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NFL Predictions: Week 4 Picks and Hot Takes

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Nov 22, 2015; Glendale, AZ, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton (14) and Cincinnati Bengals running back Giovani Bernard (25) before facing the Arizona Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

We return with another edition of NFL predictions, this time with NFL week three picks for all 15 games this weekend, including the Thursday night tilt between the Bengals and Dolphins. As always, you can follow NFL Mocks on Twitter @NFLMocks and Joe Wedra on Twitter @JoeWedra.

Last week wasn’t great, I’ll admit it. But it was so weird at the same time. The record was 9-7 last week, which can be viewed from two different lenses.

The good – it was the third week in a row with a record over .500 (hooray for defeating mediocrity!) … the bad, well, losing on seven games is pretty terrible, even for a 16-game weekend. But alas, life moves on. Just as it does for my Baltimore Orioles, who are still clinging to that playoff spot. Root for them this weekend for me, would you?

Onward with the NFL picks this weekend. Both Philadelphia and Green Bay take their byes in this week four, leaving just 15 games to get back on track with a double-digit win total here. Join along in the comments section below, as long as you’ll promise to not yell.

Sep 29, 2016; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill (17) warms up prior to the game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports

Miami Dolphins vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 8:25 p.m. ET on Sunday, NFLN

You’d think at home, this is Cincinnati’s game to lose. And the -7 line here tells the story fairly nicely. It’s not that the Bengals have played poorly in the last two weeks, rather beaten by very legitimate opponents in Pittsburgh and Denver. Of course, you could also make the argument that they’re two Jets points away in week one from being 0-3, but that’s speculation for another day. Don’t doubt Andy Dalton and the offense. There’s still plenty in the tank to put up big numbers throughout the year.

In Miami, things aren’t exactly going great. Last week’s win against Cleveland might be a morale booster, and that’s great. But Adam Gase’s squad can’t be thrilled about the performance of their defense, now struggling against Jimmy Garoppolo and Cody Kessler consecutively. Clutch plays are few and far between on offense, hardly enough to convince that they’ll travel to Cincinnati and beat an extremely talented Bengals team playing on their home turf.

If they find a way to finally effectively run the football to assist Ryan Tannehill, Miami has a shot. But all signs point to a great time for the home fans in Cincy on Thursday night.

Bengals rough up the Dolphins, capture 29-16 win.

Sep 11, 2016; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (12) passes the ball in the first quarter of the game against the Detroit Lions at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 9:30 a.m. ET on Sunday, NFLN

The Jaguars head to London with one goal in mind: score more points. Last week, Blake Bortles and the offense heard the boo birds at home, as Baltimore entered and shut down anything the Jacksonville had to offer, especially the rushing attack. They picked off Bortles three times, but the most impressive defensive performance was consistently against the rush, where Chris Ivory managed 14 yards on 12 rushes – not exactly a winning formula. If they want the win here, they’ll need to cash in on the ground against a vulnerable Colts defense.

For Indianapolis, the game plan isn’t exactly clear cut. For another season, it seems identity is missing across the board on both offense and defense. Andrew Luck’s talent will only take Pagano’s squad so far. And if the defense continues to give up massive numbers as they did against Detroit and Denver, it’s hard to imagine Indy compiling more than six or seven wins.

In what should prove to be a scrappy, ugly game across the pond, watch for the battle in the trenches to be a key factor here. Whichever squad can be most disruptive at the point of attack should have the clear edge.

Jaguars find a way in London, get first win of the year with 20-17 victory over Colts.

Sep 26, 2016; New Orleans, LA, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) throws the ball prior to the game against the New Orleans Saints at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons, 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, FOX

Though they’re the underdogs, there’s a whole lot to like about this Falcons team at this point in the year. Who would’ve thought — after the brutal struggles to open the season — that we’d be talking, yet again, about the Falcons contending for a playoff spot later in the year. Regardless, this Atlanta offense is no joke. It seems easy to say they’re the NFC version of the Colts, but there’s much more to like on Atlanta’s side. In this one, with the Carolina secondary surely not as vaunted as years past, don’t be surprised to see Matt Ryan and Co. have a successful outing.

