National Football League

NFL odds Week 12: Bet on the Rams to handle the Packers (and more)

Updated Nov. 26, 2021 2:53 p.m. ET

By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

After back-to-back 3-1 weeks, it's confession time: Thanksgiving week has always been an Achilles' heel of mine.

I used to love coming home from college and having an entire week to do nothing. I'd devour college basketball tournaments, college football rivalries, the NFL, and of course, all of the food.

As I got older, along came marriage, children and familial responsibilities. Traveling to see family or vice versa, and all of this took me off my gambling game, as I'm routine-oriented.

During the early portion of the NFL season, you get into a groove with checking injury reports, reading beat writers, and going through a day-by-day process of breaking down the games. Who can do that Thanksgiving week with everything else going on?

Between a revenge game (Giants!), look-ahead spot (Patriots!) and teams plagued by offensive line injuries (Packers! Colts!), I'm doing my best not to let anything fall through the cracks — while also hanging out with my family.

With all that said, let's get to the winners, with odds courtesy of FOX Bet.

Tampa Bay Bucs @ Indianapolis Colts (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

Early in the week, the Colts were a fashionable pick. And then injury reports begin to trickle out, and all of a sudden, it looks like the Bucs could dominate the trenches.

Vita Vea is expected to return for Tampa Bay, which would be enormous in stopping the league's top running back, Jonathan Taylor. The health of Quenton Nelson — the All-Pro guard for the Colts — has compounded matters as it is possible he'll miss this week. Nelson was injured early in Week 3 against Tennessee, and Taylor was held to 64 yards on the ground. Not a coincidence.

Taylor fared well against Miami and Houston — as many have — but without Nelson in Week 5, the Colts had to change their approach. It was a Carson Wentz game. He had his highest QB rating of the season and passed for 402 yards against Baltimore. Wentz hasn't topped 275 yards passing in any other game and threw for just 106 (!) against the Bills last week while Indy scored 41 points.

If the Colts can't run on the Tampa defense, it becomes a Wentz game. As formidable as Tampa's linebackers are, they rank just 27th in defending running backs in the passing game. It might be worth taking a gander at Taylor receiving props.

I believe Tampa's offense will succeed against a slightly overrated defense, and the market agrees, as the total has ticked up from 52 to 53. The Colts rank 27th in pass defense in the middle of the field; Tom Brady historically has picked apart offenses over the middle, and this season, he has a 138.2 passer rating on passes of 10 or fewer yards over the middle.

Yes, Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS on the road this season with three outright losses, but it's a tiny sample size, and this number is an overreaction to Indy's win over Buffalo.

PICK: Bucs (-3 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 3 points

Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

The Rams have taken money all week, and the line has moved from Packers -2 to Rams -1.

LA comes into this game off two straight losses. Matthew Stafford played poorly in the first half in both of those outings, with a pick-6 in each.

This wager is more about the Packers. The injuries finally caught up with them last week, as the Vikings averaged 6.2 yards per play and had 408 yards. Minnesota was a hyper-efficient 9-for-13 on third down. The Packers rank 28th defending third down, but a few impressive weeks with a beat-up defense had people believing in this unit. The Packers' season-long numbers: 14th in defensive efficiency, 26th against the run.

Don't be surprised if Sean McVay comes out of the bye and the Rams have a few wrinkles in the offense — and for Odell Beckham. And if you believe in the "revenge" narrative, McVay probably lost sleep during the bye week wanting to get back at his longtime buddy Matt LaFleur for the playoff loss last year. The two coached together in Washington.

Nobody's ever got rich betting against Aaron Rodgers, and last week's win in this space was something of a gift after the late-game interception by Kirk Cousins was ruled incomplete.

Temperatures will be in the low 30s Sunday evening at Lambeau, and casual gamblers won't want to back Matt Stafford in that spot, especially if he's not 100 percent with the ankle injury. But I can't overlook the offensive line injuries to tackle Elgton Jenkins (out for the season) and David Bakhtiari (yet to play this season due to injury), and Aaron Rodgers being on a bum wheel against a defense that ranks third in the NFL in sacks (29) and 10th in blitz percentage.

PICK: Rams (-1 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 1 point

Carolina Panthers @ Miami Dolphins (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

My initial read here was that the Dolphins cornerbacks would jam the Panthers at the line of scrimmage, and because of Cam Newton's inability to throw the ball downfield — only one completion over 20 yards against Washington — the Dolphins would have an edge defensively. Then I saw the total plummet from 44 to 42. The two most key numbers in totals over the last five years in the NFL are 44 and 43.

The drop got me to look at how Tua Tagovailoa may do against this Carolina front seven. Yes, it was carved up by Taylor Heinicke last week (16-of-22, 206 yards, three TDs, no turnovers), but he's been a league-average quarterback under pressure. Tagovailoa has been one of the worst QBs in the NFL when pressured — five interceptions in only 221 dropbacks, which is tied for second-most in the NFL. The Panthers blitz relentlessly (sixth) and rank second in pressure rate.

To make things worse, Miami can't run the football behind that ragged offensive line — they haven't had a running back hit 70 yards in a game this season.

Carolina's Christian McCaffrey should take advantage of weak Miami linebackers in coverage, and the Panthers will win a low-scoring game.

PICK: Panthers (-1.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 1.5 points

Three-team, 6-point Teaser at FOX Bet:

New England Patriots -6.5 to -.5

I've been poking holes in the Patriots all season, and they keep making me look foolish. The Patriots are 7-4 ATS, and while they haven't beaten the best group of QBs, it's not like Ryan Tannehill is playing well. After four interceptions last week in a loss to the Texans, he's got 13 TDs and 12 INTs on the season. The memes are flying about how Tannehill looks like Miami-Ryan Tannehill now that Derrick Henry is out for the season.

With Julio Jones on IR and A.J. Brown banged up and not 100 percent, the Titans will have to win this game with defense because I'm not sure how the offense gets to 17 points.

Minnesota Vikings +3 to +9

The cardiac Vikings are the most dangerous 5-5 team in the NFL. Nine of their 10 games have been decided by seven points or less. After two convincing wins, the 49ers are taking money here, which means waiting on this teaser could get you +9.5.

Kirk Cousins leads the NFL in Touchdown-to-Interception ratio (21-2) and should have success against a pass defense that is among the most injured in the NFL.

Two years ago, in a playoff meeting between these two teams, the 49ers rushed for 186 yards and sacked Cousins six times. But that was a Niners team that was Super Bowl-bound. Unfortunately for San Francisco, this season's defense isn't Super Bowl-worthy.

Denver Broncos +2.5 to +8.5

The Broncos are off a bye, but the two weeks prior, they showed well, beating Dallas and then losing a tough one to Philly. The 30-13 finale was deceptive; it was 20-13 at the end of the third quarter when the Broncos fumbled in the red zone, driving to tie the game. Darius Slay's ridiculous 83-yard return for a score flipped the game.

The Chargers can't get margin on anyone because of a porous defense. Outside of a 28-14 win over the Raiders, their other five wins are by six or fewer. Los Angeles is the better side, but it'll find a way to make this game close against Teddy Bridgewater, aka the Cover GAWD (41-18-1 ATS).

JMAC's Teaser:

Patriots -.5
Vikings +9
Broncos +8.5

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.

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