Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans: Friday Fact or Fiction
Nov 13, 2016; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars kicker Jason Myers (2) and Houston Texans kicker Nick Novak (8) after a football game at EverBank Field. The Texans won 24-21. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
With the Houston Texans in the hunt for the playoffs, they get to open an early Christmas gift in the form of a terrible Jacksonville Jaguars team.
It’s the most wonderful time of the year… unless you’re a fan of the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Since 2007, the Jaguars haven’t given their fans much to be happy about this time of year and that trend has continued in 2016. Once at 2-3 with at least a speck of hope for a salvageable season, the Jaguars have lost 8 straight games and consequently positioned themselves for yet another top 5 draft pick
On the other side of the field this Sunday will stand the Houston Texans. When J.J. Watt was ruled out for the rest of the season, it was reasonable to expect the Texans to collapse under the weight of bad quarterback play and the loss of their defensive leader. Instead, head coach Bill O’Brien has found creative ways to snag wins away from division rivals and position his team for a playoff berth in an awful AFC South. It’s a stark contrast from what’s going on in Jacksonville, where Gus Bradley has literally set records for ineptitude while under-utilizing arguably the (second) most talented roster in the division.
So here we are, gearing up for another game on Sunday where the Jaguars should be able to match up and compete.
So what’s going to actually happen when the Jaguars host one of the better defenses in the NFL on Sunday? Will they play well or continue to embarrassing themselves? Click ahead to see my “rock solid” predictions:
Nov 13, 2016; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Houston Texans quarterback Brock Osweiler (17) got rid of the ball while taking a hit from Jacksonville Jaguars outside linebacker Myles Jack (44) during the second quarter of a football game at EverBank Field. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
Brock Osweiler will throw for more than 100 yards: FACT
When they played the Jaguars in early November, the Texans managed to win handily despite their quarterback only throwing for a meager 99 yards. It’s a strategy that has worked out well for every team facing the Jaguars this season – don’t make any mistakes, don’t force any throws, and just wait for the Jaguars to hand you the win. Blake Bortles in particular has been the opposing team’s MVP on multiple occasions thanks to some timely turnovers at key times.
Going back to Osweiler, he’s been a massive disappointment considering the contract he signed this offseason and the expectations levied on him. He’s only throwing for a little over 200 yards a game, and his 14:14 TD:INT ratio is one of the worst in the NFL (for comparison, Bortles sits at 21:15).
Knowing who he is, the Texans have essentially gameplanned around Brock’s deficiencies and it’s been working for the most part. Still, it’s hard to see them getting away with another game where he can’t break the triple digit yardage mark through the air. The Jacksonville pass defense looked awful last week against Sam Bradford and the Vikings, and it’s reasonable to expect the secondary to get beat every once in a while. Brock flirts with 250 through the air on Sunday.
Nov 13, 2016; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars running back T.J. Yeldon (24) is tackled by Houston Texans strong safety Quintin Demps (27) during the second quarter of a football game at EverBank Field. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
The Jaguars will rush for more than 100 yards: FACT
The Jaguars are not good at a multitude of things, but they might be the most inept at rushing the football. It’s curious, because a T.J. Yeldon-Chris Ivory duo sounds good on paper, but things just haven’t worked out at all with those two.
Over the course of the first 13 games, the Jaguars have crossed the 100 yard rushing mark 5 times (only one of those resulted in a win – the London game against the Indianapolis Colts). Of those 5 games, only ONE of those came as a result of good production from the running backs (the random 200 yard explosion against the Kansas City Chiefs). Bortles accounted for a substantial chunk of the rushing yards in the other 4 games.
With Chris Ivory out, the running game will continue to struggle. But, I still think the total yardage will end up looking decent. That’s because offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett has and will continue to utilize Bortles’ legs. With both the read-option and a newfound desire to scramble and run out of the pocket, Bortles has become an inexorable part of the running game.
Bortles has struggled mightily through his career against the Texans, so expect him to try and find a new path for success by scrambling and running some more.
Nov 13, 2016; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars defensive end Yannick Ngakoue (91) looks on prior to a play agains the Houston Texans at EverBank Field. Houston Texans won 24-21. Mandatory Credit: Logan Bowles-USA TODAY Sports
The Jaguars will record a sack: FICTION
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has improved vastly this season, to the point where they are an average, and at times above-average, unit. They have a solid secondary, good linebacker play, and a few impact defensive lineman.
Unfortunately, they still don’t have a pass rush.
Former third overall pick Dante Fowler Jr. is still clueless as an edge rusher, so the team has relied solely on third round pick Yannick Ngakoue to provide a perimeter pass rush. He’s exceeded expectations, but he hasn’t done it on a consistent basis and it’s held this defense back from being great.
The Jaguars will likely be able to draft a top tier pass rusher next May thanks to yet another high draft pick, but for now they are not going to bother opposing quarterbacks very much.
Are the Jaguars going to win another game this season? This Sunday might be their best chance, but they are facing a desperate Texans team that needs to continue winning to stay in the playoff hunt.
And again, I have to go back to the fact that Bill O’Brien is a pretty good coach. Gus Bradley is literally the worst head coach in the history of the NFL. It starts and ends there. The Jaguars have some talent and should be to able to compete/defeat a team like the Texans, but it’s completely irrelevant when the players aren’t prepared.
The other aspect here is that at some point, the despondence has to set in on the players as they know Bradley will be fired and this entire season is a dumpster fire. While most guys will continue to play hard simply because they have to, we’re going to probably start seeing some quit in a few players. The Texans win this one with ease.
PREDICTION: Texans 24 – Jaguars 10
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