Preview and Prediction: Oakland Raiders vs. Atlanta Falcons
Still riding the momentum of their comeback win over the New Orleans Saints, the Oakland Raiders (1-0) will take on the Atlanta Falcons (0-1) at The Coliseum on Sunday, September 18th.
Outperforming future Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees in a shootout in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome isn’t easy. Having the guts to try a two-point conversion that would either put you up one point or confirm your loss is a level of coaching not seen everyday.
Raiders head coach Jack Del Rio praised his team for their ability to compete late in last week’s contest.
“At any moment, you can let go of the rope and you’re done,” Del Rio said in his press conference after the game. “We didn’t. There were some moments that really hurt. It hurt to hang in and keep fighting. I think that we are developing that skill and that ability to do that as an organization and as a team with that grittiness that says ‘Hey, we are going to keep coming. We are going to keep coming all day.’ We came here to win. That is what we are about. I am really proud of our guys for that.”
Against Atlanta, Del Rio is hoping he won’t have to put everything on the line in the final minute of the game to come away with the win, but that doesn’t mean Oakland isn’t capable of doing just that.
Sep 11, 2016; New Orleans, LA, USA; Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) celebrates after completing a two point conversion to take the lead during the fourth quarter of a game against the New Orleans Saints at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The Raiders defeated the Saints 35-34. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Carr to Stay in Gear
Having completed 24 of 38 passes for 319 yards and the touchdown that led to veteran receiver Michael Crabtree’s game-winning two-point conversion, Raiders third-year quarterback Derek Carr is already off to a stellar start to the 2016 season.
He is expected to have a similar outing against a Falcons defense that allowed Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston to throw for 281 yards and four touchdowns.
Against Tampa Bay, the Falcons struggled to get pressure on Winston the entire day, as they finished the game with zero sacks and just five hits on the Florida State alum.
Falcons defensive coordinator Richard Smith highlighted the Raiders’ ‘big, physical’ offensive line and Carr’s athletic ability as two things to focus in their week of preparation.
“When you look at their line overall, they’re a big physical group,” Richard said, per James Rael of TheFalcoholic.com. “Ya know, 340 pounds, 330, so it’s a big physical group that can move the line of scrimmage. They’re doing a really nice job of protecting Carr. Plus, Carr has the athletic ability to move around with his feet. A lot of times on third down, he extends those drives, not only with his arm, but with his feet.”
Carr makes one superman dive over a defender to move the chains on third down, and finally everybody is willing to acknowledge his athleticism. I’m glad it doesn’t take much to earn some recognition.
Regardless of whether or not Carr is getting the job done with his feet, strong protection will lead to good things happening through the air for Carr and the Raiders’ offense.
With that being said, Carr’s top two targets, Crabtree and second-year phenom Amari Cooper, will likely get in on the fun, too.
Sep 11, 2016; New Orleans, LA, USA; Oakland Raiders wide receiver Michael Crabtree (15) makes a catch for a two-point conversion while defended by New Orleans Saints cornerback Ken Crawley (46) late in the fourth quarter at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The Raiders won 35-34. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
Coop and Crab Will Remain Kings of the Castle
Bother Cooper and Crabtree had a field day lining up against New Orleans’ younger corners after the Saints’ star corner Delvin Breaux left the game with injury. Now carrying in some added confidence, no injuries will have to occur for the two to pick up right where they left off.
Though 2013 first-round pick Desmond Trufant and 2013 second-round pick Mario Alford have developed into a strong duo starting opposite of each other at cornerback, the two failed to meet high expectations in their 2016 debut.
According to ProFootballFocus.com, Trufant and Alford both earned significantly below average grades matching up against Tampa Bay receivers Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson, as the duo 55th and 56th overall cornerbacks who earned over 20 snaps in Week 1.
Because of his versatility, Trufant is expected to compete with Cooper for a majority of the day.
“At times there will be some match-ups based on the down and distance and certainly some of the call,” Falcons head coach Dan Quinn said, via Michael Cunningham of The Atlanta Journal. “We’ve worked hard at [Trufant] being able to play a number of different spots so, yeah. You will see him in different locations during the game.”
With Trufant occupied with Cooper, Crabtree and Alford will have their own competition on the opposite sideline.
At 5’10”, 186 pounds, Alford will have his hands full against an aggressive receiver like Crabtree, and if Crab starts outperforming him from a physical standpoint, things are going to get ugly, early.