For Carolina, it feels like we’re entering must-win territory. Sure, it might be an overreaction in just the fourth week of the season, but let’s not forget that the season is a quarter of the way through after Sunday’s games. Emerging from the first set of four with a single win isn’t acceptable, especially for a team coming off of a near Super Bowl title. Ron Rivera and the staff must game plan effectively here, particularly on defense. If they can’t find a way to shut down the Atlanta passing attack, it could be a long afternoon in the Georgia Dome.

Falcons surprise again, beat the Panthers in divisional clash, 31-29.

Sep 18, 2016; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) talks to the offensive line during the second quarter against the Tennessee Titans at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears, 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, FOX

Well, this one leaves a bit to be desired to say the least. Unfortunately for Chicago, the worst case scenario has emerged. Across the board, things just aren’t working. The defense can’t make stops against the pass or rush and Jay Cutler and/or Brian Hoyer are failing to produce NFL-caliber big numbers on offense. The best storyline heading into the season, running back Jeremy Langford, is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry in limited touches early. There doesn’t appear to be a winning recipe for the Bears at the moment, a trend that might carry on throughout the remainder of the season.

There’s quite a bit more to be intrigued with on Detroit’s side, even on the road this Sunday. Theo Riddick has been special early on, while Matthew Stafford is tossing the ball with authority and making impressive throws to his new target, Marvin Jones. The defense is suspect, there’s no doubt about it. However, a matchup against a Chicago offense that leaves much to be desired shouldn’t prove to be the most difficult task of the season. The Lions held Tennessee to just 16 points — there’s no reason they can’t be as dominant in this one.

Lions tack on second win of the season, defeat Chicago, 23-17.

Sep 18, 2016; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick on the side line during the fourth quarter against the Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium. The New England Patriots won 31-24. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots, 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, CBS

Is there anything needed to be said about the 2016 New England Patriots? You know the storylines and you know the drill. At home, in Foxboro, against Rex Ryan, there’s not a chance that Bill Belichick is losing this game. As Ryan eluded to Belichick playing QB in his post-game presser last weekend, I couldn’t help but chuckle. Simply put — Belichick probably could suit up as a member of the 53 and still take down the Bills this Sunday. It’s the Patriot way. No matter which QB takes the snaps, New England will do what New England does.

The good news for Buffalo actually lies within last Sunday’s win against Arizona, one in which they played elite defense against an incredibly potent Arizona offense. The Cardinals are no joke and Ryan’s squad took care of business, picking off Palmer four times en route to a 15-point win. If they can scheme up a game plan that relies heavily on the run as they did against Arizona, there’s a chance here. Dominating time of possession is one of the very few ways to take care of the Patriots. Tyrod Taylor is no stranger to the big play; utilizing his rushing ability is likely the best plan of attack here.

However, against the Patriots? The story writes itself…

New England improves to 4-0 with a win over Buffalo, 26-20.

Dec 27, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Doug Baldwin (89) celebrates his touchdown reception against the St. Louis Rams during the third quarter at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Seattle Seahawks at New York Jets, 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, FOX

Here’s a sneaky good matchup tucked away with the early slate of games. For both teams, it’ll be intriguing to see the response from last week. For Seattle, their week three win against San Francisco felt more convincing. They held Blaine Gabbert — as they should have — to 119 yards passing, shutting down the 49ers receiving corps throughout the afternoon. Carlos Hyde broke a big 34-yard run to get his total up to 103, but the film was impressive, on both sides for Seattle. The talent is there. As it’s been for years with Pete Carroll’s group, it’s a battle of executing throughout the game.

