’m firmly against you and backing the underdog.

I like the Falcons in this football game and will take all the points available. A three-point spread means its a push if a last second field goal decides things…everyone loses! That’s what Vegas is hoping for, but I’m choosing to believe what my eyes have shown me regarding Matt Ryan all season. He’s the NFL MVP who can make it happen no matter what. Perhaps the Patriots defense is the best he’ll have faced all season, but New England hasn’t gone up against an offense like his yet either. I’ll call that a draw.

Super Bowl 51 will come down to Atlanta’s defense taking away some of Tom Brady’s options on offense. All they had to do was slow down Aaron Rodgers and keep him frustrated to win. Mission accomplished. It will be the same in the Super Bowl. The Falcons are great at making quarterbacks move around and Brady hates that. If Atlanta disrupts his rhythm early on, expect them to start pulling away in the points column. Both the New England run game and Atlanta’s defense have been underrated. Whomever asserts themselves first will tip the scales. I believe it’s the Falcons.

While Atlanta will do enough to slow down the Patriots offense, I don’t believe New England has an answer for the diversity and versatility across the Falcons offense. I like Atlanta by nearly 10 points, but this is not going to be a shootout and I’m taking the under. The ultimate bet is then on Kyle Shanahan. Does he leave his job with Atlanta after winning a Super Bowl?

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