Sep 11, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones (11) carries the ball to score a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the second half at the Georgia Dome. The Buccaneers won 31-24. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Matt Ryan and Julio Jones will Compete in a Shootout
Though Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan likely won’t put up Brees numbers, he still can keep up in a shootout, especially with his star receiver Julio Jones lined up out wide.
In 2015, Ryan completed 66.3 percent of his passes for 4,591 yards and 21 touchdowns, and Jones accounted for 33 percent of both his targets and his completions.
Jones brought in 136 receptions of his 2014 targets (most in the NFL) for 1,871 yards and eight touchdowns in 2015.
Though the duo didn’t wow anyone with their performance against Tampa Bay (Ryan completed just four of his eight targets to Jones for 66 yards and a touchdown), both Ryan and Jones should fair better against the Raiders’ struggling secondary.
Former Chiefs cornerback Sean Smith’s confidence took a hit in his Raiders debut, as he was benched after he capped off his already poor performance by letting New Orleans receiver Brandin Cooks beat him for a 98-yard touchdown. Smith is still expected to start against Atlanta, but he will spend a majority of his time lined up across from the Falcons No. 2 receiver Mohammad Sanu.
At 6’1”, 205 pounds, Raiders veteran cornerback David Amerson will take on an uphill battle matching up against Jones, but he is confident that he is the right guy to get the job done.
“I feel like bigger receivers, for me, are better matchups for me because things that they’re good at are things that I feel like I’m good at,” Amerson said. “Stuff like going up and getting the ball, or playing the ball at the highest point, or [being] physical off the line, so it kind of matches up compared to a faster, shiftier, speedier guy.”
Amerson will have some big pass break-ups against Jones, but he won’t walk off the field without a few blemishes to his performance.
Unless Oakland is able to make some significant improvements in their secondary during their preparation this week, expect the Falcons’ passing attack to drive up the score of the game.
Dec 6, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Raiders inside linebacker Ben Heeney (51) celebrates after a sack against the Kansas City Chiefs during the second quarter at O.co Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
Tight Ends could Take Advantage of Young Linebackers
After his underwhelming debut, Oakland’s 2015 third-round pick Clive Walford is set to have a larger impact with safety Keanu Neal and linebacker De’Vondre Campbell out with injury.
Because of Atlanta’s reshuffled starting defense, Walford should take advantage of some clear mismatches come Sunday.
Walford brought in just three receptions for 25 yards against the Saints in Week 1.
In addition to Walford, Falcons veteran tight end Jacob Tamme should also have a strong performance against the Raiders’ linebacking corps.
Though New Orleans tight end Coby Fleener had just one reception for four yards against Oakland in the week prior, Oakland’s starting linebackers Ben Heeney and Malcolm Smith struggled significantly in both zone and man coverage, for the two were often in bad position when asked to cover the middle of the field or play man coverage in the slot.
Neither Tamme nor Walford will deicide this game, but don’t be surprised if both of them see a great deal of targets.
Aug 18, 2016; Green Bay, WI, USA; Oakland Raiders running back Latavius Murray (28) during the game against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Green Bay won 20-12. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Raiders Have Slight Edge on the Ground
Despite the hype surrounding each of the top running backs — Oakland’s Latavius Murray and Atlanta’s Devonta Freeman — entering this season, the two Pro Bowl backs didn’t do much in their 2016 debut. This trend won’t continue in Week 2.
If we remove Raiders running back Jalen Richard’s 75-yard touchdown run, Oakland had just 92 rushing yards against the Saints, their lead back Murray accounting for just 59 of them on 14 carries.
Atlanta, on the other hand, didn’t have any big runs to remove from their inflated stat line. They just didn’t run the ball well.
The Falcons ran the ball 22 times for just 52 yards (31st in the NFL) against Tampa Bay, as Freeman took 11 of those carries for just 20 yards.
With defensive end Brooks Reed still listed as questionable and Campbell out with injury, the combination of Atlanta’s injuries and their inability to tackle gives the Raiders the slight edge on the ground; however, Freeman will rebound from his poor performance in Week 1 to keep things close.
Because the Saints were able to get things done through the air so effortlessly, New Orleans offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael leaned on Brees’ arm despite running back Mark Ingram’s early success.
Ingram totaled 58 yards on 12 carries (4.8 yards per carry), seeing just five of his carries in the second half.
If the Falcons don’t abandon the run game early, they will have a better chance of controlling the pace of the contest and increasing their time of possession, but it won’t be enough to stop Carr and Murray from taking over when the Raiders have the ball.
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Prediction: Atlanta Falcons 27; Oakland Raiders 34
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