National Football League

NFL Week 4: Five best bets

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Dec 27, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning (10) is sacked by Minnesota Vikings defensive end Brian Robison (96) during the second quarter at TCF Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

In every NFL season, there are times when very little seems to make sense during a given week’s schedule of games. Week 3 was one of those times.

It was a time when the betting novice may question him or herself: Are the St. Louis Rams actually not terrible? Are the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings contenders? Is it time to write the Carolina Panthers and Cincinnati Bengals off?

All could be true — and odds are a couple might be — but that’s why, in gambling and in golf, there are mulligans. And in the words of the legendary coach Jim “PLAYOFFS??” Mora, there are still 13 GAMES TO PLAY! THIRTEEN GAMES!

Your post-game sound bites never get old, Jim.

The good people at FiftyFourPercent.com emphasize how placing bets on the NFL is a marathon, not a sprint. Last week, like many others navigating through mass amounts of unpredictability, they tripped on their shoelaces. But fortunately, they possess ample amounts of catch-up speed and stamina.

On the docket this week:

Odds are based on consensus sportsbook lines through Wednesday, September 28.

Minnesota Vikings (-4.5) vs. New York Giants

FiftyFourPercent:

Mike Zimmer, backed by a top-notch coaching staff, is entering into the top coaches discussion. Minnesota is 27-9 against the spread since Zimmer took over in 2014. The Vikings have covered 16 of their last 18 games, which is 89 percent. The Giants threw $200 million down to make defensive repairs, but the Vikings don’t have a defensive weakness and now have a huge home-field advantage with their glitzy, new $16 billion indoor stadium. The noise level at U.S. Bank Stadium can match any facility, including Seattle’s outdoor Century Link Field.

Jerrick McKinnon and Matt Asiata combined for 1,108 rushing yards and 71 receptions in 2014 when Adrian Peterson had to miss nearly that entire season. The sad truth is the 31-year-old Peterson was showing his age, averaging 1.6 yards per carry on 31 attempts before suffering his knee injury. Sam Bradford provides Minnesota better quarterbacking than it was getting from Teddy Bridgewater, whose main asset was down-the-road potential.

Combine an improved Vikings offense with a defense that yielded 14 points to the Packers, 16 points to the Titans and a mere 10 to the Panthers and you have yourself a serious Super Bowl contender. The Giants don’t have the necessary power ground attack to combat the Vikings and set up Eli Manning against this quality of defense in this most difficult of settings. Unlike the Vikings, the Giants commit lots of turnovers and penalties.

Glauser:

As the late, great Vikings Coach Dennis Green would say, I’m not ready to crown Minnesota’s asses just yet (and just like that, it’s Homage to Former Coach Quotes Day!). Yes, Bradford and the running-back-by-committee has held the fort thus far. But Bradford is still just one sack away from tearing something important on his body and, to terribly paraphrase somebody (probably a former coach), if you have two starting running backs, you have zero starting running backs, especially when all of them are averaging two yards per carry, allowing a formidable Giants front seven to stack the box and dare Bradford to beat them, a tall task.

That said, the Giants also have a running game in flux and a quarterback known to give games away (although he also has two rings, so there). Regardless, both teams are likely overachieving at this juncture, but both will position themselves quite in winnable divisions with a victory here.

Oct 07, 2007 – St. Louis, MO, USA – The Arizona Cardinals KARLOS DANSBY against the St. Louis Rams TORRY HOLT at the Edward Jones Dome. The Cardinals won 34-31 in the NFC West matchup. (Photo by Albert Dickson/Sporting News via Getty Images)

Arizona Cardinals (-7.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams

FiftyFourPercent:

Call this the Get Mad and Destroy Theory. Bruce Arians and his Cardinals should be steaming after being embarrassed at Buffalo this past Sunday. This may have been their worst effort since Arians took over in 2013. He’s not going to stand for it. Now the Cardinals return home where they can take out their frustrations on the Rams with their pop-gun offense.

