Miami Dolphins

Dolphins season preview 2016: Predictions and analysis

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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The Dolphins are one of the most storied franchises in the NFL. Although anyone who’s watched them play football for the past, I don’t know, 15 years, would be forgiven for thinking otherwise.

Miami hasn’t reached the AFC Championship Game since 1992 — when Dan Marino was outdueled by Jim Kelly and the Bills — and is without a playoff win since 2000, back when Jay Fiedler was the starting quarterback and Peyton Manning was just beginning to wear the can’t-win-the-big-one label. We’re talking 21st century futility on par with Buffalo, the Detroit Lions, and Cleveland Browns. This is not the kind of company one wants to keep.

Something has to change for the Dolphins, and the South Beach faithful are hoping it will be the arrival of Adam Gase. A hot name on the head-coaching market for years as an offensive coordinator with the Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears, Gase finally broke away from John Fox to fill the Miami vacancy.

The 38-year-old comes to the Dolphins with credentials that include a Super Bowl appearance (with Denver back in 2013), as well as the personal endorsement of Peyton Manning, perhaps the ultimate honor for any coach on the offensive side of the ball. Unfortunately, Gase isn’t inheriting Manning in his prime. Instead, he’ll be tasked with helping take Ryan Tannehill, a young quarterback with plenty to prove, to whatever next-level he has.

Now 28, Tannehill faces something of a career crossroads. Despite the former Texas A&M star being signed through the 2020 season, Miami could walk away from Tannehill after this season — and with minimal financial consequences. To be sure, the Dolphins have to be pleased with Tannehill’s passing yardage increasing in each of his four seasons (reaching a peak of 4,208 in 2015), but concerns remain over his aversion to throwing deep. Not to mention the seemingly endemic double-digit interception marks.

In fairness to Tannehill, Gase and the front office need to focus on the offensive line, which surrendered an alarming 45 sacks in 2015. Branden Albert and Laremy Tunsil are expected to start on the outside, while Ju’Wuan James kicks in to play guard. With Mike Pouncey slated to start at center, the Dolphins have four first-round picks up front — a group Miami needs to both be healthy and productive, lest general manager Dennis Hickey be forced to look at making even more sweeping changes.

Tannehill has a terrific receiver in Jarvis Landry (110 catches for 1,157 yards last season), but not much else. Kenny Stills is a quality replacement for Rishard Matthews, who left for the Tennessee Titans in free agency. Running back Lamar Miller was also allowed to walk, being replaced by the talented but oft-injured Arian Foster.

Defensively, the perennially promising Dolphins have more questions than answers. They did snatch up former No. 1 overall pick Mario Williams, but even his play last season — Williams’ last for the Bills — was uninspiring at the best. The front office also released cornerback Brent Grimes, in hopes that second-round pick Xavien Howard can fit the bill. This is a unit that desperately needs Ndamukong Suh to wreak major pass-rushing havoc, why with both Derrick Shelby and Olivier Vernon having moved on during free agency.

If Gase can transform Tannehill into a true franchise quarterback, the latter will be well on his way to silencing any doubters. Miami is banking on this skipper-slinger duo being a cornerstone for the better part of the next decade, and a failure out of either will prove a significant step backwards for a franchise that can’t afford any more moves in the wrong direction.

Schedule

Week 1 – at Seattle Seahawks
Week 2 – at New England Patriots
Week 3 – Cleveland Browns
Week 4 – at Cincinnati Bengals (Thurs.)
Week 5 – Tennessee Titans
Week 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 7 – Buffalo Bills
Week 8 – BYE
Week 9 – New York Jets
Week 10 – at San Diego Chargers
Week 11 – at Los Angeles Rams
Week 12 – San Francisco 49ers
Week 13 – at Baltimore Ravens
Week 14 – Arizona Cardinals
Week 15 – at New York Jets (Sat.)
Week 16 – at Buffalo Bills
Week 17 – New England Patriots

The brutal beginning to their slate could spell doom for the Dolphins. While New England will be rolling out Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 2, beating the Patriots in Gillette Stadium remains a daunting task. With Miami likely losing to the Seahawks in Week 1, this early-season showdown could be a virtual must-win for the desperate Dolphins.

Weeks 10 and 11 also warrant watching, as Miami will likely stay on the West Coast for two weeks (unless Gase and Co. want to make consecutive trips across the country). Both the Rams and Chargers are beatable, but can Miami muster up the energy?

Draft class

Round 1 (13) – Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss
Round 2 (38) – Xavien Howard, CB, Baylor
Round 3 (73) – Kenyan Drake, RB, Alabama
Round 3 (86) – Leonte Carroo, WR, Rutgers
Round 6 (186) – Jakeem Grant, WR, Texas Tech
Round 6 (204) – Jordan Lucas, S, Penn State
Round 7 (223) – Brandon Doughty, QB, Western Kentucky
Round 7 (231) – Thomas Duarte, TE, UCLA

Miami might’ve gotten three immediate contributors out of this group. Tunsil falling to the Dolphins was the shock of the draft, fueled by his marijuana mask video being leaked at the worst possible moment. For Miami, it was a gift.

Howard looks to be coming into the secondary opposite Byron Maxwell, replacing the departed Brent Grimes. In the case of Drake, he will compete with Arian Foster and Jay Ajayi for touches in the backfield. The former Crimson Tide could initially carve out a role as a return man and third-down specialist.

Offseason moves

Acquired

Mario Williams, DE (2 years, $16 million)
Isa Abdul-Quddus, S (3 years, $13 million)
Arian Foster, RB (1 year, $3.5 million)
Kiko Alonso, ILB (Trade with PHI)
Byron Maxwell, CB (Trade with PHI)
Kenny Stills, WR (Trade with NO)

Lost

Lamar Miller, RB (HOU – 4 years, $26 million)
Olivier Vernon, DE (NYG – 5 years, $85 million)
Derrick Shelby, DE (ATL – 4 years, $21 million)
Rishard Matthews, WR (TEN – 3 years, $15 million)
Brent Grimes, CB (TB – released)

X-Factor

Can Ryan Tannehill become a franchise quarterback? Tannehill, a first-round pick back in 2012, has improved steadily — which, in an era where finding reliable quarterbacking is becoming harder and harder, is reason enough to stay the course. Still, he plateaued a bit last season, throwing for a career-high in yardage (4,208) but dropping from 27 to 24 touchdowns and holding steady at 12 pick-offs.

Miami has a talented receiver corps with Jarvis Landry, Devante Parker and Kenny Stills. With the departure of Lamar Miller, the Dolphins will have to throw early and often to win, and if Tannehill can’t make the proverbial leap, Miami will be in the AFC East basement.

Bottom Line

The Dolphins have too many holes across the roster to make a legitimate run at a playoff berth. Not to mention a first-year head coach who is bound to face a significant learning curve, owing in large part to a lackluster backfield and a mediocre offensive line.

All told, the Dolphins look primed for another last-place finish in the AFC East. Simply put, general manager Dennis Hickey didn’t make enough impactful moves to raise the bar in South Beach, which has remained woefully low since the retirement of Dan Marino in 1999.