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NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 13

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 12:02 p.m. ET

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NFL picks against the spread for Week 13 as the weather gets colder and playoff races heat up.

Five weeks now separate fans, players, and teams alike from the 2016 NFL Playoffs. Not only does that mean it’s time for everyone to start getting excited and for anxiety levels to rise, but also that things are about to get wild around the league. Playoff races will raise the stakes of some games (as will possible draft positioning) and the weather getting colder in some places will change the style of play. Subsequently, these NFL picks against the spread get even more difficult entering Week 13.

Yet we must venture onward into this part of the season. However, it’s hard to believe that we’re in the final week of byes already. Though we certainly know a bit more than we did at the start of the year, there still feels like an inordinate amount of uncertainties throughout the league. Perhaps that’s the parity of the NFL as a whole right now, but it could just be an increased level of unpredictability and inconsistency.

Thursday was kind last week with the Thanksgiving Day games as I went 2-1 with my NFL picks against the spread. Unfortunately, the Thursday Night Football matchup in Week 13 did not yield the same positive results. I had the Dallas Cowboys as four-point favorites. With the late Minnesota Vikings touchdown, they got the backdoor cover to start me off at 0-1.

However, there’s always time to turn things around. I’m a combined 18-11-1 over the last two weeks, so I’m on a bit of a hot streak. I was due considering how horribly I performed early on. Let’s continue to try and rectify that unmitigated disaster. Here are my Week 13 NFL picks against the spread.

Week 12 Record ATS: 9-6-1

2016 Record ATS (No Picks Week 1): 76-80-5

Nov 27, 2016; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Dolphins defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh (93) applies pressure to San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick (7) during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. The Dolphins won 31-24. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears (EVEN)

Oh, man. This game is actually a thing that is happening on Sunday in Week 13. Both the 49ers and Bears are jockeying for position in the 2017 NFL Draft as they’re nowhere close to being competitive moving forward. Subsequently, a loss here might actually mean more for either team. That said, the 49ers with Colin Kaepernick at the helm have looked mildly competent offensively. And while Matt Barkley was far more impressive in his first start than expected, there’s also far less of a proven track-record there. I’m taking the Niners to blow up their shot at the No. 2 pick with a win here.

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Pick: 49ers (EVEN)

Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots (-13)

Let me start off by saying that the Los Angeles Rams are not a good football team. We saw what happened last week when they go up against a quality offense as the New Orleans Saints put up 49 points on them. Now Jared Goff and his merry band of lackluster offensive players are on the road again in Foxboro. However, the Patriots are without Rob Gronkowski this week and moving forward in 2016. Subsequently, their offense might not be as dangerous and I’m tempted to take LA’s defense to cause them problems. However, the game being in frigid Foxboro in early December makes me give the edge to the Pats in a LeGarrette Blount-heavy victory.

Pick: Patriots -13

Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5)

After all the world was buzzing about Eagles rookie quarterback Carson Wentz early on, the hype has rightfully died down. It’s not been entirely his fault as his receivers have clubs for hands and his offensive line is banged up. But it’s still been a fall from grace as Philly is bottoms in the NFC East. That said, they’ve at least shown flashes, which is more than the Bengals have done this year. Again without A.J. Green, the Bengals are in trouble in this one and will drop another at home.

Pick: Eagles +1.5

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-6)

There’s certainly a chance that the Saints in the dome will be able to come up with a win against the Lions, despite having the worse record. They have a bit more on the line in terms of postseason chances and, of course, are dominant at home. What’s more, Matthew Stafford and Detroit have been playing every game closely and squeaking by with wins. That’s not a good recipe against Drew Brees. That said, this spread still feels entirely too high. When you have a quality offense and team like the Lions getting almost a touchdown, you have to take it in my mind.

Pick: Lions +6

Nov 27, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) reacts after scoring a touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. The Chiefs defeated the Broncos 30-27 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5)

For the early slate, this game holds the most intrigue in regards to the playoff race. Both teams are in tight spots in their division, the Chiefs trailing the Oakland Raiders by one game and the Falcons trying to hang on ahead of the suddenly hot Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Kansas City is coming off of their huge win on Sunday Night Football last week against the Denver Broncos while Atlanta put a hurting on the Arizona Cardinals. With all that in mind, I’m taking the Chiefs here. Though they tired a bit, their defense looked dominant at times against the Broncos. And with Adrian Clayborne and Desmond Trufant out for the Falcons defense, KC should be able to pull through with a needed road win.

Pick: Chiefs +4.5

Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)

Last week I completely dismissed the Packers and wrote them off as being toast. Then a pissed off Aaron Rodgers came out and made me look foolish on Monday Night Football. Look, this defense is still an absolute disaster and they seem to have Rodgers willing this team to victory. Even then, I still have substantially more confidence in Green Bay than the Texans. Yes, their defense is still quality, but that offense is so abhorrently putrid. Brock Osweiler has been worse than could’ve possibly been expected and the offense is impotent as a result. Green Bay wins handily at Lambeau Field.

