New York Jets

Fantasy Football Knee Jerk: Sell High on Forte

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Matt Forte is the New York Jets workhorse, finding the end zone three times in Week 2. However, that onlymakes him a fantasy football sell-high candidate.

Drafting new New York Jets running back Matt Forte in the fourth-to-fifth round of your fantasy football drafts is looking pretty good right about now. You fleeced the entire league. You feel like you’re “king of the world!”

I’ll agree—after two games he looks awesome. Everyone in your league is envious of you. Not only are you the cat’s meow but I’ll go as far to say you are the bee’s knees too. Yeah, I said it.

However, if you decide to hold onto Forte and not trade him, you are a fool. Yeah, I said that too.

After two games Forte has totaled 264 yards and 3 touchdowns. It only took Forte two games to have the same amount of touchdowns as Buccaneers star receiver Mike Evans had all of last season. Wow!

After two games, he’s on pace for over 2,100 total yards. What. A. Stud.

Now do me a favor and put down your pom poms. Stop patting yourself on the back. Stop trash talking/texting the other owners in your league. As good as Forte’s numbers are after two games, you are looking at the wrong numbers. Touchdowns? Check. Rushing yards? Check. Fantasy football numbers? Check. You are asking yourself, “What other numbers are there?”

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Here comes the reality check.

In Week 1, Forte had 22 carries and 5 receptions. In Week 2, Forte had 30 carries and 2 receptions. That is a total of 59 total touches in two games. Right now, Forte is on pace for 472 total touches.

Is that a lot? The Houston Texans as a team finished with the fifth-most carries in the NFL last season with 472. When DeMarco Murray had his history making season in 2014, he had 449 total touches. Former Kansas City Chiefs running back Larry Johnson owns the NFL all-time record with 416 carries in a single season. Forte is on pace for 416 carries. However, Forte’s current pace of 472 total touches will be 15 more than Johnson’s 457 total touches in 2006.

Forte’s highest amount of touches in a single season is 379. That is 93 less total touches from the current pace he’s on. The difference? His 379 touches came back in 2008 when he was rookie, 22-years old and had fresh legs.

Let’s state the obvious: Forte can and will not keep up this pace. This is for one of two reasons, or maybe even both. First, the Jets coaching staff is going to cut back on his touches because they know he’s on a ridiculous pace. Secondly, he’s going to get hurt at this rate. One way or another, regression is in Forte’s future.

Your best move is to sell Forte while his stock is at it’s peak.

“That’s so stupid! You’re stupid!”

Maybe. But I’ll give you some more numbers just for fun.

Forte has 196 rushing yards on 52 carries so far in 2016. That comes out to 3.77 YPC. Last year “broken down” Frank Gore had 967 rushing yards on 260 attempts. That comes out 3.72 YPC.

Yikes.

Volume is Forte’s biggest asset right now and not his running ability. So what happens when that volume goes away? Listen, it might not be next week, the week after that, or even the week after that. But it will happen. Forte’s touches, numbers, stats and fantasy numbers will go down sooner or later.

Whether it’s a coaching decision or because his body can’t handle it is yet to be determined. If you want to stay on the Titanic as it sinks than that’s on you Jack Dawson.

My recommendation: get on a lifeboat and sell high while you still can.

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