National Football League

NFL odds: Week 16 picks — three-team teaser, moneyline parlay, more

Published Dec. 24, 2021 11:59 a.m. ET

By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Call me crazy, but this is one of the best weeks of the NFL season. People will point to the first two weekends of the playoffs, but how can you beat what we get this week? Fans and bettors get two games on Monday, two on Tuesday, one on Thursday, two on Saturday and a full slate on Sunday!

Yes, some joy from a full slate is tempered by COVID-19 continuing to wreak havoc on lineups, but such is life in 2021. No more complaining about how difficult these gambling situations are — there are only a few weeks left in the regular season! You'll be sleeping with a football in April when there's no NFL to bet on, that's for sure. (But hey, we will have USFL!)

So enough of the small talk! Let's jump into my best bets for the weekend, with odds courtesy of FOX Bet.

Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals (8:15 p.m. ET Saturday, NFLN)

If you've tailed the hot streak in this space lately, you know one trend that has emerged almost weekly is teams who didn't cover the week prior, facing teams that did cover. The market adjusts because the sportsbooks know that the public will bet what they saw last — recency bias.

The Colts snapped the Patriots' seven-game win streak; the Cardinals failed to cover as two-touchdown favorites against the lowly Lions. As such, this spread went from Arizona -5 on the look-ahead line to pick 'em.

Yes, the Colts are trending upward, and their punishing offensive line could roll over the Cardinals' front seven that has struggled to stop the run over the last two months. But it won't help to be down their starting center, Ryan Kelly. Two safeties will also be out for Indianapolis, which isn't good news facing Zach Ertz, who should put up big numbers against a secondary that has struggled to defend tight ends (two TDs permitted to Hunter Henry last week).

And can the Colts' improbable turnover streak continue? They lead the NFL in turnover margin (+14).

Expect Arizona to get pressure on Carson Wentz, as Vance Joseph loves to dial up the blitz (32.9%, the fourth-highest in the NFL). Tampa Bay, which is No. 1 in blitz percentage, really got to Wentz (two interceptions, fumble).

Kyler Murray won't do what Lamar Jackson did to this Indy defense (nearly 500 yards of total offense), but my prediction is he comes close.

PICK: Cardinals (-1 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 1 point

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

This spread was -2.5 until Wednesday, when quarterback Lamar Jackson didn't show at practice for the Ravens. Then some shops pushed the line to Bengals -3. When Jackson again didn't practice Thursday, some -3.5's even hit the market. If you got Bengals -2.5, you're sitting pretty.

Tyler Huntley has played exceptionally well filling in for Jackson, going 3-0 against the spread. While Huntley is 1-2 straight up, he nearly pulled off wins against the Browns and Packers.

Ultimately, this is about the Ravens' defense, which is very bad due to injuries. In the earlier meeting, the Bengals rang up 520 yards and 8.3 yards per play. It may not be that ugly again because the Ravens will probably utilize the ground game more to keep the ball away from quarterback Joe Burrow. Either way, the Bengals will move the ball and put up points.

Even though John Harbaugh is 8-0 ATS in same-season revenge games, I'm going to roll the dice with the Bengals here.

PICK: Bengals (-3 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 3 points

Detroit Lions @ Atlanta Falcons (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

The narrative is that the Lions are hot, winning two of their past three, with both wins against playoff contenders (Arizona, Minnesota). But then Jared Goff went on the COVID-19 list this week. Recent history has shown that, unfortunately, these aren't isolated incidents, and due to proximity, it usually results in clusters. Keep an eye on the Lions and the COVID-19 list this week.

This season, the Falcons have shown well against bad teams, only to fall when they step up in class. The Lions are not a step-up when it comes to this matchup. And, the last time Detroit won, they came out flat against Denver, got run over, and ultimately lost 38-10.

Atlanta wants to run with Cordarrelle Patterson and Mike Davis, then hit Kyle Pitts in play action. That will be more than enough to win and cover in this spot. Even though the Falcons probably shouldn't be favored by this much over anyone, I'll lay the points.

PICK: Falcons (-4.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 4.5 points

Three-team, 7.5-point Teaser at FOX Bet

Green Bay Packers teased from -7 to +.5

The Packers have the MVP (Aaron Rodgers), are tied for the best record ATS (11-2) and they're playing at home (6-0, five wins by double digits). Still, their point differential of +57 is only fifth in the NFC, and they tend to play down to their opponent and let them hang around.

The Browns could potentially expose this run defense and control the clock with Nick Chubb to keep it close (remember, Kevin Stefanski is 10-1 straight-up following a loss). Still, between issues in the secondary (two starters out) and Myles Garrett (groin) uncertain to play, the Packers' offense should roll. I'll take them in the teaser to just win the game.

Philadelphia Eagles teased from -9.5 to -2

The Eagles have been a goldmine in teasers this season, going 11-3 when teased by 6 or more points against the closing number.

Rookie coach Nick Sirianni discovered in the midseason that the offensive line was healthy enough to play bully ball, and the result has been seven straight games rushing for 175 or more yards. And, during that period, the team has gone from 2-5 to in the playoff picture.

The Giants are a mess, and the Eagles are out for revenge after Jalen Hurts threw three interceptions in a bad road loss to New York last month.

There's some concern about an outbreak on the Eagles (starting with Sirianni), and the short week certainly isn't good, so teasing down through the key numbers makes sense.

Los Angeles Chargers teased from -10.5 to -3

I debated this game all week because reports say the Chargers will be without Joey Bosa and Austin Ekeler, who happen to be the second and third-best players on the team. Sure, the Chargers can scrape by without them against the Texans, but the margin for error is tiny.

The market says the Chargers are the side, and the books want teaser protection, so the number will stay north of 10.

Historically, this is a game the Chargers have struggled in and even lost — similar situation against the Giants a few weeks ago, but Los Angeles rolled.

Random trend: Teams coming off a Thursday game and going on the road are 12-4-1 in the tiny sample size of 17 games. In Justin Herbert, we trust.

JMAC's Teaser

Packers +.5
Eagles -2
Chargers -3

Two-team Parlay at FOX Bet

New England Patriots moneyline

I won't bore you with Bill Belichick numbers off a loss — most of them came with Tom Brady — but the greatest coach in NFL history was so impressive in the earlier Buffalo meeting, I have to back him here.

Last year, Belichick nearly stunned Buffalo early in the season, losing on a fumble in the red zone late in the fourth quarter. Once the Patriots were eliminated from playoff contention, they only got blasted by Josh Allen and the Bills. But Allen's stats in the other six games were below average, and it's clear Belichick has his number.

There is some concern about the Patriots' pass-catchers and COVID-19. If that spreads in the coming days, it'll be bad news for rookie quarterback Mac Jones, so it's something to keep an eye on.

Kansas City Chiefs moneyline

This week, Kansas City is a tricky handicap because two huge names went on the COVID-19 list early: Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Both are reportedly vaccinated and expected to play, but you wait to make this wager.

With those two in the mix, the Chiefs will be favored in the neighborhood of 10 points. But there's a chance this line comes down to a field goal without both stars.

Pittsburgh was extremely lucky to beat the Titans last week, generating just 168 yards of total offense and 3.7 yards per play. But the Steelers won the turnover battle 4-0, which was the edge.

The Steelers don't have a discernable edge in this matchup, so teasing this number or putting the Chiefs in a moneyline parlay makes the most sense.

JMac's Parlay

Patriots moneyline
Chiefs moneyline

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.

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