San Francisco 49ers

Fantasy Football: The Ultimate Sell High Team

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Sep 17, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Denver Broncos wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders (10) catches a touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs in the second half at Arrowhead Stadium. Denver won the game 31-24. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

The NFL is a “what have you done for me lately” business and so is fantasy football. The key to trading a player is doing it while his stock is at it’s peak.

If a player has two or three good games in a row but then has a bad performance in their most recent game, their stock will take a slight hit. The key is to get rid of the player before he face plants and loses his mystic.

Another important part in making a trade is identifying which players are good sell-high candidates and which players you need to hold onto despite a couple bad games.

For example, heading into Week 3 Jaguars WR Allen Robinson only had nine receptions, 126 yards, and zero touchdowns. Yet, if you decided to panic and traded Robinson before his Week 3 game, I can safely assume you were hoodwinked.

Robinson was the eighth most targeted player in the NFL in 2015. In Week 1 he saw a league high 15 targets. Even though the fantasy points weren’t there, it was only a matter of time before Robinson was going to get his because the opportunities were going to be there.

The players I’m going to discuss in this article are players who are peaking but for one reason or another will see their production dip. For this particular team, I will not have a TE1 because nobody at this moment should be clamoring for a tight end. In plenty of 10-team leagues, there are a handful of low-end TE1’s still on the waiver-wire.

This is The Ultimate Sell High Team, Volume 1.

Sep 11, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) passes the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the first quarter at the Georgia Dome. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Matt Ryan, QB — Atlanta Falcons

In case you forgot, Ryan looked absolutely awful in fantasy football in 2015. He finished the year with only 21 touchdown passes and was responsible for 21 turnovers. He clearly did not look comfortable in offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan’s system and it bled over into the 2016 preseason (48.6 completion percentage).

Yet, between Weeks 1-3 of the NFL regular season, Ryan has looked like a completely different quarterback. He is averaging over 323 passing yards per game while totaling seven touchdowns and just one interception. He is currently the No. 1 quarterback according to ESPN standard scoring.

So why am I telling you to trade this waiver-wire darling?

Here’s why: in his first three games, he played against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Oakland Raiders, and New Orleans Saints. Each one of those defenses have been atrocious so far in 2016 (though the Raiders showed signs of life in Week 3). All three of those teams on average are allowing a passer rating of 104.8 or higher to opposing quarterbacks. They’ve also combined for just four interceptions.

In the Falcons next three games they will play the Carolina Panthers, Denver Broncos, and Seattle Seahawks. All three of those defenses are ranked in the top-five in passing yards allowed. These three teams have combined for eight total interceptions.

In Weeks 11, 12, and 13 the Falcons will have a bye week, the Arizona Cardinals, and Kansas City Chiefs, respectively. Both of those teams are solid against the pass and have multiple Pro Bowlers in the secondary. Those are two different, three-game stretches where Ryan may not even finish as a top-10 QB.

Sep 22, 2016; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots running back LeGarrette Blount (29) celebrates his touchdown run against the Houston Texans with the End Zone Militia during the second half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

LeGarrette Blount, RB — New England Patriots

After three games in 2016, Blount is averaging 25 carries and just under 100 rushing yards while combining for four touchdowns. According to ESPN standard scoring, he’s tied as the second-best running back in fantasy with DeMarco Murray. Yet, Blount’s numbers are going to come down soon.

In 2015, the New England Patriots finished fifth in the NFL in passing yards per game and in passing attempts per game. They also finished 25th in the NFL in rushing attempts per game. In 2016, the Patriots are 26th in passing yards per game and 31st in passing attempts. Yet, they are first in the NFL in rushing attempts per game.

So what’s the deal? Do the Patriots have a change in offensive philosophy? In short: yes they do—but not for long.

Between Weeks 1-3 the Patriots have started Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett. Both quarterbacks did not make their first NFL start until this season. The Patriots are obviously protecting these young QBs and are not asking them to do a lot in the offense.

That should be the case in Week 4 with Tom Brady serving the final game of his four-game suspension. However, once Brady comes back you can be sure New England’s passing attempts will rise and their rushing attempts will decrease.

Not to mention, Dion Lewis will also return at some point during the season. Although he’s not a early-down back, he is a player that will steal snaps and opportunities from Blount and some of them will be in the red zone.