The response on the Jets side, particularly their game plan strategies throughout the week, will be interesting to watch unfold at home as the underdogs. Last week was a complete disaster. There’s no other way to put it. Ryan Fitzpatrick’s six turnovers, combined with the defense’s inability to stop Alex Smith, was embarrassing, a feeling written all over Todd Bowles’ face after the 24-3 loss. They have to be better — it doesn’t get any simpler than that. Matt Forte has been effective early on, but against the Seahawks defense, is that the way to capture the upset? Even early in the season, this game will shed a whole lot of light on the coaching staff’s ability to construct a winning game plan against one of the league’s best.

Seahawks win on trip across the country, shut down Jets, 24-17.

Sep 25, 2016; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; Washington Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins (8) throws the ball against the New York Giants during the first quarter at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Cleveland Browns at Washington Redskins, 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, CBS

By all means, this shouldn’t be a very attractive game. The Redskins and the Browns battling doesn’t exactly have a flashy appeal, and it’ll be hidden well behind a slate of solid 1:00 games.

However, this game holds large value for Washington, giving Jay Gruden’s squad a chance to get to .500 at the quarter pole. Kirk Cousins is spreading the ball around nicely to a sneaky good array of weapons on offense. He’ll always have question marks surrounding his game, but he’s a 16-game quarterback who gives a team an opportunity to win. Overall, he has a bit of a Joe Flacco feel. Regardless of his play, don’t be surprised to see the Redskins attempt to make a push in letting Matt Jones break out early in this one. He’s due for a breakout game; for the first time this year, they should be able to feed him 20+ carries to tire down the Cleveland defense.

For the Browns, there’s unfortunately not much to say. It’s the same story in a different year. You have to feel for Hue Jackson, a tremendous coach doing everything he can to be the glue to hold this team together. Perhaps Cody Kessler takes valuable reps in hopes of improving his future with the team, but there isn’t much to love with this matchup on the road this week. The puzzle hasn’t been completed in Cleveland, and it looks like it might be a while before it’s even close.

Redskins move to 2-2 with a win over the Browns, 28-16.

Sep 18, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Raiders defensive end Khalil Mack (52) stands on the field before the start of the game against the Atlanta Falcons at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens, 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, CBS

You are what your record says you are in the NFL, regardless of style points. The Ravens haven’t looked brilliant through their first three, but they’ve captured a trio of victories early to set up a massive AFC matchup this Sunday at home. Joe Flacco finally has Dennis Pitta healthy, and it’s been paying off in a big way. The duo is lethal when they’re given the opportunity by the offensive line. Consistency is key for the Ravens, but with the recent dominance on the defensive side, the season appears to be heading in the right direction.

Oakland’s cross-country performance in this one could prove to be massive down the stretch in the AFC Wild Card race. Both teams look to be on their way to contending in November and December and holding this tie-breaker will be no joke. The strategy in the Oakland camp should be clear-cut: attack the Ravens secondary that has had major consistency problems in the past. The Baltimore defensive backfield has been solid throughout the first three weeks, but the skilled-position matchup should favor Oakland when the Raiders offense hits the field. Look out for a steady dose of the deep ball early and often.

Raiders take advantage of big arm of Derek Carr, out-score Ravens, 33-28.

Sep 25, 2016; Nashville, TN, USA; Tennessee Titans running back DeMarco Murray (29) gets away from a tackle attempt by Oakland Raiders safety Nate Allen (20) during the first half at Nissan Stadium. The Raiders won 17-10. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans, 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, CBS

Like Marcus Mariota on the other side, Brock Osweiler has been a bit of a mixed bag thus far in 2016. Everything seems to be in place for a productive full-season effort, but the parts haven’t all been pieced together yet, perhaps not a surprise considering the early nature of the season. This week, it’s critical that Osweiler and his band of playmakers kick into full gear and execute a formidable game plan against a Tennessee defense that they shouldn’t, on paper, stumble much against. The loss of J.J. Watt on the defensive end is brutal, but the defense is still plenty talented to put Osweiler and the troops in positions to win. Like so many young offenses, it’s all about execution early to gain momentum.