The Rams have only two areas of strength: the running of Todd Gurley and a defensive line that can pressure the quarterback. The Cardinals will key on Gurley knowing Case Keenum can’t beat them. Until facing the still-maturing Buccaneers this past Sunday, the Rams had a combined 22 offensive possession in their games against the 49ers and Seahawks. In those contests, the Rams punted 16 times, had three field goals and three turnovers.

The Cardinals have a strong history of getting the job done against bad teams, covering 19 of the past 27 times (70 percent) versus below .500 opponents. The Rams’ pass rushers could wilt in the desert heat especially following a long ride home after playing last week in Florida humidity. Look for the Cardinals to take what the Rams give them, which will be the middle of the field since conservative Jeff Fisher will be guarding against the deep ball with zone coverages. The Cardinals buried the Rams at home by 24 points last year. The set-up is right for them to do it again.

Glauser:

It is quite possible that these two teams had a Freaky Friday situation occur last Sunday and switched bodies. On paper, neither should be in the position that they’re at this point. But the reality is that it really will take a movie plot straight out of a Disney production for these Hollywood transplants to keep it going. Remember: The Rams quarterback is Keenum (for now), their top receiver is Kenny Britt and their top running back (Gurley, the one who was actually supposed to do well), is averaging less than three yards per carry. (Continued) Good luck with that.

Meanwhile, this truly is a statement game for Arizona. They’ve been knocking at the door of Super Bowl contention for a couple years now and not getting any younger. The Bills loss was embarrassing, and Arians is too good a coach to allow that to happen again. Even a close victory may offer doubts into how legitimate the Cardinals really are.

Oakland Raiders (+3.5) at Baltimore Ravens

FiftyFourPercent:

Baltimore may have been the unluckiest team in 2015. This year it’s turned around as the Ravens may be the luckiest. A blocked field goal, late game turnover and clutch kicks by Justin Tucker have allowed the Ravens to survive each week in beating the Bills, Browns and Jaguars. Want to know the combined record of those three Baltimore opponents? Why, it’s 1-8!

The Ravens’ ground game has been nonexistent. Their passing attack has also been inconsistent, managing just 13 points against Buffalo and 19 versus Jacksonville. Baltimore’s record as a home favorite is 1-7-1 the past nine times. Derek Carr has more upside than Joe Flacco. He’s already better and is going to provide a major test for the largely untested Ravens’ secondary.

The Raiders have a top 10 offense and a defense far more talented than it’s numbers show. There is the matter of this being the Raiders’ third road game in four weeks and having an early start time, usually a bad factor for a West Coast team traveling East. Oakland, though, already is 2-0 straight up and ATS this season, having played early games in wins against the New Orleans Saints and Tennessee Titans. So their biological clocks have adjusted.

Glauser:

Going into the season, I had two AFC teams that looked ripe to take the next leap into respectability: The Jaguars and the Raiders. While I now have one leg dangling off the Jacksonville bandwagon (and will make a full eject upon a loss to the Indianapolis Colts in London), I remain steadfast in my respect for Oakland thus far. And the biggest unsung hero on the roster right now may be the offensive line. Even without a legit No. 1 back, they’re rushing at a healthy 5.1 yards per carry clip. Carr has looked comfortable in the pocket and has only been sacked twice in three games. All of this and Amari Cooper has yet to reach the end zone.

Similar to their purple counterparts in the NFC, I’m not sold on the Ravens just yet. Like the Vikings, they have a solid coach in John Harbaugh. Also like the Vikings, they have an uncertain running attack and a veteran quarterback in Joe Flacco that can be prone to the costly turnover. They’ve ridden the coattails of their defense to this point, but it’s an aging unit with possible stamina concerns. This could be the game that signifies a changing of the guard of sorts for perennial AFC playoff contenders.