Aug 20, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Carlos Hyde (28) runs the ball for a first down in the second quarter against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Carlos Hyde, RB — San Francisco 49ers

After three weeks Hyde is tied for the most rushing touchdowns in the NFL (4) and he is coming off a multi-touchdown performance against the Seattle Seahawks. As you guessed, this is the perfect time to sell high on Hyde.

In Week 2 against the Carolina Panthers, Hyde put together a pathetic performance when he only had 34 rushing yards on 14 attempts. He also managed to lose a fumble that went the other way for a touchdown.

For a majority of the game in Week 3 against the Seahawks Hyde was once again letting fantasy owners down but that all changed late in the fourth quarter. At the 7:54 mark, Hyde was sitting at 77 yards on 17 carries and no touchdowns as the 49ers were getting their doors blown off 37-3. In that remaining time, Hyde had four carries for only 26 yards, but managed two touchdowns and a two-point conversion.

Yes, touchdowns late in the fourth quarter in a lopsided game are just as good as touchdowns in the first quarter in fantasy football. However, if your plan is to depend on an average running back to get you points in garbage time, that’s not a very good plan.

Something else to consider is, back in 2012, Hyde missed two games with an injury at Ohio State. In 2014, he missed two games with an injury. He then missed nine games in 2015 with an injury before also suffering a concussion during the 2016 preseason. He is currently on-pace for 342 total touches. The most amount of touches Hyde ever had in a season was 224. And that was back in 2013 when he was at Ohio State.

Are we expecting a player with a checkered injury history to maintain his health over a 16-game season in the midst of the biggest workload of his football career? It’s not something I’m feeling to confident in. But hell maybe I’m wrong. Perhaps he’ll handle a full compliment of carries for every game this season and he’ll carry your fantasy team to championship glory.

Just keep in mind he’ll just be doing it at less than 3.9 yard per carry.

Sep 18, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones (11) reacts after the Falcons scored a touchdown against the Oakland Raiders in the third quarter at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. The Falcons defeated the Raiders 35-28. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Julio Jones, WR — Atlanta Falcons

Yep, I said it.

But before you go off the handle and lose your *stuff,* just give me a minute to explain myself.

First off, I understand this situation is a little bit different than the others because it’s not exactly like Julio Jones is peaking. Yet, his name and status still holds a lot of value. And owners will be willing to give up a lot to get him on their team. Now let’s get to the numbers.

In 2015 Julio was an elite receiver in a great situation. He was getting a ridiculous amount of targets, receptions and opportunities just about every game. Last year, he finished first in the NFL in targets (204) and tied for the most receptions (136) with Antonio Brown. On a per game basis, he was averaging 8.5 receptions on 13 targets. That is what we all expected to see in 2016. But so far that hasn’t come close to happening.

On a per game basis this year, he is averaging less than four receptions (3.33) on less than seven targets (6.67). He is currently on pace for 54 receptions and 1,003 yards on 107 targets for the season.

Among receivers, he is tied for 58th in receptions (10) along with Rishard Matthews and Mike Wallace. Out of all the players in the NFL, he is tied for 82nd in receptions. He is 34th in receiving yards (188) among receivers and 37th in receiving yards among all players.

Now, do I expect his numbers at the end of the season to exceed this current pace? Absolutely, but at the same time I don’t believe there’s anyway he comes remotely close to targets, receptions, and receiving yards he saw last season.

With all of this said, I wouldn’t let Julio go in a trade for nothing. In fact, I most likely wouldn’t take any one player for him straight up. However, in a two-for-one package deal, I would strongly consider it. Big time players bust every year and at every position in fantasy football. Is it that crazy to think it could happen to Julio?

Dec 20, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Denver Broncos wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders (10) runs after a catch against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the second quarter at Heinz Field. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Emmanuel Sanders, WR — Denver Broncos

In Weeks 1 and 2 Sanders combined for eight receptions, 88 yards, and zero touchdowns. He went off in Week 3, though, in a big way. The Broncos wideout finished with nine receptions, 117 yards, and two touchdowns. A performance like this from Sanders shouldn’t surprise us because we’ve witnessed Sanders do this before and he’s simply a great NFL WR.