Dallas Cowboys

Green Bay Packers: Why they'll win, why they'll lose vs. Dallas Cowboys

Updated Mar. 5, 2020 2:17 a.m. ET

Fansided, Ralph Mancini/FanSided via Lombardi Ave

AT&T Stadium, aka the house that Jerry built, is the spot where two classic NFL franchises will clash Sunday afternoon in a Divisional Round showdown in which the Packers come in as five-point underdogs versus a 13-3 Cowboys juggernaut that features an offensive line that is as big as the state of Texas and physical enough to send any squad not named the New York Giants heading for the hills.

At first glance, this battle may have the look of a mismatch given how average the Packers run defense has looked lately and considering how a number of running backs—Jordan Howard, Rob Kelley and DeMarco Murray immediately come to mind—have gashed the front seven during the regular season.

Yet, the playoffs are a different animal where the team with the hot hand going into the postseason often continues to catch fire and rolls through the competition by producing big plays.

The all-important question in this game is: Can the Packers get on the front end of those explosive plays that will take the methodical Cowboys out of their comfort zone by abandoning its smash-mouth identity?

The visitors from the Dairy State would certainly benefit from the type of start they enjoyed versus Seattle on Dec. 11 that saw Aaron Rodgers connect with Davante Adams on a 66-yard scoring play about a minute and a half into the contest.

But while a fast start puts them in a favorable position, it hardly guarantees a “W” in that the Boys from Big D have their own passing-game weapons that ran circles around Green Bay’s secondary back in October…and did it without the services of Dez Bryant.

Look for this ball game to take on the look of an old-fashioned gun fight where the bullets will be flying, as both teams will look to unload their entire bag of tricks to claim their bounty and advance to the next round with Houston in their sights.

Let’s examine how both these combatants can win or lose tomorrow.

Why the Packers will win

1. Staying in Your Lane: To a man, just about every Packers’ defender has remarked how they played undisciplined football during their 30-16 home loss. Several players did this by abandoning their gaps in their attempt to penetrate the backfield and drop Elliott for a loss behind the line of scrimmage.

There’s no shame in giving up a three-yard gain by maintaining gap integrity and not giving Dallas’ rookie running back any enormous holes to exploit.

Green Bay gave up runs of 12, 14, 25 and 29 yards to Elliott in that Week 6 game, which set up play-action opportunities for Prescott.

It will take a collective effort to beat America’s Team with every lineman, linebacker and safety staying in their spots and preventing the opening of any cut-back lanes.

This doesn’t mean that Dom Capers shouldn’t dial up the occasional run blitz, but they will only work if the horses along the defensive line are holding up their man.

Yes, I know, it’s easier said than done, but limiting Elliott to 60 yards instead of 100 can make a world of difference. Every yard will count in this one.

2. Bulldog Shows his Teeth: Former Fresno State Bulldog Davante Adams emerged as the primary big-play threat versus the Giants last week in the wake of Jordy Nelson’s injury by being on the receiving end of plays that went for 18, 20, 23 and 31 yards.

In his third year as a pro, No. 17 has blossomed into a fantastic route runner that can baffle defenders with his sudden movements and head fakes.

The Packers offense is loaded with weapons in the form of Randall Cobb, Jared Cook, Ty Montgomery, Geronimo Allison among others that would make it nearly impossible for Dallas to continually roll their coverages toward Adams.

While no other player has developed the same type of chemistry that Rodgers and Nelson seem to share, the Packers’ signal caller has forged quite a rapport with Adams, as the 6-foot-2 receiver ranked third in the league in red-zone targets (22) and second in catches inside the 10 yard line (8).

The Cowboys’ top boundary cornerback Morris Claiborne will make his return from a groin injury that kept him out for over two months.

It would be fair to anticipate Claiborne being entrusted with the assignment of defending the 24-year-old pass catcher.

And while that certainly helps the opposition, Rodgers is so locked in at this point that even the tightest of coverages won’t deter him from zeroing in on his ascending pass catcher that has been there for him all year long.

3. Dez Runs into a Hurricane: Will there anybody out of the field that will be more motivated than seventh-year wideout Dez Bryant after failing to haul in a 32-yard throw that could have eliminated Green Bay from the playoffs two years ago?

But while the veteran playmaker will be doing his best to give fans and media pundits something else to talk about, it will be Ladarius Gunter’s job to follow No. 88 wherever he goes.

The one-time Miami Hurricane is Green Bay’s biggest corner and has proven that he can limit bigger, long-stridding opponents, as he did versus Alshon Jeffrey during the early part of the season.

Gunter is especially effective in being physical with his adversaries on short to intermediate routes.

What he lacks is long speed.

If Gunter allows Bryant to cleanly get off the line, the 29-yaer-old Cowboy has the ability to leave the young defender in the dust if he decides to go deep.

The game plan for the former ACC product is to get under the Texas native’s skin and force his man to make tough, contested catches.

Don’t expect Gunter to be afforded a ton of help coverage since priority one during the early downs will be to load the box against Elliott at the line of scrimmage.

It’s ok for Bryant to make his five or six grabs, but keeping him from busting out on the one big one will be the order of the day.

Why the Packers will lose

1. Dink, Dunk, Dak: Prescott had his way against the Packers in Week 6 by matriculating his way down the field with several underneath tosses to the likes of Cole Beasley and tight end Jason Witten.

The duo combined for 10 receptions for 100 yards, including two Beasley touchdowns.

A Packers’ secondary that has surrendered the third-most passing touchdowns (32) won’t suddenly turn into a no-fly zone and that’s why it will be essential for Clay Matthews—a no-show in the October game—and company to pressure Prescott into throwing the ball away instead of letting him survey the field.

The defensive backs, on the other hand, can’t get caught peeking into the opposing backfield because that’s exactly what happened on a 35-yard pass play to Lucky Whitehead in which Gunter was caught flat-footed.

Yes, discipline is the best prescription to guard against big yards after the catch.

2. Access Denied: One component of the Cowboys that’s rarely mentioned is its interior defensive line, which has been instrumental in shutting down opposing running backs over the past six weeks by holding them to a 3.51 yards-per-carry average.

But how will that be a significant factor against Rodgers, who will be looking to throw it all over the lot?

While the Packers have by and large become the epitome of a pass-first offense, let’s not overlook the role of Christine Michael last week in how he provided a much-needed spark in the third quarter.

At one point, the former Seahawk pounded out 27 yards on four straight carries, which afforded his quarterback a chance to breathe.

He at least gave the Giants something to think about while focusing on keeping the passing game under wraps.

Converting a couple of important 3rd-and-short situations could mean giving Elliott a few less opportunities to carry the football.

Both Michael and Aaron Ripkowski will be needed at some point to put their heads down and churn out tough yardage to extend drives.

3. Aerial Game Grounded without Air Jordy: What does Nelson’s absence mean for Rodgers and the entire passing?

Well, it deprives the quarterback of his most dependable target that often served as a security blanket on plays in which Rodgers was under heavy duress.

Can the same be expected out of Cook, who’s been known to drop a ball or two or Cobb, who is a heady performer, but can sometimes get lost in coverage due to his lack of size?

While Adams and Allison can certainly break free for some deep shot plays, someone will need to emerge as a steady contributor on shorter routes.

Maybe that player will be someone coming out of the backfield.

Don’t be surprised to see Montgomery utilized much more as a pass-catching weapon in an effort to loosen up Dallas’ downfield coverages.

Hi elusiveness to make people miss after the catch could pay major dividends.