Green Bay Packers

Fantasy Football: What to do with Jordy Nelson entering Week 8

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Fantasy owners, it’s time to sell Jordy Nelson.

A week is a long time in the NFL. Last week, I wrote that you should buy low on Jordy Nelson. He was still Aaron Rodgers‘ favorite target but was coming off a bad week, one that could drop his trade value in the fantasy arena.

But since Eddie Lacy and James Starks were sidelined, the entire Packers offense has changed. In a game in which Aaron Rodgers dropped back to throw 56 times, Nelson made just one reception for nine yards on four targets.

Nelson’s early-season fantasy production came from touchdowns. He scored five times in four games, but relying on touchdowns is a dangerous game to play.

Without a reliable run game, Rodgers is forced to throw short passes more frequently, benefiting Ty Montgomery and Randall Cobb.

Of Rodgers’ 56 passes last week, Davante Adams (16), Cobb (15) and Montgomery (13) took the lion’s share of targets, all three receivers making at least 10 receptions.

Nelson, in contrast, was a ghost. And it’s not simply because Rodgers was throwing short.

Jordy’s best asset has always been his ability to take the top off a defense. Through precise route-running, deceptive speed and great chemistry with Rodgers, Nelson routinely broke free downfield for huge touchdowns. The 2016 version of Jordy is a million miles from the one we used to know, and that’s the way it will continue to be. According to NFL.com’s Matt Harmon, Nelson offered the least separation from defenders among Packers receivers last week.

Yards of separation at target from nearest defender for the #Packers wide receivers tonight.#NextGenStats pic.twitter.com/R7Ek4yfwMJ

— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) October 21, 2016

That’s a concerning statistic for Rodgers’ previous go-to target.

Nelson, at 31 with a surgically repaired knee, has lost a step and is a shell of the player he was two years ago. Back in July, I wrote that “it’s easy to assume Nelson’s return will establish equilibrium on offense, but there’s a legitimate possibility he struggles to grab the bar once set so high.” Those fears have translated into reality, significantly dropping his fantasy value.

Adams is a volatile play at this point, but he appears to have the trust of his quarterback, and his upside is higher than Nelson’s. Adams is currently ahead of Nelson in receptions (28-27), yards (350-321) and equal on touchdowns (five), but his role is growing on offense while Nelson’s appears to be diminishing.

If you have Nelson on your roster, now is a good time to sell for as high as possible. While his recent form will concern fantasy owners, his early-season points totals paired with name value could help you land a solid WR2 in return. At this stage you’re better off trading Nelson for a player like Michael Crabtree. If you’re willing to roll the dice, Allen Robinson could be bought low.

Smart owners won’t touch Nelson, but if you can sell him on name value, do it.