National Football League

Green Bay Packers: Why they'll win, why they'll lose vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 11:15 p.m. ET

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In what appeared to be a last-ditch effort to galvanize the morale of his teammates, Aaron Rodgers publicly stated his belief that the Green Bay Packers can finish strong and “run the table” despite a four-game losing the streak that has dropped this preseason Super-Bowl favorite two games below the .500 mark.

In order for Rodgers to make good on his prediction, he and his cohorts must find a way—any way—to earn a win versus a young and scrappy Eagles team within the hostile confines of Lincoln Financial Field.

The 5-5 Doug Pederson-led Eagles are very much a mirror image of their NFC North opponent in that they can’t afford to lose another game if they harbor any realistic hopes of scoring a ticket to the playoffs.

But the similarities don’t end there. Much like their counterparts, the boys from the City of Brotherly Love are also prone to slow starts (see games versus the Lions, Redskins and Giants) along with chronic struggles in the area of pass coverage.

Unlike the Packers, however, Philadelphia is led by a rookie signal caller in Carson Wentz that despite possessing franchise-quarterback traits has experienced his recent share of growing pains as a result of defenses routinely penetrating the backfield and rattling the youngster with a series of body shots.

But while the Birds are limited offensively, they do feature an imposing front seven led by the likes of the overpowering Fletcher Cox at defensive tackle, relentless outside rushers Brandon Graham and Connor Barwin along with the rangy Jordan Hicks at middle linebacker.

Overall, the Packers’ upcoming adversary consists of an inconsistent group that is trying to find an identity, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. This team’s up-and-down nature is also a product of having a novice head coach in Doug Pederson that is handling duties as a full-time play caller for the first time in his coaching career.

Time management issues have plagued the former backup quarterback, as well as his lack of understanding as it pertains to game situations and how he uses his personnel.

This Monday-night affair looks to be a highly competitive contest between two teams that have their backs planted firmly against the wall. The one glaring difference is that the Packers came into the year with lofty expectations—the same can’t be said for the Eagles.

One can make arguments for either team coming out victorious in this Week-12 spotlight battle. Let’s delve into the reasons why Green Bay will break out of its funk and conquer its conference foe along with breaking down the factors that will send our guys back to Titletown with another soul-crushing loss.

Nov 20, 2016; Landover, MD, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) throws the ball against the Washington Redskins in the third quarter at FedEx Field. The Redskins won 42-24. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Why the Packers will win

1. Rodgers drives a stake into Philly’s secondary: The Eagles aren’t awful at defending the pass, but they do have holes in the secondary and have been slipping in recent weeks.

In three of their past four games, opposing quarterbacks have averaged 272 passing yards and three touchdowns per game against Jim Schwartz’s unit.

Cornerbacks Leodis McKelvin and Jalen Mills are both susceptible to technical breakdowns (i.e. not turning their heads around quickly enough and/or losing track of the football) with the former slowed by a persistent hamstring ailment and the latter possessing middling 4.53 speed..

Nolan Carroll is the steadiest of the bunch, but he’s no stranger to clutching and grabbing which often has the undesired effect of extending drives for the offense.

Rodgers, on the other hand, has carried the Packers’ attack on the strength of his right arm and both legs by throwing 15 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions over a five-game stretch and averaging 318 passing yards. He’s also been the team’s most consistent source of production in the ground game with 163 yards in his last four outings.

The Packers are both healthy and deep at wideout while the Eagles don’t have enough capable bodies to prevent No. 12 from producing yet another prodigious stat line, especially if the visiting team throws a few five-receiver formations at them (I’m looking at you, Mr. McCarthy).

2. And the hits keep on comin’ for Wentz: Philly’s young phenom hasn’t been sacked more than two or three times outside of one occasion, but the declining play of his offensive line has led to a number of poor decisions on the part of the North Carolina-born triggerman.

After an unexpected 3-0 start, the Eagles have increasingly put Wentz in situations where he’s had to throw the ball more with his team frequently falling behind early.

The rookie’s performance has leveled off due to constantly finding himself under siege as defenses have resorted to sending extra bodies at Wentz.

In addition to dropping his eyes when he senses the presence of an oncoming defender, the 23-year-old is forcing too many balls into double coverage.

And because of his frenetic play, Wentz has also fallen into the trap of rushing his delivery without setting his feet which is the reason why many of his passes are sailing over the heads of his intended targets.

Multiple injuries at right tackle have forced Pederson to line up the hard-nosed, but athletically-limited former Packer Allen Barbre on the outside while starting Stefan Wisniewski at left guard, who lacks the lateral quickness and length to excel in pass protection.

