Dallas Cowboys

NFC Divisional Playoff 2017, Packers vs Cowboys: Preview and Prediction

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 6:35 p.m. ET

Fansided, Stephen Forsha/FanSided via NFL Spin Zone

Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas CowboysWho is the better team entering the NFC Divisional Playoffs—the Dallas Cowboys or the Green Bay Packers? The Cowboys had the best record in the NFC and sealed home-field advantage for the playoffs with a 13-3 overall record this season, including a win in Week 6 against the Green Bay Packers. On Sunday, they square off at AT&T Stadium in the Divisional Round for a titanic matchup.Since Week 12, the Packers have won seven-straight games, including a Wild Card win over the New York Giants last Sunday, 38-13, at Lambeau Field. Since quarterback Aaron Rodgers said they would “run the table” following a 42-24 loss to the Washington Redskins in Week 11, the Packers haven’t lost.Related Story: 25 Unsung Heroes Who Could Shine in Divisional RoundSomething will have to give in the Divisional Round as either Rodgers will cool off, the Cowboys’ magical run will end, or neither will happen and one will just outlast the other. Will it be the overall consistent play of the Cowboys that has been displayed all season, or will the hot streak and excellent play of the Packers finally fizzle out?We’ll look at how each team got to this 2017 NFC Divisional Playoff on Sunday, what they need to do to get a win, and make a prediction as to who takes a spot in the NFC Championship Game. Here is your preview for Packers vs. Cowboys.Next: How Cowboys Got Here Nov 24, 2016; Arlington, TX, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) rolls out to score a touchdown against the Washington Redskins during the second half at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

How Cowboys Got Here

The Dallas Cowboys have completely done a 180 compared to last season. The 4-12 record from a season ago landed them with the fourth overall pick in the NFL Draft, resulting in them selecting a running back out of Ohio State named Ezekiel Elliott. The emergence of Elliott as the leading rusher in the NFL behind the best run blocking offensive line in the league, plus having a fourth-round rookie quarterback in Dak Prescott, has left the Cowboys enjoying great success. Prescott has a 23-to-4 touchdown to interception ratio, with 3,667 yards and a passer rating of 104.9 in his first NFL season.

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Elliott rushed for 1,631 yards to lead the NFL in just 15 games, averaging 5.1 yards per carry. The first-team All-Pro running back also rushed for 15 touchdowns, running behind three All-Pros in Tyron Smith, Travis Frederick and Zack Martin.

Don’t forget about the defense either, though, a unit that has risen to a level unthought of at the start of the season. But with Rod Marinelli calling the shots, the defense has outplayed all expectations. For proof, look no further than their stats, where they led the NFL in allowing just 83.5 rushing yards per game, while fifth in points allowed per game (19.1) and 14th in yards allowed per game (342.9). Due to injuries in their defensive backfield, the defense ranked 26th in the league in allowing 260.4 passing yards per game.

The Cowboys, who did win 11 consecutive games this season, wouldn’t be where they are without the kicking of Dan Bailey, who is 27-of-32 in his field goal kicking, including being 7-of-9 from 40-49 yards, and he also has three field goals of 50 yards or more.

Sep 25, 2016; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) scrambles away from Detroit Lions defensive lineman Anthony Zettel (69) while looking to pass in the second quarter at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

How Green Bay Got Here

Winners of seven-straight games, the Packers are one of the hottest teams in the entire NFL. Moreover, they’re operating behind possibly the best quarterback in the entire NFL right now in Aaron Rodgers, making them a tough task for the Cowboys this Sunday.

The Packers reached the Divisional Round by having a 25-point win over the New York Giants in the Wild Card Round. Before that, they defeated a handful of other playoff teams—the Houston Texans, Seattle Seahawks and Detroit Lions—in their winning streak.

Rodgers is the biggest reason for the Packers being this far along in the playoffs, leading the NFC North champions with 4,428 yards with a 65.7-percent completion percentage. He finished with 40 touchdowns and just seven interceptions for a 104.2 passer rating. Against the Giants in their first playoff game, Rodgers was 25-of-40 for 362 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions. The absence of Jordy Nelson (who’s been ruled out) looms large, though, in the passing attack. Even with Randall Cobb and Davante Adams, Nelson being out is a major factor.

The rushing game of the Packers has been a work in progress each week, with a variety of rushers taking the lead since Eddie Lacy was injured earlier this season. Ty Montgomery is a converted wide receiver to starting running back, with 77 carries for 457 yards and three touchdowns in the regular season. In the Wild Card Game, Montgomery rushed for 27 yards on 11 carries before leaving with an injury, while James Starks had 10 carries for 47 yards.