Tennessee doesn’t quite have the simplest task this week, but a win on the road here is doable. You’d like to see a defensive performance that doesn’t allow anything over the top, keeping the game within reaching distance for Mariota and the offense. They’ll likely have to put the ball in the former Oregon Duck’s hands to win — but what better time than the present to take command and rough up another AFC opponent? Mariota isn’t dealing with the most talented cast of playmakers, but his talents are enough to pull off the upset this Sunday.

Quietly, this one might take home the prize as one of the better games of the weekend.

Titans capture win on the road, pull off fourth-quarter comeback win, 24-22.

Nov 23, 2014; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos wide receiver Demaryius Thomas (88) celebrates with wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders (10) after scoring a touchdown during the first half against the Miami Dolphins at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday, CBS

Denver might be the favorite on the road here, but it feels wrong to count Tampa Bay out of this one completely. Sure, the Broncos are likely the better and more well-rounded team, but there’s so much to love about the makeup of the Buccaneers offense. Jameis Winston shows flashes of being brilliant with his giant weapons across the board, even if he doesn’t have the league’s best rushing attack to rely on. He’s a gamer who, when he’s on, is one of the more exciting guys to watch in this league. Unfortunately, there won’t be too many opportunities to thrive if his defense continues to allow 40 and 37 points per game, what they’ve done respectively over the last two weeks.

While my heart says Jameis Winston has the ability to be great, my gut and football analysis tells me this is a no-brainer here. Denver is too great, sideline to sideline, to struggle with these Bucs. You’d like to think that this one can be a close game, but logic and almost every number on the stat books say the Broncos win and win it big. This squad is still extremely dangerous — battling a defense that has more question marks than sure things, it’s hard to believe they’ll struggle to find a way to win with their sheer talent and physical nature.

Broncos improve to 4-0, grab 30-17 win against Tampa Bay on the road.

Sep 18, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; Arizona Cardinals defensive back Marcus Cooper (41) intercepts a pass and returns it for a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the second half at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals, 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday, FOX

What a strange start to the season for Arizona. Much like the Panthers, it’s been a tale of seemingly two teams hitting the field. Last week’s offensive output against Buffalo was as poor as we’ve seen from Bruce Arians’ group in recent memory. Carson Palmer shouldered much of the blame after tossing four interceptions, but the struggles existed across the board. At home, the Rams present a winnable matchup. The one-on-one battles go to Arizona almost across the board, and there’s little doubt that they’ll be ready to roll at home after dropping two of their first three games.

But Jeff Fisher’s team might have a little something to say about the confidence of their divisional rival’s fanbase. They were effective in the short-yardage game last week, helping Todd Gurley get into the end zone for the first two times this season. The young back has fallen a bit short of expectations of a colossal breakout season, but his growth is evident. The issue here is the ultimate single-threat of the Los Angeles offense. The Arizona strategy is simple — stuff Gurley at the point of attack and the game is won.

Barring another performance akin to last week’s debacle, Arizona is going to score. And unless the Rams can put up numbers in the passing game, it’ll be difficult to out-score a potent Cardinals attack.

Arizona finds rhythm, Cardinals beat Rams in divisional showdown, 29-19.

Aug 28, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; San Diego Chargers running back Melvin Gordon (28) during a preseason game against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Vikings defeated the Chargers 23-10. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

New Orleans Saints vs. San Diego Chargers, 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday, FOX

It’s hard to not feel for the Saints. Drew Brees might just be the most likeable guy on the planet (perhaps fans of fellow NFC South teams would disagree), and the defense just can’t help him along the way. Brees and that offense can only score so much; if the woes on defense continue, his arm might fall off before the end of his contract. You’d like to think New Orleans has a chance in this one, but how can we peg the defense for any performance other than one akin to Monday night’s, especially against a red-hot Phillip Rivers?