Clay Matthews’ hamstring injury has negatively impacted a Green Bay pass rush that was a major strength at the start of the season. Still, the defense has enough firepower in the form of Nick Perry, Mike Daniels and Julius Peppers to penetrate the backfield and send young Wentz running for cover.

3. Drop like it’s hot: Wentz may be wet behind the ears, but his poise, athletic skills and arm talent are very much reminiscent of Andrew Luck.

But while Luck hasn’t always been surrounded by the best supporting cast, he’s always had better receivers than Philadelphia’s sandy-haired field general.

His top three wide-receiver targets (Jordan Matthews, Nelson Aghlor and Dorial Green-Beckham) are all athletically gifted, but none are anything close to a true number-one pass catcher that Wentz can count on to consistently make plays.

Matthews is the best of the bunch, but he lacks the suddenness to consistently gain separation and drops too many catchable balls.

Agholor is a legitimate speedster with 4.42 speed, but his limited route running ability and lack of strength prevent him from winning his battles against next-level defenders that are immeasurably stronger than the ones he faced at USC. Currently, the former first-round pick is among the league leaders in drop percentage (9.09 percent).

DGB is Philadelphia’s version of Jeff Janis considering his inability to run to the right spots despite his size and running ability. Many have questioned his work ethic.

Nov 20, 2016; Seattle, WA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz (11) looks for an open receiver during the first quarter in a game against the Seattle Seahawks at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

Why the Packers will lose

1. May the Schwartz be with you: Although many have probably forgotten about Green Bay’s humbling 21-13 loss to the Buffalo Bills two seasons ago, Rodgers, Jordy Nelson and other team veterans surely have vivid memories of that gray Sunday afternoon in which a high-octane Packers attack was stifled by a tenacious defense.

The Bills’ defensive coordinator that day was (Jim) Schwartz, who devised a game plan that saw his hawkish defense hold the green and gold to one touchdown, three turnovers and force a late-game safety.

In only his first year at the controls as Philadelphia’s defensive play caller, Schwartz has turned his defensive personnel into a marauding unit that ranks 7th in sacks (26) while only giving up 5 rushing scores all season—only three teams (Baltimore, Detroit and Kansas City) have allowed fewer.

The defensive mastermind’s mean green machine has been especially stingy at home by surrendering 38 points on the year.

The Packers will need to keep the front seven in check if they hope to win the turnover battle.

(Brandon) Graham is the most dangerous among the Eagles’ pass rushers. Not only is he quick off the ball, but he wins with brains as well as brawn by anticipating plays at the line of scrimmage.

Although Packer bookends David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga are both sound pass blockers that can keep the likes of Graham and (Connor) Barwin at bay, the interior guys can be beaten especially with T.J. Lang out of the lineup.

Look for Schwartz to call twists and stunts to exploit that part of the line.

2. Too Fast, Too Furious: At 33-years-old, Darren Sproles remains Philadelphia’s top lethal weapon that can score from any part of the field as a runner, receiver or return man.

The undersized back has solid, but not extraordinary straight-line speed, but it’s his foot quickness and incredible change-of-direction skills that allow him to explode for sizable gains.

Sproles is averaging a healthy 5.0 yards per carry thus far.

With Ryan Mathews on the mend from a knee sprain, rookie Wendall Smallwood will likely see significant touches in the backfield.

The West Virginia product is a hard runner that uses his vision and quickness to get through small creases. Smallwood also features soft hands as a pass catcher, but don’t expect to break many tackles.

The Packers’ defense has fallen on hard times in terms of their ability to stop the run. A unit that once ranked first in that department has plummeted to 5th place among the league’s 32 teams.

This group has seen both DeMarco Murray and Rob Kelley break off runs of 75 and 66 yards for touchdowns in back-to-back games.

3. Ertz so good: The Stanford import has received some flak for getting off to a slow start earlier in the season. Many pointed out how Ertz went down a bit too easily after the catch.

Well, those critical observations have been silenced, as the 26-year-old has come all the way back from a nagging rib injury and established himself as Wentz’s most reliable weapon in the passing game.

Ertz has caught 20 passes for 187 yards and a touchdown over the past three weeks. That touchdown came against a stingy Seahawks’ defense and he should have had a second if not for a poorly-timed illegal-formation penalty by resident basket case (Nelson) Agholor.

The fourth-year veteran perfectly executes his assignments by running crisp patterns and demonstrating the ability to make tough catches.

In their decimated state, the Packers have no one that can cover a tight end of Ertz’s caliber. Micah Hyde and Joe Thomas are the best they have at this point…and that’s just not good enough. Just ask Delanie.