The defense of Green Bay is a top-10 run stopping team, ranked eighth in the league at 94.7 rushing yards allowed per game. But their defensive backfield ranks next-to-last at 269.2 passing yards per game allowed. During the regular season, Morgan Burnett led the Packers with 93 tackles and three sacks. The sacks leader on the Packers was Nick Perry with 11, while Ha Ha Clinton-Dix led with five interceptions.

Oct 16, 2016; Green Bay, WI, USA; Dallas Cowboys safety Byron Jones (31) knocks away a pass intended for Green Bay Packers wide receiver Randall Cobb (18 ) in the second quarter at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Cowboys Keys To Victory

1. Run the football — The Cowboys need to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field, and to do so, the best way is for the Cowboys to control the line of scrimmage with their stout offensive line. They need to hand the ball to a rested Ezekiel Elliott, along with former 1,000-yard rusher Darren McFadden and possibly Alfred Morris if he’s on the active roster, too. The Cowboys won many games by overpowering their opponent with their rushing game—including a win over the Packers where Elliott went for 157 yards—and they need to continue that trend if they want to win on Sunday.

2. Step up in the defensive backfield — If the Cowboys want to win, they can’t let the likes of Davante Adams and Randall Cobb dominate the game. Put pressure on Rodgers with their defensive line, and the defensive backfield needs to play their best game of the season. If the Cowboys can put pressure on the Green Bay quarterback, then there is a good chance they move on to the next round.

3. Convert on third down — The Cowboys are 80-for-189 on third down conversions this season, and with their 42.3-percent average in converting third downs, they’ll have to be even slightly better than their top 10 ranking. That’s because the Packers are second in the league at 46.7 percent. Rodgers is a master of converting in those situation and sustaining drives. To keep him off the field, the Cowboys need to be at their best in the same regard.

Oct 20, 2016; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Ty Montgomery (88) runs from Chicago Bears linebacker Willie Young (97) after catching a pass in the first quarter at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Packers Keys To Victory

1. Pressure the quarterback — Though the Cowboys are the best rushing team in the league, if the front seven of the Packers can pressure the Cowboys rookie quarterback heavily, they will increase chances for Prescott to make a mistake. He doesn’t throw many interceptions, but at times this season has made a few ill-advised passes. Green Bay sacked Eli Manning of the Giants twice in the Wild Card Game and forced one interception.

2. Force three-and-outs — Green Bay needs to keep the Cowboys defense on the field as much as possible. If they do so, they can take advantage of some issues the Cowboys can hide defensively when not on the field for a long majority of the game. Green Bay would be smart to play a no huddle on the Cowboys and force them not to rotate their defensive linemen when they get winded.

3. Add to their rushing attack — The Packers are known for their passing game, and that is great news in this matchup. Green Bay should be able to take advantage of some matchups with their wide receivers and passing game, but to really hurt the Cowboys, the addition of a running game would be a lot for the Cowboys to take on while trying to keep Rodgers in check. Green Bay rushed for 75 yards on 25 carries last weekend with one touchdown. That will have to be a larger number if they want to defeat the Cowboys on Sunday.

Dec 1, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant (88) celebrates his touchdown against the Minnesota Vikings in the fourth quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Cowboys win 17-15. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Prediction

Of all the Divisional Round games this weekend, this is the toughest to predict. Both teams are more than capable of winning this game, but only one will move on to the NFC Championship.

Do the Cowboys have the advantage after resting and getting healthy for the past two weeks? Or are the Packers the team with the advantage after playing in two games where they had win to gain possession of the NFC North, followed by a must-win Wild Card game the very next week?

Both teams have had—or are currently on—big winning streaks. Both of their quarterbacks have played at a high level this season, and both defenses have had their ups and downs in 2016.

That leaves the difference coming most likely in the trenches. The Packers have the task of trying to stop a Cowboys offensive line that has earned high accolades and blocked their way to great success this season. Though the Packers have the advantage at quarterback, the Cowboys are better with their offensive line and running back combo.

Though defense is said to win championships, as was the case last year with the Denver Broncos winning Super Bowl 50, this Divisional Round game will be won with offense. The Cowboys, with their offensive line and NFL-leading running back, have the advantage. If they play up to the high standards set all season long, they have the better chance to win this game.

Prediction: Dallas Cowboys: 31, Green Bay Packers: 27