Nov 23, 2015; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots wide receiver Danny Amendola (80) runs past Buffalo Bills strong safety Duke Williams (27) during the second half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

New England Patriots (-3) vs. Buffalo Bills

FiftyFourPercent:

Tom Brady doesn’t come off suspension until next week. Jimmy Garoppolo has a sore right shoulder. Jacoby Brissett has a sprained thumb on his throwing hand. Still, Bill Belichick probably could win this game with Julian Edelman as his quarterback, although the early feeling is Garoppolo could be ready.

The Bills have their own injury and suspension woes with Sammy Watkins, cornerback Ronald Darby and offensive left tackle Cordy Glenn all missing last Sunday and star defensive tackle Marcell Dareus under suspension. The Pats have won eight of the last nine in the series and are 20-7-2 ATS during their past 29 home contests. Their walking wounded have had extra time to recuperate having played last Thursday.

Glauser:

Go ahead. Keep writing the Patriots off. They dare you. I mean, does it even matter anymore who they suit up? Belichick is a mad genius, arguably the greatest coach football has ever seen, and maybe in any other sport as well. If he didn’t come across as such a miserable person, he’d get more love. But mad geniuses could care less about love, and New England just keeps chugging along.

With that said, there are some intangibles that matter here. Bills coach Rex Ryan — the antithesis to Belichick in terms of likability and media friendliness — is fresh off perhaps his most impressive win since coming to Buffalo at the hands of the Cardinals, but still fighting for his future here. And he’s running out of assistants to fire. Meanwhile, the Pats still have to put SOMEBODY behind center … don’t they? And with Brady returning next week and facing a hungry divisional opponent, it’s possible they may take their foot off the gas a little bit. Then again, Rob Gronkowski should be a bigger factor this week, so there’s that.

The key to this game will likely be ball control. Can LeSean McCoy and Tyrod Taylor keep the chains moving? Can the Bills win the turnover battle? I hope so, if for no other reason than the world needs Rex Ryan to keep coaching for sheer entertainment purposes alone.

Oct 25, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) catches a pass and is chased by Pittsburgh Steelers inside linebacker Lawrence Timmons (94) during the second half at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs won 23-13. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

FiftyFourPercent:

Expect the Steelers’ offense to be much better this week than it was against the surprising Eagles with Le’Veon Bell back from suspension. Marcus Peters already has established himself as a premier cornerback, but the Chiefs lack depth in the secondary. Ben Roethlisberger can take advantage of that with a deep pass-catching group headed by Antonio Brown, the No. 1 wide receiver in football, especially with the threat of Bell now in the backfield.

This could be the week that Jamaal Charles makes his season debut giving Alex Smith not only an upper tier running back but a dangerous receiving threat out of the backfield. Kansas City could really feel the absence of its top pass rusher, Justin Houston, in this match-up.

Glauser:

And now, Steeler Nation, let’s discuss football’s “What The Eff Was That?” Game of the Week. Regardless of how legitimate the Eagles may turn out to be (and as a Birds fan, it really feels good typing that), that was a poop show of epic proportions for Pittsburgh. Roethlisberger looked frazzled and struggled the entire contest to locate a receiver not named Antonio Brown. And in turn, Philly may have given the rest of the NFL some valuable scouting film on how to play one of the league’s most dynamic offenses. Even more concerning, however, was how their defense was manhandled by a rookie quarterback and a couple young, anonymous running backs.

Meanwhile, a win for the Chiefs here may give them true contender status, at least until the playoffs when Andy Reid does Andy Reid things (and there’s the bitter Birds fan in me coming out). Smith has quietly become one of the better game managers out there (though continuing to get sacked three times a game may test that) and the defense is a straight-up turnover machine.

The biggest story line here could be the season debuts of two of best running backs in the game in Bell and Charles, as RB-depleted fantasy owners rejoice across the land. Bell, returning from suspension is a given. Charles, returning from injury, might be a game-time decision, which may also affect the line.