The Chargers offense is still working through a few kinks, but they appear well on their way to a productive season, even sans Keenan Allen. Travis Benjamin’s production has been a welcomed addition, while Melvin Gordon continues to gain his sea legs by the week. The injury to Danny Woodhead brutally hurts the unit as a whole. But Rivers has a knack for doing big things without a massive arsenal at his disposal. If the offensive line can pull the weight on Sunday, there’s no reason to believe Rivers can’t victimize this flawed New Orleans defense.

Hopefully you enjoy shootouts – the over/under here is 53.5.

Chargers attack Saints defense early and often, pick up 30-27 win.

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers, 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday, FOX

The 49ers… well, they are who we thought they were. After pitching a shutout in their first battle against L.A., the defense has been struggling to say the least. Both Carolina and Seattle flawlessly carved up the squad, performances on par with what we should expect to see this week as well. Dallas is no joke, perhaps more potent than the Seahawks group they saw last week. Blaine Gabbert’s opportunity to get back on track is shortening by the week – if he doesn’t improve against Dallas at home, the Kaepernick cheers will be fierce.

Zeke Elliott’s outing against Chicago last Sunday night more than encouraging for a Dallas offense that appears to be set for the next 10 seasons. His workload has increased by the week, and there’s a legitimate chance that he receives another workload of 30+ touches this week. The Cowboys shouldn’t have to do too much here, even on the road against a desperate squad. As long as they hang onto the football and don’t make game-shifting games, this one should turn out to be a walk in the park.

Cowboys take down 49ers on the road, 24-16.

Sep 25, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Marcus Peters (22) celebrates after intercepting a pass in the end zone during the second half against the New York Jets at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs won 24-3. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers, 8:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, NBC

Before last Sunday’s mess against Philadelphia, the Steelers would’ve been the easy pick here and it wouldn’t have been close. Unfortunately, when a team prepares and game-plans as well as the Eagles did, a win doesn’t exactly come easy. That’s the worry with Pittsburgh here. As impressive as Ben Roethlisberger and that offense is, how will they react with bad film now out for the dissecting? The NFL is 70% won via preparation, 30% on game day (these are made up numbers, but they sound good, right?). If KC prepares as well as Philadelphia does, don’t rule out a repeat result.

Oddly enough, it feels like the Chiefs are in the more favorable spot this weekend. With the emergence of Spencer Ware, the offense is running smoothly with all hands on deck. Depth might not exactly be top-notch, but the offense has the ability to keep pace with a Pittsburgh offense that can be contained enough to keep this close in the second half.

Don’t sleep on this one as being the best clash of the weekend. Two solid teams in a primetime game? What a great idea!

Chiefs pull the upset over Pittsburgh with surprise offensive performance, 30-29.

Sep 25, 2016; Charlotte, NC, USA; Carolina Panthers tight end Greg Olsen (88) drops a pass as he is hit by Minnesota Vikings middle linebacker Eric Kendricks (54) during the second half at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings, 8:30 p.m. ET on Monday, ESPN

Are the Vikings for real? Who knows – but the NFL is a game of trends. Once you cruise through three games, we’re no longer in “aberration territory”. Now, the running game is awfully in flux without Adrian Peterson, but Sam Bradford appears poised to lean on his defense to do just enough to win these ballgames. Mike Zimmer and his staff have helped the defense hold Green Bay and Carolina to 14 and 10 points respectively. That’s no joke. Against the Giants, this one looks promising.

Of course, don’t count out the ability of Eli Manning to put up a decent showing, even on the road. It just doesn’t feel like it’s in the cards to knock off a sneaky legitimate Minnesota team. If it turns out to be a battle of the running games, give me NYG in a tight one. But if the Vikings can find a way to exploit one-on-one matchups in the open field, this is Minnesota’s game to lose.

Vikings stay undefeated, knock off Giants in 32-28 thriller.