Danny Amendola

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins: Prediction, Odds, Preview

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 8:05 p.m. ET

Fansided, Hal Bent/FanSided via Musket Fire

Dec 12, 2016; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) shouts to the sideline
during the first half of a game against the Baltimore Ravens at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stew Milne-USA TODAY Sports

The New England Patriots travel to Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida on New Year’s Day to face the Miami Dolphins at 1:00 PM televised on CBS.

New England is 13-2 and needs a win to lock-up home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Miami is 10-5 and trying to maintain momentum as they head into the playoffs under first-year head coach Adam Gase.

The New England Patriots lost their last two games at the end of the 2015 regular season to the New York Jets and the Dolphins and that ended-up costing them home-field advantage against the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship Game. This year they have avenged their loss to the Jets last year with a 41-3 thumping on Christmas Eve. Now the Dolphins await.

Odds:

After opening as a six-point favorite, New England is favored by 10 points by Bovada, 9.5 points at Caesar’s Palace, nine points at BetOnline, and 10.5 points at 5Dimes. A big part of the big point spread is that the Patriots have been ridiculous on the road this season. They are 7-0 straight up and 6-1 against the spread away from home.

Last week at home the New England Patriots were favored by 16.5/17 points and easily covered by beating the New York Jets by 38 points. However, the Dolphins are on a roll winning nine of their last ten games and are 8-1-1 against the spread. Bettors have been riding the Dolphins to easy money and will be looking to continue their run this week.

Sep 18, 2016; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick shakes hands with Miami Dolphins head coach Adam Gase after the game at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots defeated the Miami Dolphins 31-24. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Preview:

The Miami Dolphins are one the few teams in the AFC who can go head-to-head with Tom Brady and the New England Patriots’ explosive offense. The Patriots have already lost All-Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski for the season and will be without wide receivers Malcolm Mitchell and Danny Amendola on Sunday.

Miami is without starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill, but Matt Moore has led the the Dolphins to 34 points in each of the past two games as the starter. The Dolphins are 16th in points scored, but since week six they have topped 30 points scored five times and also had games with 26, 27, and 28 points scored (all statistics from NFL.com unless otherwise noted).

New England–despite starting the first four games of the season without Tom Brady at quarterback–are fifth in the NFL in points. Since Brady returned in week five they have topped 40 points twice and scored 30 or more points four more times. Brady has topped 400 yards passing in two games this season and has a 110.7 quarterback rating with 25 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions.

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In the tale of the tape on offense, the Patriots have the edge with an average of 385.6 total yards per game topping Miami’s 336.3 total yards. They lead in points per game 27.1 to 23.3 and third down conversion percentage converting 45.1% compared to Miami’s 35.2%. The Dolphins are close in rushing yards per game with New England edging them by a nose 116.8 yards per game to 116.6 yards per game.

Both teams have 1,000 yard rushers with Miami’s second-year running back Jay Ajayi and his three 200 yard rushing games totalling 1,213 yards and eight touchdowns. New England counters with LeGarrette Blount and his 1,110 yards rushing and 17 touchdowns.

At wide receiver, Julian Edelman leads the way for the Patriots with 90 catches for 955 yards. He is looking to top 100 receptions and 1,000 yards with a strong performance on Sunday. Miami counters with Pro Bowl wide receiver Jarvis Landry and his 85 receptions for 1,060 yards.

On defense, the New England Patriots top the NFL allowing just 15.7 points per game. Miami cannot match that number and are allowing 23.0 points per game. In yards allowed per game the Patriots have allowed an average of 329.5 yards while Miami allows a whopping 381.7 yards per game.

The Dolphins cannot match the Patriots’ stingy rush defense as New England allowed just an average of 89.5 yards rushing per game this season. Miami allows an eye-catching 141.8 yards per game rushing. In the passing game, the Dolphins have allowed 239.9 yards per game while New England is right there with 240.1 yards. Miami has the edge on third down as well allowing just 34.8% conversion rate and New England at 35.6%.

Miami is missing five key defenders from their week two loss to the Patriots with both starting safeties–Pro Bowl free safety Reshad Jones and Isa Abdul-Quddus–on injured reserve. Expect Brady to test back-ups Baccarri Rambo and Michael Thomas multiple times during the game.

At linebacker, veteran Koa Misi went on injured reserve in week three and promising young linebacker Jelani Jenkins is out this week with a knee injury. Miami is going to try to plug the gap with a combination of Neville Hewitt, Spencer Paysinger, and Donald Butler. Starting cornerback Byron Maxwell is expected to be out as well on Sunday.

New England was without starting linebacker Dont’a Hightower last week but did not miss a beat as Kyle Van Noy, Shea McClellin, and rookie Elandon Roberts picked-up the slack. Starting defensive tackle Malcom Brown was benched for disciplinary reasons for the first three quarters last week and his status in Bill Belichick’s doghouse in unknown.

The only other player on defense ruled out is rookie cornerback Cyrus Jones. Jones injured his knee and his role as fourth cornerback falls to Justin Coleman. The bigger question is whether New England exposes starting wide receiver Julian Edelman on special teams as punt returner. With Danny Amendola out and Pro Bowl special teams player Matt Slater on the injury report, running backs Dion Lewis and James White may be returning kickoffs and strong safety Patrick Chung back to return punts. Fumbles have hurt the Patriots on returns this season and the special teams need extra attention with all the injuries.

Dec 24, 2016; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick walks off the field after defeating the New York Jets 41-3 at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Prediction:

The Miami Dolphins are banged-up on defense and have little to play for with their seeding set. The New England Patriots are motivated and on a mission to not repeat the mistakes of 2015 where they came to Miami and ran the ball 17 straight plays fearing an injury to Tom Brady with an offensive line made of back-ups due to injury.

Going on the road to play a team with a suspect defense seems like the perfect opportunity for the Patriots to go to 8-0 on the road and continue their ability to cover double-digit point spreads. The Dolphins may score some points, but they will hard-pressed to keep up with the New England offense.

New England Patriots 34 – Miami Dolphins 20