Pick: Packers -6.5

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)

This line feels completely reactionary to what the Miami Dolphins did last week. Though they may have pushed their winning streak one game further, they also looked uninspiring up against the San Francisco 49ers. However, they were also traveling to the West Coast and the Niners have been sneaky frisky as of late. Meanwhile, the Ravens had to do their normal survival routine to top a Cincinnati team that might be one of the worst in the league—though no one cares to admit it—as well. Subsequently, a shorter road trip spells an outright victory for Miami, though this should be a good game.

Pick: Dolphins +3.5

Denver Broncos (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

When you see the vaunted Denver defense get torched in a late-game situation by the Chiefs, it doesn’t do much for your confidence. And sure, that game on Sunday night devolved in weird ways where Trevor Siemian actually looked like a competent quarterback. However, now rookie Paxton Lynch might be back in the fold for the Broncos with Siemian injured, thus putting the pressure back on that defense. However, even Lynch should be able to lead the Broncos to a win against this putrid Jaguars team that I could truly see losing out in a furious flame of disappointment.

Pick: Broncos -3.5

Nov 21, 2016; Mexico City, MEX; Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) and linebacker Khalil Mack (52) celebrate after a NFL International Series game against the Houston Texans at Estadio Azteca. The Raiders defeated the Texans 27-20. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders (-3)

Fresh off Derek Carr’s finger getting mangled like an arm in 127 Hours (okay, not that bad) and the Raiders moving to 9-2, they’re at home again with another tough test coming to town. Rex Ryan’s Bills have certainly been hot and cold all season and have failed to find middle-ground. However, their peaks have been impressive and, more importantly, not dependent on being at home or on the road. However, a trip to the Black Hole across the country isn’t your average road trip. Subsequently, it’ll be a tough task for Buffalo, even if Oakland often finds themselves in tough games. I believe the Raiders simply have that spark and keep it lit in Week 13.

Pick: Raiders -3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Diego Chargers (-3.5)

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While there are tough lines to ponder throughout the week, this one rings as the most difficult. On the one hand, you have a perpetually underrated Chargers team seemingly competing in every game they play. The other shows the Bucs, who are hot right now and vying for the NFC South lead if things can break right for them. However, Tampa has also been wildly inconsistent through 12 weeks. So what does that mean on the road for the Buccaneers? Frankly, I think Jameis Winston has turned a corner and is heading right into superstardom. Though the Chargers will put up a fight, the Bucs are reaching their peak right now and that’s bad news for San Diego.

Pick: Buccaneers +3.5

Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals (-1)

I’m done believing in the Cardinals—simple as that. Time and again I’ve made excuses for their disappointing season and given reasons why Week X is when they turn it around. No more. Their defense isn’t playing to its potential while the Washington offense is behind Kirk Cousins. Moreover, the Redskins pass-rush has been beastly and the Arizona offensive line porous. That’s bad news for Carson Palmer and I think Washington goes on the road and wins this one running away.

Pick: Redskins +1

New York Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6)

Back to another line that I don’t know which way to feel about. The Giants made a game against the Cleveland Browns look much more difficult than it should’ve been last week. Moreover, the Steelers have been a mixed bag and should’ve buried the Scott Tolzien Colts last week by more than just a closer-than-it-looked three scores. However, I’m going with my gut in this one. This feels like the game that the Giants drop in every season that mimics the one they’re currently playing in before going on another min-run heading into the postseason. At Heinz Field, give me the Steelers.

Pick: Steelers -6

Jan 17, 2016; Charlotte, NC, USA; Carolina Panthers wide receiver Devin Funchess (17) motions with the ball during the third quarter against the Seattle Seahawks in a NFC Divisional round playoff game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-7)

Sunday Night Football features a rematch from the Divisional Round of last year’s playoffs and a game that seemingly gets played every year (it doesn’t, but it feels that way). The Panthers and Seahawks have gone back-and-forth in recent matchups, but all have been exciting games. Yet, you might’ve assumed before last week that Carolina would be severely up against it in primetime.

Then Seattle went on the road and managed only five points on offense against the Bucs. Without a doubt, the Seahawks are a different team at home. However, the Panthers are the hungrier team at this current juncture and can—in theory—be able to put forth an effort with the front-seven to give the porous Seattle offensive line troubles. Russell Wilson and company may pull out the win, but I’m giving the Panthers the nod to keep it close and cover.

Pick: Panthers +7

Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) at New York Jets

The prevailing belief has been that Andrew Luck would be back for this game and ready to keep the Colts alive in the AFC South race. Then came reports on Friday that he was still seeing doctors about his concussion. So the possibility of the Tolzien show getting a sequel is still very real. Subsequently, this line right now should probably be “throw up your hands and pray.”

Luck or not, though, I’m getting wild and taking the Jets at home. With the cold weather of early December settling in, I think that the Colts look uncomfortable in this game no matter who plays quarterback. What’s more, Ryan Fitzpatrick hasn’t looked quite as abysmal as he did earlier in the year lately. I think the Jets are about to play spoiler and that starts on Monday Night Football.

Pick: Jets +1.5

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