National Football League

Carolina Lucks out in first mock

Published Jan. 3, 2011 12:00 a.m. ET

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Peter Schrager

For fans of 12 NFL franchises, the next few days and weeks will be dedicated to diligent postseason preparation and the playing out of potential Super Bowl scenarios.

For fans of the league’s other 20 teams, it’s time to start thinking about that three-day stretch in April in Manhattan. Yes, the NFL draft might be four months away, but it’s already on the minds of every fan whose team was eliminated from playoff contention on Sunday (or in October, for that matter). This year’s draft, April 28-30 at Radio City Music Hall, could be unlike any other draft before it.

A potential work stoppage could serve as a black cloud hovering over  the usually joyous weekend. If the players union and owners do not come to terms before April 28, the draft will still go on, but the entire three days will be dominated by the "Will there be a season?" question.

What would a work stoppage mean for the actual crop of 2011 draft prospects? Well, with the possibility of a rookie salary cap being put in place for the 2012 season via a new collective-bargaining agreement, several underclassmen — many of whom might not have gone pro in other years — could roll the dice and enter the fray in 2011.  In the next few days, several juniors and draft-eligible sophomores will declare their pro eligibility, even if many of the decisions will have pundits scratching their heads. These decisions will no doubt be criticized by several media members but could make a lot of economic sense.

This year’s crop of draft prospects is a unique one. If each of them leave school early and come out, there are five legitimate first-round quarterbacks (Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Ryan Mallett, Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert). There’s also a bevy of defensive line prospects worth taking in the first round. Whereas, in other years, left tackles have been all the rage, only three to five will be really worth considering for a first-round pick.

So, we do this with caution. And we also do this because it’s pretty damn fun. Assuming every underclassman comes out (big assumption, I know), here’s how I see the first 20 picks shaking out in April.

18. San Diego Chargers (9-7): Robert Quinn, DE/OLB, North Carolina: San Diego’s defense finished the season ranked No. 1 overall but could use another playmaker in the front seven, so insert a pass-rushing talent like Quinn. Suspended for the entire 2010 season for receiving about $5,600 in agent-related benefits and travel accommodations, and Quinn could be a bit of a character red flag. But at 6-5, 290 and with tremendous pass-rushing skills, Quinn should make for a nice fit in San Diego’s 3-4 defense. He led the ACC in tackles for a loss in 2009 and was expected to be a first-team All-America candidate this year. If he’s in the shape people say he is and works out well, he’s a top-20 guy.

19. New York Giants (10-6): Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State: The top-rated offensive tackle prospect on my board, Sherrod helped pave the way for a Bulldogs rushing attack that averaged 227.58 yards per game in 2010. The Giants offensive line — it was once the gold standard in the NFL — isn’t getting any younger and struggled at times in 2010. Giants fans will want that hole at gaping middle linebacker addressed, and perhaps they will at some point in the draft— but not in the first round.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-6):  J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin: Watt’s story is incredible. After transferring from Central Michigan, he worked at a Pizza Hut for six months while waiting to hear from Wisconsin coach Bret Bielema about whether he’d receive a scholarship. A consensus first-team All-Big Ten selection this year, Watt tied for second in the conference in sacks (7.0) and forced fumbles (3) and tied for third with two fumble recoveries. The Bucs struck gold all over in the 2010 draft and became the first team in NFL history to start 10 rookies and finish a season above .500. Gerald McCoy, Roy Miller and Brian Price are three young superstar interior defensive linemen. Watt, a high-energy pass rusher, could join them in forming one of the league’s top defensive lines.

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